Who won the 16:15 Ayr on 18 September 2026?
Empirestateofmind (IRE) won the 16:15 Ayr at SP 6.00. Ridden by Jason Hart. Trained by John & Sean Quinn.
16:15 Ayr
Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap Stakes (Div I)
1m · Flat · Class 5 · Soft · 11 runners · £4,711 · Friday, 18 September 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 10thRace report
- 1stEmpirestateofmind (IRE)Jason Hart·John & Sean Quinn5/1·6.00SP
- 2ndMotawaared (GB)Paul Mulrennan·Jim Goldie·beaten 1 length2/1F·3.00SP
- 3rdKelpie Grey (GB)Daniel Tudhope·Jim Goldie·beaten 3.75 lengths6/1·7.00SP
Race time
1m 44.97s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Empirestateofmind (IRE))
“Sat close to the pace - pushed to the front inside the final furlong - finished strongly to score”
AI top-rated Royale Union (score 55.1) finished 10th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 20.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Eve's Boy
Eve's Boy shares the highest rating in this eleven-runner Class 5 contest over a mile at Ayr on soft ground, and his progressive profile is the reason he is preferred over Empirestateofmind, who matches him at the head of the ratings. Flying Fletcher and Glorious Kitty are both close behind and cannot be dismissed lightly on a surface that can throw up surprises. Confidence is modest, but a horse still trending in the right direction holds the strongest claim in this grade, and Eve's Boy is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Royale Union
Sam James · K. R. Burke · 3yo
Top-rated of 11
score 55.1 · +7.4 clear of next best (47.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong23d since last run (race-fit window)
- Trainer20% weight58averageK. R. Burke: 12/53 winners last 14d (23%)
- Form20% weight55averageLast 6: 7-3-2-4
- Ratings50% weight45below averageOR 68 — highest combined rating in the field
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ayr 1m
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–4)
IV 1.06
Mid (5–8)
IV 0.92
High (9–11)
IV 1.01
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 140 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn · draw 6 8yo · G · bb | 099500 | 67 | 35.8 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 2 | 8 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 10 4yo · G · bp | 565422 | 59 | 46.1 | 2/1F·3.00 SP |
| 3 | 9 | J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Jim Goldie · draw 2 6yo · G · grvFT V | 068077 | 56 | 35.9 | 6/1·7.00 SP |
| 4 | 10 | J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 11 5yo · G · chb | 045632 | 53 | 40.0 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 5 | 6 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 7 4yo · G · bvFT V | 726687 | 62 | 40.5 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 6 | 4 | J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 5 5yo · G · grpFT P | 437696 | 66 | 37.7 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 7 | 11 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 9 4yo · F · b | 467376 | 51 | 38.9 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
| 8 | 1 | J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 3 4yo · F · b | 511264 | 68 | 47.7 | 15/2·8.50 SP |
| 9 | 7 | J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby · draw 1 11yo · G · b | 776417 | 59 | 40.5 | 125/1·126.00 SP |
| 10 | 5 | J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke · draw 8 3yo · F · b | 7324 | 68 | 55.1 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 11 | 2 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine · draw 4 4yo · F · gr | 131293 | 68 | 46.3 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:15 Ayr?
No — the AI top pick (Royale Union) finished 10.
What were the placings in the 16:15 Ayr?
Top finishers: 1. Empirestateofmind (IRE) (6.00), 2. Motawaared (GB) (3.00), 3. Kelpie Grey (GB) (7.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:15 Ayr?
The winning time was 1m 44.97s.
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