14:25 Ascot

Off in 39m

Betmgm Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)

1m4f · Flat · Class 1 · Good To Firm · 5 runners · £53,874 · Saturday, 3 October 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 6-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

By The Book

No. 2 · score 77.1 · +0.8 clear of next best · best 9/2·5.30

Drawn 4, inside the favoured middle third at this course and trip.

Best value vs consensus

Royal Playwright

24·24.00 Betfair Exchange · +19% vs fair (consensus 20.18)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Al AasyDiffers from our pick

Al Aasy looks the one to beat in this five-runner Class 1 over a mile and a half on good to firm, with our figures putting him 6 lb clear of Tenability and a more substantial margin over the rest. That is a fair edge, though confidence is only medium. Tenability is the chief danger, with By The Book and Royal Playwright both capable of making it tighter, while Royal Power looks to have it all to do. Al Aasy is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

By The Book

Billy Loughnane · Charlie Appleby · 5yo

Top-rated of 6

score 77.1 · +0.8 clear of next best (76.3)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
100very strong
Charlie Appleby: 7/17 winners last 14d (41%)
Freshness10% weight
85very strong
42d since last run (fresh)
Ratings50% weight
72strong
OR 108
Form20% weight
63average
Last 6: 3-3-6-2-2

MarketBest price 5.30 (Smarkets) · 2nd in the market of 6.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(1)
4Royal Playwright
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(1)
6Tenability
Unknown(4)
1Al Aasy 2By The Book 5Royal Power Plage de Havre

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Ascot 1m4f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.18).

Low (1–2)

IV 0.75

Mid (3–4)

IV 1.18

High (5–6)

IV 1.11

Today: By The Book (draw 4) and Royal Power (draw 3) get the bias; Plage de Havre (draw 1) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 78 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	By The BookPick J: Billy Loughnane · T: Charlie Appleby · draw 4 · combo 13/39 (33%) 5yo · G · b	33622	9-05	108	—	—	77.1	5/1·5.93	5.3·5.30 Smarkets · -11% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets5.3·5.30Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20Matchbook5.2·5.20Spreadex4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 BetMGM4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00 Paddy Power4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 10 Bet4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 Bet3654/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00Bet Victor7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50BetWright7/2·4.50 Dragon Bet7/2·4.50 7Bet7/2·4.50
5	Royal Power J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Charlie Appleby · draw 3 5yo · G · bhOnly pairing	3114	9-05	111	—	—	76.3	6/1·7.12	6.2·6.20 Betfair Exchange · -13% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange6.2·6.20Smarkets6.2·6.20Matchbook6.2·6.207Bet5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00BetMGM5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 William Hill5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 10 Bet5/1·6.00Hollywood Bets5/1·6.00BetTom5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 Spreadex9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50
6	Tenability J: Harry Davies · T: William Haggas · draw 5 · combo 8/42 (19%) 4yo · G · btD	23131	9-05	114	—	—	72.0	13/8·2.61	2.28·2.28 Betfair Exchange · -13% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange2.28·2.28Smarkets2.26·2.26Matchbook2.26·2.26BetWright6/5·2.20 Dragon Bet6/5·2.20 SportingIndex6/5·2.20 Betano6/5·2.20 Ladbrokes6/5·2.20 Betfred6/5·2.20 BetMGM6/5·2.20 Bet Victor6/5·2.20 LiveScore Bet6/5·2.20Virgin Bet6/5·2.20Coral6/5·2.20 BetTom6/5·2.20 7Bet6/5·2.20 Spreadex6/5·2.20Hollywood Bets11/10·2.10SmarketsSBK11/10·2.10 Star Sports11/10·2.10 Boyle Sports11/10·2.10 Bet36511/10·2.10 10 Bet11/10·2.10 William Hill11/10·2.10 Quinn Bet11/10·2.10Betfair Sportsbook11/10·2.10Paddy Power11/10·2.10 Unibet11/10·2.10 Midniteevn·2.00
1	Al Aasy J: Daniel Tudhope · T: William Haggas · draw 6 · combo 4/7 (57%) 9yo · G · b2lb below win markDGoing 1/2	92131	9-10	112	—	—	70.9	11/2·6.53	5.8·5.80 Betfair Exchange · -11% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange5.8·5.80Matchbook5.8·5.80Smarkets5.7·5.70Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 Midnite9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50Paddy Power9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.507Bet9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 10 Bet9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 Bet3654/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00 SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00
—	Plage de Havre J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Andrew Balding · draw 1 · combo 16/71 (23%) 5yo · G · chD	63911	9-05	109	—	—	66.4	17/2·9.49	15/2·8.50 BetMGM · -10% vs fair Compare 8 books ▾ BetMGM15/2·8.50 7Bet7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Paddy Power7/1·8.00Matchbook1.2·1.20
4	Royal Playwright J: Jason Watson · T: Andrew Balding · draw 2 · combo 6/74 (8%) 4yo · C · b	31535	9-05	106	—	—	57.7	20/1·20.18	24·24.00 Betfair Exchange · +19% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange24·24.00Matchbook23·23.00Smarkets23·23.00SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00BetTom16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 Paddy Power16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00Midnite16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00 10 Bet16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00Betfred14/1·15.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 8–29 bookmakers per horse with the 19% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Betmgm Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)?

The Betmgm Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) is off at 14:25 on 3 October 2026 at Ascot (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:25 Ascot?

1m4f, Class 1, Flat, 5 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:25 Ascot?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:25 Ascot?

The AI top-rated runner is By The Book (score 77.1, best price 5.30). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:25 Ascot?

The market favourite is Tenability at a best price of 2.28. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — By The Book.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org