Who won the 18:00 Newcastle (AW) on 1 October 2026?
Bill The Bull (IRE) won the 18:00 Newcastle (AW) at SP 9.50. Ridden by Robert Havlin. Trained by Adam Kirby.
18:00 Newcastle (AW)
Free Race Replays On Attheraces.com Nursery Handicap Stakes
5f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 6 runners · £5,234 · Thursday, 1 October 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 6thRace report
- 1stBill The Bull (IRE)Robert Havlin·Adam Kirby17/2·9.50SP
- 2ndBlake's Monarch (IRE)Jason Hart·Ivan Furtado·beaten .5 lengths11/2·6.50SP
- 3rdPeaceful Warrior (IRE)Shane Gray·Kevin Ryan·beaten 1.25 lengths4/1·5.00SP
Race time
59.46s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Bill The Bull (IRE))
“Settled in last of the group - moved up from over 1f out and finished with great power up the final furlong - got up late to win”
AI top-rated Not My Type (score 55.7) finished 6th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 3.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →v1.1-1.27 score
Havana Lightning
3.90Betfair Exchange
segment +6.3% · Flat · Standard · Class 4
Each-way55.7/100 rating
Not My Type
12.00Spreadex
Place portion settles at 3.75 · 1/4 odds · 2 places
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Bill The Bull
Bill The Bull is our selection at Newcastle, and he makes plenty of appeal on a progressive profile and a fitness edge that count for a lot over 5f on the all-weather. He sits only five pounds behind Kentucky Rain on our figures, a gap his recent improvement and sharpness can close. Kentucky Rain is the obvious danger as the top-rated runner, while Blake's Monarch, just a pound behind our pick, and Not My Type also have to be respected in a tight-looking contest. Bill The Bull gets the nod, though this is a narrow call.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Not My Type
Cieren Fallon · William Haggas · 2yo
Top-rated of 7
score 55.7 · +2.9 clear of next best (52.8)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight70strong7d since last run (quick turnaround)
- Ratings50% weight56averageOR 84
- Trainer20% weight53averageWilliam Haggas: 10/48 winners last 14d (21%)
- Form20% weight51averageLast 6: 1-1-5-5
MarketBest price 12.00 (Spreadex) · 5th in the market of 7.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 5f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–3)
IV 1.02
Mid (4–5)
IV 0.88
High (6–7)
IV 1.09
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 571 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | J: Robert Havlin · T: Adam Kirby · draw 7 2yo · C · bt | 418096 | 80 | 43.7 | 17/2·9.50 SP |
| 2 | 1 | J: Jason Hart · T: Ivan Furtado · draw 1 2yo · G · bt | 2601 | 86 | 51.0 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 3 | 6 | J: Shane Gray · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 3 2yo · G · b | 1404 | 80 | 51.1 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 4 | 2 | Havana Lightningv1.1 J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey · draw 4 2yo · F · grt | 5106 | 85 | 48.5 | 100/30·4.33 SP |
| 5 | 4 | J: Rowan Scott · T: Lemos De Souza · draw 2 2yo · F · bt | 20144 | 82 | 52.8 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 6 | 3 | J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas · draw 6 2yo · F · b | 1155 | 84 | 55.7 | 3/1F·4.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Ben Haslam · draw 5 2yo · F · b | 42268 | 67 | 38.4 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 18:00 Newcastle (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Not My Type) finished 6.
What were the placings in the 18:00 Newcastle (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Bill The Bull (IRE) (9.50), 2. Blake's Monarch (IRE) (6.50), 3. Peaceful Warrior (IRE) (5.00).
What was the winning time for the 18:00 Newcastle (AW)?
The winning time was 59.46s.
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