Who won the 15:30 Ayr on 17 September 2026?
Cisco Disco (IRE) won the 15:30 Ayr at SP 17.00. Ridden by Clifford Lee. Trained by R. Mike Smith.
15:30 Ayr
IDP Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap Stakes (Div I)
1m · Flat · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 12 runners · £4,711 · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 8thRace report
- 1stCisco Disco (IRE)Clifford Lee·R. Mike Smith16/1·17.00SP
- 2ndKeats House (IRE)Joanna Mason·Michael & David Easterby·beaten 2.25 lengths18/1·19.00SP
- 3rdTarmonbarry Kid (IRE)Oisin Orr·Richard & Peter Fahey·beaten .5 lengths11/2·6.50SP
Race time
1m 47.11s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Cisco Disco (IRE))
“Handy early - shared front with rival before nudged along 2f out then went clear inside final furlong - stayed on strongly for the win”
AI top-rated Havana Touch (score 55.4) finished 8th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 20.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Calyxoh
Calyxoh arrives here on a progressive profile that makes the raw rating gap to the higher-placed runners less significant than it might appear, with the trajectory of improvement suggesting there is more to come over this eight-furlong trip on good-to-soft ground at Ayr. It'sneverjustone heads the ratings and will be the principal threat alongside Selection and Atmosphere, all three of whom are respected, but a horse moving in the right direction through a handicap can often outperform a static mark. On the strength of that upward curve, Calyxoh is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Havana Touch
M. P. Sheehy · John Butler · 5yo
Top-rated of 12
score 55.4 · +2.4 clear of next best (53.0)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong23d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight74strongLast 6: 2-1-2-6-1-2
- Ratings50% weight48below averageOR 72
- Trainer20% weight33weakJohn Butler: 2/15 winners last 14d (13%)
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ayr 1m
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–5)
IV 1.06
Mid (6–9)
IV 0.92
High (10–13)
IV 1.01
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 140 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | J: Clifford Lee · T: R. Mike Smith · draw 8 8yo · G · b | 87067 | 68 | 33.8 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 2 | 13 | J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 13 4yo · G · bbFT B | 775554 | 58 | 39.8 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 3 | 8 | J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 10 3yo · G · b | 56131 | 74 | 53.0 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 4 | 1 | J: David Nolan · T: Ivan Furtado · draw 11 4yo · F · chp | 267525 | 75 | 44.6 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Kevin Stott · T: David Loughnane · draw 9 4yo · G · b | 44600 | 74 | 37.3 | 6/1·7.00 SP |
| 6 | 6 | J: Jason Hart · T: Tristan Davidson · draw 7 4yo · G · bb | 322610 | 71 | 47.0 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
| 7 | 3 | J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Edward Bethell · draw 6 4yo · F · chp | 15389 | 73 | 46.3 | 4/1F·5.00 SP |
| 8 | 5 | J: M. P. Sheehy · T: John Butler · draw 1 5yo · G · gr | 212612 | 72 | 55.4 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 9 | 12 | J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 3 4yo · G · bp | 122730 | 61 | 41.9 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 10 | 11 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine · draw 12 7yo · M · b | 323342 | 65 | 43.3 | 17/2·9.50 SP |
| 11 | 4 | J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer · draw 4 4yo · G · bv | 32253 | 72 | 52.1 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 12 | 10 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 5 5yo · G · ch | 334513 | 68 | 51.5 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Paddy Bradley · T: Patrick Morris · draw 2 4yo · G · bb | 730430 | 71 | 36.5 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:30 Ayr?
No — the AI top pick (Havana Touch) finished 8.
What were the placings in the 15:30 Ayr?
Top finishers: 1. Cisco Disco (IRE) (17.00), 2. Keats House (IRE) (19.00), 3. Tarmonbarry Kid (IRE) (6.50).
What was the winning time for the 15:30 Ayr?
The winning time was 1m 47.11s.
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