19:15 Kempton (AW)

Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap Stakes

7f · Flat · Class 6 · Standard To Slow · 13 runners · £3,140 · Monday, 5 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (14 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Pickering Castle

No. 2 · score 44.7 · +0.5 clear of next best · best 13/2·7.40

Drawn 9, inside the favoured middle third at this course and trip.

Best value vs consensus

Pickering Castle (also top rated)

7.4·7.40 Betfair Exchange · +17% vs fair (consensus 6.35)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way44.7/100 rating

Pickering Castle

7.40Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Pickering CastleAgrees with our pick

Pickering Castle is our selection here, and his progressive profile earns him the nod over the top-rated Virtue Patience, who is only six pounds better on our figures in a Class 6 field of 13. At 61 he sits just a couple of pounds off Portman Blue and Ararat, so he needs little improvement to get involved over this 7f at Kempton, and an upward trajectory counts for plenty in a race of this standard. Virtue Patience is the chief danger on his rating, with Portman Blue and Ararat also capable of making the frame if Pickering Castle fails to progress again. Pickering Castle can get the better of them.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Pickering Castle

Stevie Donohoe · David Simcock · 4yo

Top-rated of 13

score 44.7 · +0.5 clear of next best (44.2)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
18d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
40below average
Last 6: 7-7-6-1-6
Ratings50% weight
39below average
OR 59
Trainer20% weight
35small sample (n=7)
David Simcock: 1/7 winners last 14d (14%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard

MarketBest price 7.40 (Betfair Exchange) · 4th in the market of 13.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
11Twitch
Prominent(4)
3Virtue Patience 9Kondratiev Wave 14Maury Forever My Prince
Mid-division(2)
1Portman Blue 13Ashford Hill
Hold-up / closers(6)
4Ararat 5Camera Shy 6Fort Augustus 7Addictive 8Wildfell 12Ajrad
Unknown(1)
2Pickering Castle

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Kempton (AW) 7f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.17).

Low (1–5)

IV 1.05

Mid (6–10)

IV 1.17

High (11–14)

