Who won the 15:08 Ayr on 29 September 2026?
Tipsy Tiger (GB) won the 15:08 Ayr at SP 5.50. Ridden by Shane Gray. Trained by William Stone.
15:08 Ayr
Nairns's Oatcakes Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
1m2f · Flat · Class 4 · Heavy · 9 runners · £5,234 · Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 4thRace report
- 1stTipsy Tiger (GB)Shane Gray·William Stone9/2·5.50SP
- 2ndKeep An Eye On It (GB)David Nolan·Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood·beaten 0 lengths11/4F·3.75SP
- 3rdKokanee (IRE)Rowan Scott·Ed Dunlop·beaten 3.5 lengths14/1·15.00SP
Race time
2m 17.23s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Tipsy Tiger (GB))
“Held up at the back early - asked for effort over 3f out - stayed on strongly over 1f out - challenged for the lead and edged right inside final furlong - battled on to the line - beaten on the post but awarded the race in the stewards room”
AI top-rated Star Cast (score 55.1) finished 4th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 3.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way55.1/100 rating
Star Cast
4.80Matchbook
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Tipsy Tiger
Tipsy Tiger lines up level on ratings with Mano Chicago yet earns preference on a progressive profile that suggests there may be more improvement to come, which could prove the difference on a testing ten-furlong trip on heavy ground at Ayr. Mano Chicago is the obvious threat and cannot be dismissed lightly, while Star Cast and Kokanee are capable of making the frame if either of the principals underperforms. Confidence is modest in what looks an evenly contested affair, but the progressive case for Tipsy Tiger just tips the balance, and that is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Star Cast
Jake Dickson(5) · Gemma Tutty · 4yo
Top-rated of 9
score 55.1 · +2.0 clear of next best (53.1)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong17d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight70strongLast 6: 2-1-1-2-3-4
- Ratings50% weight53averageOR 80 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight23weakGemma Tutty: 1/11 winners last 14d (9%)
MarketBest price 4.80 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 9.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ayr 1m2f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.20).
Low (1–3)
IV 0.76
Mid (4–6)
IV 1.06
High (7–9)
IV 1.20
Today: Star Cast (draw 7) and Yermanthere (draw 9) get the bias; Keep An Eye On It (draw 1) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 57 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | J: Shane Gray · T: William Stone · draw 8 5yo · G · bp | 23464 | 74 | 43.2 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 2 | 9 | J: David Nolan · T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · draw 1 3yo · G · ch | 52312 | 76 | 49.3 | 11/4F·3.75 SP |
| 3 | 4 | J: Rowan Scott · T: Ed Dunlop · draw 5 4yo · G · b | 261894 | 76 | 46.1 | 14/1·15.00 SP |
| 4 | 2 | J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Gemma Tutty · draw 7 4yo · F · b | 211234 | 80 | 55.1 | 3/1·4.00 SP |
| 5 | 1 | J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 3 4yo · G · b | 69001 | 80 | 47.3 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 6 | 8 | J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 9 8yo · G · ch | 122618 | 73 | 53.1 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 7 | 5 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 4 5yo · M · bpFT P | 149225 | 76 | 45.2 | 17/2·9.50 SP |
| 8 | 6 | J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn · draw 2 4yo · G · ch | 613049 | 75 | 45.3 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
| 9 | 3 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine · draw 6 4yo · G · bb | 524230 | 78 | 52.4 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:08 Ayr?
No — the AI top pick (Star Cast) finished 4.
What were the placings in the 15:08 Ayr?
Top finishers: 1. Tipsy Tiger (GB) (5.50), 2. Keep An Eye On It (GB) (3.75), 3. Kokanee (IRE) (15.00).
What was the winning time for the 15:08 Ayr?
The winning time was 2m 17.23s.
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