Who won the 14:30 Bath on 12 September 2026?
Able Tasman (IRE) won the 14:30 Bath at SP 4.33. Ridden by Jack Mitchell. Trained by Archie Watson.
14:30 Bath
Best Betting Sites At freebets.com EBF "Confined" Restricted Maiden Stakes (Band C And D - No More Than 3 Runs) (EBF Restricted Qualifier) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
1m · Flat · Class 4 · Good · 12 runners · £5,400 · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 5thRace report
- 1stAble Tasman (IRE)Jack Mitchell·Archie Watson100/30·4.33SP
- 2ndDeira Moon (IRE)George Downing·Harry Eustace·beaten 1.75 lengths40/1·41.00SP
- 3rdOrchard Hatches (GB)Rhys Clutterbuck·Marcus Tregoning·beaten .5 lengths7/1·8.00SP
Race time
1m 41.36s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Able Tasman (IRE))
“Settled second early - slipped back to third with 3f left - found another gear when pressed 2f out - hit the front a furlong out drifting right close home - kept finding late to score clear”
AI top-rated Baarberini (score 56.4) finished 5th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way29.0/100 rating
Able Tasman
4.80Smarkets
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Why the model rates this top
Baarberini
Daniel Muscutt · James Horton · 2yo
Top-rated of 14
score 56.4 · +26.6 clear of next best (29.8)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight85very strong37d since last run (fresh)
- Form20% weight72strongLast 6: 3-2
- Ratings50% weight50averageOR 75 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight43small sample (n=6)James Horton: 1/6 winners last 14d (17%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
MarketBest price 3.50 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Bath 1m
full course data →Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.18).
Low (1–5)
IV 1.18
Mid (6–10)
IV 0.97
High (11–14)
IV 0.82
Today: Able Tasman (draw 4) and Biscaysian (draw 3) get the bias; Trispen (draw 11) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 106 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | J: Jack Mitchell · T: Archie Watson · draw 4 2yo · C · b | 3 | — | 29.0 | 100/30·4.33 SP |
| 2 | 5 | J: George Downing · T: Harry Eustace · draw 5 2yo · G · b | 7 | — | 12.0 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 3 | 11 | J: Rhys Clutterbuck · T: Marcus Tregoning · draw 12 2yo · F · b | 83 | — | 23.7 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 4 | 14 | J: Jack Doughty · T: Marcus Tregoning · draw 2 2yo · F · b | 0 | — | 16.5 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Daniel Muscutt · T: James Horton · draw 7 2yo · C · b | 32 | 75 | 56.4 | 2/1F·3.00 SP |
| 6 | 3 | J: Jack Callan · T: Michael Bell · draw 3 2yo · C · b | 54 | — | 20.5 | 3/1·4.00 SP |
| 7 | 12 | J: Stevie Donohoe · T: Owen Burrows · draw 11 2yo · F · ch | — | — | 25.5 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 8 | 8 | J: Finley Marsh · T: Jack Channon · draw 6 2yo · C · b | 7 | — | 18.0 | 6/1·7.00 SP |
| 9 | 10 | J: Dylan Hogan · T: Michael Keady · draw 8 2yo · F · b | — | — | 15.0 | 150/1·151.00 SP |
| 10 | 6 | J: Liam Wright(3) · T: Brian Meehan · draw 9 2yo · C · b | 63 | — | 29.8 | 28/1·29.00 SP |
| 11 | 9 | J: William Carver · T: Andrew Balding · draw 14 2yo · F · b | 90 | — | 20.9 | 100/1·101.00 SP |
| 12 | 13 | J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Zoe Hawkins · draw 1 2yo · F · b | 7 | — | 9.5 | 200/1·201.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Mason Paetel(3) · T: Ed Dunlop · draw 13 2yo · C · b | 53 | — | 22.0 | — |
| — | — | J: Jack Dace(5) · T: Oliver Cole · draw 10 2yo · C · b | 5 | — | 27.0 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:30 Bath?
No — the AI top pick (Baarberini) finished 5.
What were the placings in the 14:30 Bath?
Top finishers: 1. Able Tasman (IRE) (4.33), 2. Deira Moon (IRE) (41.00), 3. Orchard Hatches (GB) (8.00).
What was the winning time for the 14:30 Bath?
The winning time was 1m 41.36s.
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