IV 0.80

Today: Pickering Castle (draw 9) and Fort Augustus (draw 6) get the bias; Kondratiev Wave (draw 12) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 665 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	Pickering CastlePick J: Stevie Donohoe · T: David Simcock · draw 9 4yo · G · bDOnly runner	77616	9-08	59	—	—	44.7	11/2·6.35	7.4·7.40 Betfair Exchange · +17% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange7.4·7.40 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00Smarkets7·7.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Midnite4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00Matchbook4.8·4.80Quinn Bet7/2·4.50 Unibet7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 7Bet7/2·4.50 BetTom7/2·4.50 BetWright7/2·4.50 Bet Victor7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 William Hill7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50 Star Sports7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50 Boyle Sports7/2·4.50Hollywood Bets10/3·4.33
9	Kondratiev Wave J: Kieren Fox · T: Tony Carroll · draw 12 · combo 2/19 (11%) 9yo · G · chp	246243	9-03	54	—	—	44.2	15/2·8.47	8.8·8.80 Smarkets · +4% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Smarkets8.8·8.80SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50Matchbook8.4·8.40Betfair Exchange7.2·7.20 Bet36511/2·6.50 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 BetMGM5/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 7Bet5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 William Hill5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50
4	Ararat J: Jack Mitchell · T: Rachel Cook & John Bridger · draw 1 · combo 1/5 (20%) 6yo · G · bOnly runner	085666	9-08	59	—	—	43.1	7/1·7.76	6.2·6.20 Matchbook · -20% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook6.2·6.20Betfair Exchange6·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00Hollywood Bets5/1·6.00Bet3655/1·6.00 7Bet5/1·6.00 SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00Smarkets6·6.00BetWright5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 Paddy Power9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50BetTom9/2·5.50 Midnite9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 William Hill4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00BetMGM4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00
11	Twitch J: Georgia Dobie · T: Craig Benton · draw 2 · combo 2/19 (11%) 9yo · G · brbDOnly ride	256421	9-02	53	—	—	40.7	6/1·7.06	7.2·7.20 Betfair Exchange · +2% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange7.2·7.20 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00Smarkets7·7.00Matchbook6.4·6.40Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50Midnite9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 7Bet4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 BetMGM4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00
12	Ajrad J: Finley Marsh · T: Rod Millman · draw 11 8yo · G · chOnly pairing	535446	8-12	49	—	—	37.6	22/1·23.99	22·22.00 Matchbook · -8% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook22·22.00Smarkets22·22.00SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Betfair Exchange18·18.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00Star Sports16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00
6	Fort Augustus J: Jason Watson · T: Charlie Wallis · draw 6 4yo · G · bhpDOnly runner	616100	9-06	57	—	—	35.5	40/1·40.93	33/1·34.00 Bet365 · -17% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Bet36533/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 7Bet30/1·31.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Bet Victor28/1·29.00Hollywood Bets28/1·29.00William Hill28/1·29.00Betfair Sportsbook28/1·29.00Paddy Power28/1·29.00 Betano28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 Boyle Sports28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00Smarkets28·28.00Matchbook28·28.00BetMGM25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Betfair Exchange22·22.00
3	Virtue Patience J: Pat Dobbs · T: Amanda Perrett · draw 3 4yo · G · bbFT BClass dropOnly runner	364749	9-08	59	—	—	35.0	14/1·15.52	11.5·11.50 Matchbook · -26% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook11.5·11.50Smarkets11.5·11.50SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00Betfair Sportsbook10/1·11.00Paddy Power10/1·11.00 Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 SmarketsSBK10/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 Betfair Exchange10·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00Unibet9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Boyle Sports7/1·8.00
1	Portman Blue J: David Egan · T: Joseph Parr · draw 4 4yo · G · btpFT TPOnly runner	866677	9-09	60	—	—	33.4	6/1·7.06	9/2·5.50 Betano · -22% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betano9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 7Bet4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00Paddy Power4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 Betfair Exchange5·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00Matchbook5·5.00Star Sports4/1·5.00Smarkets4.9·4.90Betfred7/2·4.50 BetMGM7/2·4.50 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Midnite7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 William Hill3/1·4.00
5	Camera Shy J: Cieren Fallon · T: Michael Dods · draw 5 4yo · G · btpClass dropOnly runner	645590	9-07	58	—	—	32.7	10/1·10.58	9.8·9.80 Matchbook · -7% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook9.8·9.80Smarkets9.6·9.60Betfair Exchange9.4·9.40 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Bet3657/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 BetWright13/2·7.50 7Bet13/2·7.50 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50Paddy Power13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50Hollywood Bets13/2·7.50Coral13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50 William Hill13/2·7.50 BetMGM13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00
13	Ashford Hill J: Isobelle Chalmers(7) · T: Dominic Ffrench Davis · draw 10 · combo 0/5 (0%) 5yo · M · bOnly rideOnly runner	639376	8-09	45	—	—	30.6	40/1·40.93	33/1·34.00 Paddy Power · -17% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Paddy Power33/1·34.00 Bet36533/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.007Bet30/1·31.00 Boyle Sports28/1·29.00 Midnite28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 Bet Victor28/1·29.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 Betano28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00Matchbook28·28.00Smarkets28·28.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00BetMGM25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Betfair Exchange22·22.00
7	Addictive J: Olivia Tubb(5) · T: Craig Benton · draw 8 4yo · G · bOnly pairing	30678	9-04	55	—	—	27.9	40/1·40.93	33/1·34.00 Bet365 · -17% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Bet36533/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 7Bet30/1·31.00Betfair Sportsbook28/1·29.00Paddy Power28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Bet Victor28/1·29.00Hollywood Bets28/1·29.00William Hill28/1·29.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00 Betano28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 Boyle Sports28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00Matchbook28·28.00Smarkets28·28.00BetMGM25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00Betfair Exchange22·22.00
—	Forever My Prince J: Charles Bishop · T: Michael Blake · draw 14 4yo · G · bbOnly runner	565690	9-03	54	—	—	27.6	—	—
14	Maury J: Josephine Gordon · T: Craig Benton · draw 7 4yo · G · bOnly pairing	489797	8-09	45	—	—	27.5	40/1·40.93	33/1·34.00 Bet365 · -17% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Bet36533/1·34.00 7Bet30/1·31.00 Bet Victor28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00Betfair Sportsbook28/1·29.00Paddy Power28/1·29.00 Midnite28/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Betano28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00BetTom25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00Smarkets25·25.00Matchbook25·25.00Betfair Exchange22·22.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00
8	Wildfell J: William Carson · T: John & Rhys Flint · draw 13 · combo 3/21 (14%) 6yo · G · chtFirst after wind opOnly runner	9000	9-04	55	—	—	27.0	66/1·71.98	70·70.00 Matchbook · -3% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook70·70.00Bet36566/1·67.00 Midnite66/1·67.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 7Bet50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Paddy Power50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00Smarkets50·50.00SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00Betfair Exchange7·7.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 28 bookmakers per horse with the 41% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap Stakes?

The Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap Stakes is off at 19:15 on 5 October 2026 at Kempton (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 19:15 Kempton (AW)?

7f, Class 6, Flat, 13 runners declared.

What is the going for the 19:15 Kempton (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard To Slow on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 19:15 Kempton (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Pickering Castle (score 44.7, best price 7.40). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 19:15 Kempton (AW)?

The market favourite is Portman Blue at a best price of 5.50. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Pickering Castle.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org