14:05 Pontefract

Constant Security Serving Yorkshire Racecourses Nursery Handicap Stakes

6f · Flat · Class 5 · Good · 9 runners · £4,187 · Monday, 5 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (9 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Rex Regum

No. 6 · score 61.2 · +6.4 clear of next best · best 7/1·8.00

Best value vs consensus

Floral Maid

5.2·5.20 Betfair Exchange · +7% vs fair (consensus 4.88)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way61.2/100 rating

Rex Regum

8.007Bet

Place portion settles at 2.40 · 1/5 odds · 3 places

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Floral MaidDiffers from our pick

Floral Maid heads the field on our figures at 88, a full nine pounds clear of Turnstile on 79, and that is a sizeable edge in a Class 5 sprint over six furlongs on good ground at Pontefract. She looks the one to beat on merit, and the gap to the rest of the field should count if she runs to her best. Turnstile is the main danger, with Prosperity Angel (77) and Social Spirit (75) also close enough to take advantage if she is below par, though confidence is only low given how open the race looks beyond her. Floral Maid is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Rex Regum

Daniel Tudhope · Tom Clover · 2yo

Top-rated of 9

score 61.2 · +6.4 clear of next best (54.8)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
100small sample (n=9)
Tom Clover: 4/9 winners last 14d (44%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Freshness10% weight
100very strong
25d since last run (race-fit window)
Ratings50% weight
47below average
OR 70
Form20% weight
40below average
Last 6: 9-8-3-2-7

MarketBest price 8.00 (7Bet) · 5th in the market of 9.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
7State of Gold
Prominent(3)
1Turnstile 3Floral Maid 5Desert Smoke
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(4)
2Social Spirit 6Rex Regum 8Kigali 9Classyfied
Unknown(1)
4Prosperity Angel

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Pontefract 6f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.19).

Low (1–3)

IV 0.98

Mid (4–6)

IV 1.19

High (7–9)

IV 0.85

Today: Turnstile (draw 6) and Classyfied (draw 4) get the bias; Rex Regum (draw 9) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 147 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
6	Rex RegumPick J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Tom Clover · draw 9 2yo · C · chOnly runner	98327	9-05	70	—	—	61.2	8/1·9.14	7/1·8.00 7Bet · -12% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ 7Bet7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00Hollywood Bets7/1·8.00BetTom7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports7/1·8.00Smarkets7.6·7.60Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 Paddy Power13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 Bet36513/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50Matchbook7.4·7.40Betfair Exchange7.2·7.20 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00BetMGM6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 William Hill11/2·6.50
1	Turnstile J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby · draw 6 2yo · G · chClass dropD	333751	9-09	74	—	—	54.8	13/2·7.31	7·7.00 Betfair Exchange · -4% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange7·7.00Smarkets7·7.00Matchbook7·7.00Bet36511/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 BetMGM11/2·6.50 SmarketsSBK11/2·6.50 7Bet5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 William Hill5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00Hollywood Bets5/1·6.00Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00
4	Prosperity Angel J: Andrew Mullen · T: Ben Haslam · draw 3 2yo · F · bGoing 1/2	3133	9-05	70	—	—	53.9	11/2·6.70	6·6.00 Betfair Exchange · -10% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange6·6.00Matchbook6·6.00Smarkets6·6.00SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 Paddy Power9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Midnite9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00William Hill7/2·4.50
3	Floral Maid J: Cam Hardie · T: Brian Ellison · draw 1 2yo · F · chOnly pairing	22	9-06	71	—	—	51.3	4/1·4.88	5.2·5.20 Betfair Exchange · +7% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20Smarkets5.2·5.20Matchbook4.6·4.60SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 SportingIndex10/3·4.33 Spreadex10/3·4.33 Paddy Power10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 BetMGM16/5·4.20 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00Betfair Sportsbook3/1·4.007Bet3/1·4.00 BetTom3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00Hollywood Bets3/1·4.00Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 Bet3653/1·4.00 Coral3/1·4.00 Ladbrokes3/1·4.00 Midnite3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00 Unibet3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet11/4·3.75Virgin Bet11/4·3.75Betfred11/4·3.75 William Hill5/2·3.50
7	State of Gold J: William Pyle · T: Craig Lidster · draw 2 2yo · F · chOnly runner	857219	9-03	68	—	—	46.8	11/1·12.19	10/1·11.00 Midnite · -10% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Midnite10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00Betano10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 Betfair Exchange10.5·10.50 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 William Hill9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Coral9/1·10.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00 Bet36517/2·9.50 Paddy Power17/2·9.50Smarkets9.4·9.40Matchbook9.2·9.20SportingIndex8/1·9.00 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook8/1·9.00Spreadex8/1·9.00
2	Social Spirit J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 8 2yo · G · b	568032	9-07	72	—	—	44.3	5/1·6.09	5.6·5.60 Smarkets · -8% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Smarkets5.6·5.60Betfair Exchange5.6·5.60Matchbook5.4·5.40Paddy Power4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00Betfred4/1·5.00 7Bet4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00BetWright4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00Virgin Bet7/2·4.50William Hill7/2·4.50 Unibet7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 BetMGM7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50
9	Classyfied J: James Sullivan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 4 2yo · F · bOnly pairing	5440	8-09	60	—	—	44.1	40/1·41.44	80·80.00 Matchbook · +93% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook80·80.00Smarkets55·55.00SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 Betfair Exchange36·36.00 7Bet35/1·36.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 Star Sports33/1·34.00 BetTom33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 Paddy Power33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.00Unibet33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00Hollywood Bets33/1·34.00LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00
5	Desert Smoke J: Jason Hart · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 5 2yo · F · grbOnly runner	6546	9-05	70	—	—	42.2	12/1·13.41	13.5·13.50 Matchbook Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook13.5·13.50SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00Smarkets12·12.00Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50 Bet36510/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Dragon Bet10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00BetMGM10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 Paddy Power10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 William Hill9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00
8	Kigali J: Clifford Lee · T: Ollie Sangster · draw 7 2yo · G · bOnly runner	67992	9-02	67	—	—	41.8	18/1·18.28	23·23.00 Matchbook · +26% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook23·23.00Smarkets20·20.00Betfair Exchange19·19.00 SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 BetMGM16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Paddy Power14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.007Bet14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 28 bookmakers per horse with the 22% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Constant Security Serving Yorkshire Racecourses Nursery Handicap Stakes?

The Constant Security Serving Yorkshire Racecourses Nursery Handicap Stakes is off at 14:05 on 5 October 2026 at Pontefract (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:05 Pontefract?

6f, Class 5, Flat, 9 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:05 Pontefract?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:05 Pontefract?

The AI top-rated runner is Rex Regum (score 61.2, best price 8.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:05 Pontefract?

The market favourite is Floral Maid at a best price of 5.20. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Rex Regum.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org