Who won the 15:53 Redcar on 15 September 2026?
Pol Roger (IRE) won the 15:53 Redcar at SP 17.00. Ridden by Connor Beasley. Trained by Michael Dods.
15:53 Redcar
Market Cross Jewellers Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
1m2f · Flat · Class 4 · Good · 7 runners · £5,234 · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 2ndRace report
- 1stPol Roger (IRE)Connor Beasley·Michael Dods16/1·17.00SP
- 2ndSupplicate (GB)AI top pick · 60.6Jack Mitchell·Roger Varian·beaten 2.25 lengths5/4F·2.25SP
- 3rdMagical Merlot (GB)Jason Hart·Ed Dunlop·beaten 1.25 lengths9/4·3.25SP
Race time
2m 5.25s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Pol Roger (IRE))
“Sat behind pace - pushed along 3f out - hit front over 2f out and opened daylight by the furlong marker - stayed on well to the line untroubled”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.25 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way55.4/100 rating
Obito
4.50BetTom
Place portion settles at 1.88 · 1/4 odds · 2 places
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Obito
Obito holds a clear advantage over this field on our figures, rated nine pounds clear of the nearest pursuer Magical Merlot and a full ten pounds ahead of Supplicate, making a compelling case for a straightforward success over ten furlongs on good ground at Redcar. Magical Merlot and Supplicate are the most credible dangers, with Pol Roger also meriting respect at a further three pounds below Supplicate, though none of the three looks well-placed to bridge a gap of that magnitude if Obito runs to anything close to his rating. With the remainder of the field trailing considerably further adrift, this looks a race built for Obito to take control and see the trip out comfortably. The selection is Obito.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Supplicate
Jack Mitchell · Roger Varian · 3yo
Top-rated of 7
score 60.6 · +5.1 clear of next best (55.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Form20% weight95very strongLast 6: 5-1-1-1-1
- Freshness10% weight85very strong33d since last run (fresh)
- Ratings50% weight58averageOR 87 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight20weakRoger Varian: 2/26 winners last 14d (8%)
MarketBest price 2.52 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Redcar 1m2f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–3)
IV 1.12
Mid (4–5)
IV 0.96
High (6–7)
IV 0.91
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 56 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 7 6yo · G · bp | 823412 | 77 | 49.9 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 2 | 2 | J: Jack Mitchell · T: Roger Varian · draw 3 3yo · F · ch | 51111 | 87 | 60.6 | 5/4F·2.25 SP |
| 3 | 4 | J: Jason Hart · T: Ed Dunlop · draw 5 3yo · G · b | 534341 | 78 | 52.4 | 9/4·3.25 SP |
| 4 | 1 | J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 2 4yo · G · bh | 825513 | 86 | 55.4 | 5/2·3.50 SP |
| 5 | 7 | J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 1 3yo · F · chp | 35938 | 69 | 39.2 | 28/1·29.00 SP |
| 6 | 6 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Mike Sowersby · draw 4 4yo · G · bt | 224477 | 66 | 38.8 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
| 7 | 5 | J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Gemma Tutty · draw 6 3yo · G · b | 643 | 75 | 45.2 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:53 Redcar?
No — the AI top pick (Supplicate) finished 2.
What were the placings in the 15:53 Redcar?
Top finishers: 1. Pol Roger (IRE) (17.00), 2. Supplicate (GB) (2.25), 3. Magical Merlot (GB) (3.25).
What was the winning time for the 15:53 Redcar?
The winning time was 2m 5.25s.
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