Who won the 18:45 Newcastle (AW) on 2 October 2026?
Finn Ironside (GB) won the 18:45 Newcastle (AW) at SP 3.75. Ridden by Elle-May Croot. Trained by Ivan Furtado.
18:45 Newcastle (AW)
Armah Switchgear Handicap Stakes
7f · Flat · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners · £3,245 · Friday, 2 October 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 11thRace report
- 1stFinn Ironside (GB)Elle-May Croot·Ivan Furtado11/4F·3.75SP
- 2ndSpartan Fighter (GB)Cam Hardie·Antony Brittain·beaten 0.1 lengths16/1·17.00SP
- 3rdVictory Sound (IRE)Connor Beasley·Mark Usher·beaten .75 lengths4/1·5.00SP
Race time
1m 27.21s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Finn Ironside (GB))
“Led from the start - pushed along 2f out - strongly pressed over 1f out - kept battling - tackled final 110yds - won by a head on the line”
AI top-rated Surprised (score 53.5) finished 11th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 25.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →v1.13.06 score
Cable Beach
6.60Smarkets
segment +7.8% · Flat · Standard · Class 6
Each-way48.7/100 rating
Palmarian
8.20Smarkets
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Just Queen High
Just Queen High heads our ratings on 71, narrowly ahead of Surprised and Finn Ironside on 69, and that edge is enough to make her the pick in a competitive Class 6 seven-furlong event on the Newcastle all-weather. Surprised and Finn Ironside are the obvious dangers, with Age of Baroque only a couple of pounds further back on 67, so there is little margin for error in a 13-runner field. Just Queen High has the best figure of the lot, and she gets the vote ahead of a tightly packed group. Just Queen High is our selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Surprised
Paul Mulrennan · Bryan Smart · 4yo
Top-rated of 13
score 53.5 · +4.8 clear of next best (48.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong18d since last run (race-fit window)
- Trainer20% weight95small sample (n=8)Bryan Smart: 3/8 winners last 14d (38%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
- Ratings50% weight43below averageOR 64 — highest combined rating in the field
- Form20% weight16weakLast 6: 0-6-3-8-7-0
MarketBest price 27.00 (Matchbook) · 9th in the market of 13.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 7f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–5)
IV 0.94
Mid (6–9)
IV 1.06
High (10–13)
IV 1.01
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 632 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | J: Elle-May Croot(5) · T: Ivan Furtado · draw 8 5yo · G · bt | 874521 | 64 | 43.6 | 11/4F·3.75 SP |
| 2 | 2 | J: Cam Hardie · T: Antony Brittain · draw 6 9yo · G · bv | 121971 | 64 | 47.8 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 3 | 10 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Mark Usher · draw 7 4yo · G · bp | 336215 | 51 | 40.2 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 4 | 11 | Cable Beachv1.1 J: Andrew Elliott · T: Tom Tate · draw 11 5yo · G · b | 43742 | 46 | 44.2 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 5 | 3 | J: Jason Hart · T: Christopher Kellett · draw 3 4yo · G · bt | 621122 | 64 | 47.9 | 15/2·8.50 SP |
| 6 | 13 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Fred Watson · draw 2 5yo · M · b | 77007 | 40 | 33.4 | 125/1·126.00 SP |
| 7 | 7 | J: James Sullivan · T: Ruth Carr · draw 5 4yo · G · bh | 128403 | 58 | 48.7 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 8 | 8 | J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Paul Midgley · draw 1 4yo · F · ch | 647554 | 56 | 35.3 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 9 | 9 | J: David Allan · T: Samantha & Jacqueline Coward · draw 10 8yo · G · gh | 400908 | 55 | 29.6 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 10 | 5 | J: Oliver Stammers · T: Jessica Macey · draw 4 5yo · G · b | 945240 | 63 | 44.4 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 11 | 1 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Bryan Smart · draw 9 4yo · F · b | 063870 | 64 | 53.5 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 12 | 6 | J: Jack Callan · T: Ian Williams · draw 13 4yo · F · chpFT P | 09097 | 63 | 36.5 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 13 | 12 | J: Faye McManoman · T: Brian Rothwell · draw 12 4yo · F · bh | 505880 | 44 | 23.7 | 200/1·201.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 18:45 Newcastle (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Surprised) finished 11.
What were the placings in the 18:45 Newcastle (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Finn Ironside (GB) (3.75), 2. Spartan Fighter (GB) (17.00), 3. Victory Sound (IRE) (5.00).
What was the winning time for the 18:45 Newcastle (AW)?
The winning time was 1m 27.21s.
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