16:30 Killarney

Ireland

Killarney Races Beginners Steeplechase

2m5f · Chase · Good · 4 runners · €9,000 · Sunday, 4 October 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 5-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Impero

score 63.4 · +3.3 clear of next best · best 7/1·8.20

Best value vs consensus

Mister Loolah

70·70.00 Matchbook · +9% vs fair (consensus 64.27)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: ImperoAgrees with our pick

Impero heads our ratings on 131, four pounds better than Stede Bonnet on 127, and that is enough to make him the pick in a five-runner contest over 21 furlongs on good ground. Stede Bonnet is the chief danger and sits only a few pounds behind, so there is little margin for error. Time Is A Thief, on 117, and Woodstream Lad, on 102, are the other key dangers, while Mister Loolah, on 96, is the least likely of the quintet. We side with Impero, though our confidence is low.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Impero

Carl Millar(5) · Cian Collins · 7yo

Top-rated of 5

score 63.4 · +3.3 clear of next best (60.1)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Ratings50% weight
84very strong
OR 126 — highest combined rating in the field
Freshness10% weight
65strong
61d since last run (rusty)
Form20% weight
42below average
Last 6: 2-3-5-5-4
Trainer20% weight
33weak
Cian Collins: 2/16 winners last 14d (13%)

MarketBest price 8.20 (Betfair Exchange) · 3rd in the market of 5.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
4Time Is A Thief
Prominent(1)
Impero
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(2)
3Stede Bonnet 5Woodstream Lad
Unknown(1)
2Mister Loolah

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
—	ImperoPick J: Carl Millar(5) · T: Cian Collins · draw 0 · combo 2/11 (18%) 7yo · G · bpOnly pairing	23554	11-12	126	—	—	63.4	8/1·8.82	8.2·8.20 Betfair Exchange · -7% vs fair Compare 17 books ▾ Betfair Exchange8.2·8.20 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 Paddy Power13/2·7.50 Coral6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00Hollywood Bets6/1·7.00Unibet6/1·7.00 Midnite11/2·6.50Matchbook4.7·4.70
3	Stede Bonnet J: Jack Kennedy · T: Gordon Elliott · draw 0 · combo 16/108 (15%) 5yo · G · b	30230	11-12	126	—	—	60.1	6/5·2.18	1.86·1.86 Matchbook · -15% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook1.86·1.86Betfair Exchange1.85·1.85 Bet3655/6·1.83Virgin Bet5/6·1.83LiveScore Bet5/6·1.83Smarkets1.83·1.83Ladbrokes4/5·1.80 Coral4/5·1.80 SmarketsSBK4/5·1.80 William Hill4/5·1.80 SportingIndex4/5·1.80 Spreadex4/5·1.80Betfair Sportsbook8/11·1.73Paddy Power8/11·1.73 BetTom8/11·1.73 Betano8/11·1.73 Boyle Sports8/11·1.73 Quinn Bet8/11·1.73 Bet Victor8/11·1.73 BetWright8/11·1.73 BetMGM8/11·1.73 Dragon Bet8/11·1.73Hollywood Bets73/100·1.73Unibet8/11·1.73 Betfred8/11·1.73 Star Sports8/11·1.73 Midnite8/11·1.73 10 Bet4/6·1.67
5	Woodstream Lad J: Alex Harvey · T: David O'Sullivan · draw 0 9yo · G · bp	P2506	11-12	99	—	—	44.6	28/1·28.98	25/1·26.00 Bet365 · -10% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Bet36525/1·26.00Matchbook26·26.00Betano22/1·23.00 Betfred22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 Bet Victor22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00 Quinn Bet22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Star Sports22/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 BetWright22/1·23.00 Dragon Bet22/1·23.00Hollywood Bets22/1·23.00Unibet22/1·23.00 William Hill22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00 10 Bet22/1·23.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Paddy Power22/1·23.00 Betfair Exchange23·23.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00Smarkets21·21.00
4	Time Is A Thief J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Henry de Bromhead · draw 0 · combo 27/138 (20%) 6yo · G · chh	2F12	11-12	—	—	—	23.3	13/8·2.65	2.4·2.40 Matchbook · -9% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook2.4·2.40Betfair Exchange2.4·2.40Smarkets2.38·2.38SmarketsSBK5/4·2.25 Coral6/5·2.20 Spreadex6/5·2.20 BetTom6/5·2.20Hollywood Bets6/5·2.20SportingIndex6/5·2.20 Unibet6/5·2.20 William Hill6/5·2.20 Ladbrokes6/5·2.20 10 Bet6/5·2.20 Star Sports11/10·2.10Betfair Sportsbook11/10·2.10Betano11/10·2.10 Boyle Sports11/10·2.10 Betfred11/10·2.10 Dragon Bet11/10·2.10 Quinn Bet11/10·2.10 Paddy Power11/10·2.10 Bet Victor11/10·2.10 BetWright11/10·2.10 Midnite11/10·2.10 LiveScore Bet11/10·2.10Virgin Bet11/10·2.10BetMGM11/10·2.10 Bet36511/10·2.10
2	Mister Loolah J: Luke Burke Ott(7) · T: Alexander Ott · draw 0 · combo 0/8 (0%) 6yo · G · b	476PB	11-12	—	—	—	6.3	66/1·64.27	70·70.00 Matchbook · +9% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook70·70.00Smarkets65·65.00Betfred50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00Paddy Power50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00 10 Bet50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 Betfair Exchange42·42.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 17–28 bookmakers per horse with the 26% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Killarney Races Beginners Steeplechase?

The Killarney Races Beginners Steeplechase is off at 16:30 on 4 October 2026 at Killarney (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:30 Killarney?

2m5f, Chase, 4 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:30 Killarney?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:30 Killarney?

The AI top-rated runner is Impero (score 63.4, best price 8.20). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:30 Killarney?

The market favourite is Stede Bonnet at a best price of 1.86. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Impero.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org