Who won the 16:45 Ayr on 18 September 2026?
Stoic Poet (IRE) won the 16:45 Ayr at SP 11.00. Ridden by Kevin Stott. Trained by Iain Jardine.
16:45 Ayr
Zenith Ltd Building Partnerships That Last Handicap Stakes (Div II)
1m · Flat · Class 5 · Soft · 8 runners · £4,711 · Friday, 18 September 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 6thRace report
- 1stStoic Poet (IRE)Kevin Stott·Iain Jardine10/1·11.00SP
- 2ndLittle Ted (GB)David Allan·Tim Easterby·beaten 1.5 lengths16/1·17.00SP
- 3rdPenelope's Sister (IRE)Rhys Elliott·Jim Goldie·beaten 3.5 lengths7/4·2.75SP
Race time
1m 45.96s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Stoic Poet (IRE))
“Pulled hard early - tracked the pace - pressed for effort 2f from home - moved through to the front inside the final furlong - stayed on strongly to score”
AI top-rated Ice Cube (score 52.7) finished 6th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.38 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way48.1/100 rating
Filly Eilish
13.00Matchbook
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Up The Jazz
Up The Jazz rates a pound behind the top-rated Stoic Poet on our figures, but a progressive profile and a fitness edge make a compelling case for preferring him at this trip on soft ground at Ayr. Stoic Poet heads the ratings and cannot be dismissed lightly, while Starliner and Ice Cube are closely matched just behind and will need to be accounted for in what shapes as a genuinely open contest over eight furlongs. Confidence is tempered by the competitive nature of the field, but the upward trajectory of Up The Jazz points to him being the one most likely to find improvement on the day. Up The Jazz is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Ice Cube
Saffie Osborne · Richard Spencer · 3yo
Top-rated of 11
score 52.7 · +4.5 clear of next best (48.1)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight70strong1d since last run (quick turnaround)
- Form20% weight65strongLast 6: 6-5-6-1-4-1
- Trainer20% weight60averageRichard Spencer: 6/25 winners last 14d (24%)
- Ratings50% weight41below averageOR 62
MarketBest price 3.55 (Betfair Exchange) · 2nd in the market of 11.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ayr 1m
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–4)
IV 1.06
Mid (5–8)
IV 0.92
High (9–11)
IV 1.01
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 140 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | J: Kevin Stott · T: Iain Jardine · draw 4 3yo · G · ch | 84279 | 67 | 38.5 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 2 | 11 | J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 3 9yo · G · chh | 722642 | 49 | 43.1 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 3 | 9 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 1 6yo · M · b | 435672 | 56 | 42.0 | 7/4·2.75 SP |
| 4 | 3 | J: Jason Hart · T: Ivan Furtado · draw 11 3yo · F · btFT T | 266155 | 69 | 48.1 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 9 5yo · G · b | 612752 | 68 | 45.0 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 6 | 8 | J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer · draw 2 3yo · G · gr | 656141 | 62 | 52.7 | 11/8F·2.38 SP |
| 7 | 7 | J: Alistair Rawlinson · T: Lawrence Mullaney · draw 8 4yo · F · btFT T | 6460 | 60 | 33.4 | 80/1·81.00 SP |
| 8 | 10 | J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 5 8yo · G · b | 533848 | 55 | 42.6 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 10 5yo · G · ch | 345130 | 68 | 46.6 | — |
| — | — | J: Mark Winn · T: Linda Perratt · draw 6 5yo · G · baybrownp | 262218 | 65 | 43.8 | — |
| — | — | J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Tim Easterby · draw 7 4yo · G · bp | 227309 | 61 | 38.1 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:45 Ayr?
No — the AI top pick (Ice Cube) finished 6.
What were the placings in the 16:45 Ayr?
Top finishers: 1. Stoic Poet (IRE) (11.00), 2. Little Ted (GB) (17.00), 3. Penelope's Sister (IRE) (2.75).
What was the winning time for the 16:45 Ayr?
The winning time was 1m 45.96s.
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