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Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)

6f · Flat · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners · £3,768 · Saturday, 19 September 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 6th
  1. 1st
    Operation Gimcrack (IRE)
    Sean Dylan Bowen·Bryan Smart
    5/1·6.00
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Asadjumeirah (GB)
    Ethan Tindall·Antony Brittain·beaten 0.1 lengths
    5/1·6.00
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Lord Abama (IRE)
    Rhys Elliott·Michael Dods·beaten 0.3 lengths
    11/1·12.00
    SP
Race time
1m 15.09s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Operation Gimcrack (IRE))

“Settled mid-pack - pushed along with a furlong left - closed strongly to reach the front-runner inside the final furlong - edged ahead close home to score by a whisker”

AI top-rated Tickets (score 57.2) finished 6th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 5.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Each-way57.2/100 rating
Tickets
8.00Coral
Place portion settles at 2.40 · 1/5 odds · 3 places

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Donald

Donald catches the eye on a progressive profile despite sitting a few pounds below the top-rated Territorial Star and Too Much, and over six furlongs on the Newcastle all-weather surface there is a credible case that his upward trajectory puts him in contention with those rivals ahead of him on ratings. Territorial Star holds a narrow edge at the head of the weights and cannot be dismissed, while Too Much and Lord Abama will also need watching closely in what looks a competitive Class 6 heat. That said, the confidence is tempered given the margins involved, and punters should be aware this is a speculative call. The selection is Donald.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Tickets

Cian Horgan(5) · Patrick Neville · 7yo

Top-rated of 10
score 57.2 · +12.7 clear of next best (44.5)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Trainer20% weight
    100small sample (n=7)
    Patrick Neville: 3/7 winners last 14d (43%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    16d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Form20% weight
    56average
    Last 6: 6-5-5-2-4-2
  • Ratings50% weight
    32weak
    OR 48
MarketBest price 8.00 (Coral) · 4th in the market of 10.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 6f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)
IV 1.02
Mid (5–7)
IV 0.88
High (8–10)
IV 1.09

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 571 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
13
J: Sean Dylan Bowen · T: Bryan Smart · draw 9
6yo · G · ch
150623
5937.6
5/1·6.00
SP
24
8yo · G · btp
869161
5844.5
5/1·6.00
SP
38
J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Michael Dods · draw 2
7yo · G · chb
778497
5035.7
11/1·12.00
SP
47
J: Rowan Scott · T: Rebecca Menzies · draw 7
3yo · F · bt
96507
5434.3
18/1·19.00
SP
56
3yo · G · b
43000
5534.0
9/1·10.00
SP
69
J: Cian Horgan(5) · T: Patrick Neville · draw 6
7yo · G · bt
655242
4857.2
11/2·6.50
SP
75
J: James Sullivan · T: Ruth Carr · draw 10
4yo · G · b
996957
5840.6
7/1·8.00
SP
82
J: Aiden Brookes · T: David Thompson · draw 5
6yo · M · brh
067154
6038.6
11/1·12.00
SP
91
J: Mark Winn · T: David & Nicola Barron · draw 4
4yo · G · ch
549421
6143.3
100/30F·4.33
SP
1010
J: Barry McHugh · T: Scott Dixon · draw 1
4yo · F · bp
685357
4530.8
50/1·51.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 19:00 Newcastle (AW) on 19 September 2026?

Operation Gimcrack (IRE) won the 19:00 Newcastle (AW) at SP 6.00. Ridden by Sean Dylan Bowen. Trained by Bryan Smart.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 19:00 Newcastle (AW)?

No — the AI top pick (Tickets) finished 6.

What were the placings in the 19:00 Newcastle (AW)?

Top finishers: 1. Operation Gimcrack (IRE) (6.00), 2. Asadjumeirah (GB) (6.00), 3. Lord Abama (IRE) (12.00).

What was the winning time for the 19:00 Newcastle (AW)?

The winning time was 1m 15.09s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org