Who won the 18:15 Newcastle (AW) on 2 October 2026?
Big Tribe (IRE) won the 18:15 Newcastle (AW) at SP 12.00. Ridden by Jason Hart. Trained by Michael Appleby.
18:15 Newcastle (AW)
Insulation Contractors Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
6f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners · £5,400 · Friday, 2 October 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 3rdRace report
- 1stBig Tribe (IRE)Jason Hart·Michael Appleby11/1·12.00SP
- 2ndHigh Threshold (IRE)Daniel Tudhope·Archie Watson·beaten .5 lengths5/1·6.00SP
- 3rdAsheyra (IRE)AI top pick · 60.1Jack Mitchell·Roger Varian·beaten 0.2 lengths11/10F·2.10SP
Race time
1m 13.71s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Big Tribe (IRE))
“Prominent early - shaken up over 2f out - level with rival over 1f out - edged ahead 110yds out - held on to win”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.10 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →v1.12.11 score
Knightbolt
14.00Matchbook
segment +6.3% · Flat · Standard · Class 4
Each-way25.0/100 rating
Knightbolt
13.50Betfair Exchange
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Why the model rates this top
Asheyra
Jack Mitchell · Roger Varian · 2yo
Top-rated of 13
score 60.1 · +17.7 clear of next best (42.3)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong27d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight72strongLast 6: 3-2
- Ratings50% weight53averageOR 80 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight45below averageRoger Varian: 5/28 winners last 14d (18%)
MarketBest price 2.26 (Matchbook) · market favourite.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 6f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–5)
IV 1.02
Mid (6–9)
IV 0.88
High (10–13)
IV 1.09
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 571 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | J: Jason Hart · T: Michael Appleby · draw 5 2yo · C · b | — | — | 24.0 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 2 | 5 | J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Archie Watson · draw 10 2yo · C · b | — | — | 19.0 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 3 | 11 | J: Jack Mitchell · T: Roger Varian · draw 8 2yo · F · bh | 32 | 80 | 60.1 | 11/10F·2.10 SP |
| 4 | 6 | J: Jack Callan · T: George Boughey · draw 6 2yo · C · b | 9 | — | 14.2 | 80/1·81.00 SP |
| 5 | 8 | J: Robert Havlin · T: Simon & Ed Crisford · draw 12 2yo · C · grhFT H | 4 | — | 17.5 | 5/2·3.50 SP |
| 6 | 10 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Simon Waugh · draw 13 2yo · C · gr | — | — | 27.5 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 7 | 13 | J: Joanna Mason · T: Brian Ellison · draw 11 2yo · F · b | 34 | 70 | 42.3 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 8 | 7 | Knightboltv1.1 J: Shane Gray · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 9 2yo · C · b | 4 | — | 25.0 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 9 | 3 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Bryan Smart · draw 7 2yo · C · b | 7 | — | 32.0 | 80/1·81.00 SP |
| 10 | 1 | J: Harry Russell · T: Simon Waugh · draw 1 2yo · G · b | 80 | — | 23.2 | 300/1·301.00 SP |
| 11 | 4 | J: Ryan Sexton · T: Julie Camacho · draw 4 2yo · C · ch | 08 | — | 13.3 | 200/1·201.00 SP |
| 12 | 9 | J: Oliver Stammers · T: Grant Tuer · draw 3 2yo · G · b | 6 | — | 15.0 | 80/1·81.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Billy Garritty · T: Tracy Waggott · draw 2 2yo · F · b | 0 | — | 10.0 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 18:15 Newcastle (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Asheyra) finished 3.
What were the placings in the 18:15 Newcastle (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Big Tribe (IRE) (12.00), 2. High Threshold (IRE) (6.00), 3. Asheyra (IRE) (2.10).
What was the winning time for the 18:15 Newcastle (AW)?
The winning time was 1m 13.71s.
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