16:55 Kempton (AW)

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7f · Flat · Class 5 · Standard / Slow · 13 runners · £4,187 · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick wonat SP 9/2F·5.50

1st
Arctic Tsar (IRE)AI top pick · 52.4
Hector Crouch·Clive Cox
9/2F·5.50
SP
2nd
Hidden Beyond (AUS)
Jason Watson·Charles Hills·beaten 4.25 lengths
18/1·19.00
SP
3rd
Nascent Star (GB)
Oisin Murphy·Hugo Palmer·beaten 0.1 lengths
5/1·6.00
SP

Race time

1m 27.00s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Arctic Tsar (IRE))

“Prominent early - shaken up to take over inside 2f out - kept finding powerfully up the final furlong to score comfortably”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way52.4/100 rating

Arctic Tsar

6.00Unibet

Place portion settles at 2.00 · 1/5 odds · 4 places

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Louis The Fifth

Louis The Fifth heads our figures on 88, four points ahead of Rollthedicebaby on 84, and that gap is the foundation of the case in a 13-runner Class 5 contest at Kempton over 7f. Rollthedicebaby is the chief danger, with Reddy on 80 and Shemiyla Star on 77 the other two to keep on the right side of, while a bunched mid-field on 75 and below leaves plenty needing to improve to get involved. Confidence is low, but Louis The Fifth looks the most likely to make his superior rating count, and he is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Arctic Tsar

Hector Crouch · Clive Cox · 2yo

Top-rated of 13

score 52.4 · +1.1 clear of next best (51.3)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
22d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
51average
Last 6: 8-6-6-1
Ratings50% weight
47below average
OR 71
Trainer20% weight
43below average
Clive Cox: 4/24 winners last 14d (17%)

MarketBest price 6.00 (Unibet) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Kempton (AW) 7f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.17).

Low (1–5)

IV 1.05

Mid (6–9)

IV 1.17

High (10–13)

IV 0.80

Today: Arctic Tsar (draw 9) and Sequel Star (draw 7) get the bias; Gold Reef City (draw 13) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 665 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	7	Arctic Tsar J: Hector Crouch · T: Clive Cox · draw 9 2yo · C · b	8661	9-05	71	—	—	52.4	9/2F·5.50 SP
2	12	Hidden Beyond J: Jason Watson · T: Charles Hills · draw 11 2yo · F · ch	32	9-01	67	—	—	49.2	18/1·19.00 SP
3	13	Nascent Star J: Oisin Murphy · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 4 2yo · C · b	440294	9-00	66	—	—	40.1	5/1·6.00 SP
4	5	Xochipilli J: Tom Marquand · T: Mark Loughnane · draw 2 2yo · C · b	43	9-06	72	—	—	45.0	9/1·10.00 SP
5	8	Gold Reef City J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 13 2yo · G · b	735	9-03	69	—	—	50.0	9/1·10.00 SP
6	3	Bullrider J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey · draw 10 2yo · G · bpFT P	2356	9-07	73	—	—	47.2	50/1·51.00 SP
7	4	Shemiyla Star J: Callum Shepherd · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 6 2yo · C · b	2403	9-06	72	—	—	46.7	17/2·9.50 SP
8	1	Louis The Fifth J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Michael Bell · draw 8 2yo · C · bpFT P	3245	9-09	75	—	—	49.9	9/1·10.00 SP
9	2	Rollthedicebaby J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon · draw 3 2yo · F · ch	210606	9-08	74	—	—	43.7	7/1·8.00 SP
10	10	True Charm J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Lemos De Souza · draw 12 2yo · G · bhtFT HT	2058	9-02	68	—	—	47.8	40/1·41.00 SP
11	9	Royal Titan J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Marco Botti · draw 1 2yo · C · b	9753	9-02	68	—	—	43.5	11/1·12.00 SP
12	6	Reddy J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton · draw 5 2yo · G · ch	323	9-05	71	—	—	46.9	5/1·6.00 SP
13	11	Sequel Star J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · draw 7 2yo · F · b	4344	9-02	68	—	—	51.3	25/1·26.00 SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:55 Kempton (AW) on 30 September 2026?

Arctic Tsar (IRE) won the 16:55 Kempton (AW) at SP 5.50. Ridden by Hector Crouch. Trained by Clive Cox.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:55 Kempton (AW)?

Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Arctic Tsar, won the race (AI score 52.4).

What were the placings in the 16:55 Kempton (AW)?

Top finishers: 1. Arctic Tsar (IRE) (5.50), 2. Hidden Beyond (AUS) (19.00), 3. Nascent Star (GB) (6.00).

What was the winning time for the 16:55 Kempton (AW)?

The winning time was 1m 27.00s.

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