15:15 Pontefract

Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap Stakes (Div I)

6f · Flat · Class 3 · Good · 13 runners · £7,851 · Monday, 5 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (13 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Papa Cocktail

No. 10 · score 61.4 · +1.9 clear of next best · best 18/1·18.50

Best value vs consensus

Go Vince Go

19.5·19.50 Matchbook · +12% vs fair (consensus 17.36)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way59.5/100 rating

The Good Biscuit

8.20Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: American GulfDiffers from our pick

American Gulf looks the one to side with in this competitive Pontefract sprint, sitting just a pound behind Commanche Falls on our figures but preferred for a progressive profile that suggests there is more to come. At 6f on good ground he has the sort of upward trajectory that can see him bridge that narrow gap. Commanche Falls is the narrowly higher-rated danger, while Territorial Knight and Veblen Good are only a couple of pounds behind our pick and must be respected in a field of 13. Even so, American Gulf's improvement makes him the call.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Papa Cocktail

Jason Hart · Michael Herrington · 7yo

Top-rated of 13

score 61.4 · +1.9 clear of next best (59.5)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
20d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
78strong
Michael Herrington: 4/13 winners last 14d (31%)
Ratings50% weight
54average
OR 81
Form20% weight
45below average
Last 6: 2-3-6-4-1-0

MarketBest price 18.50 (Betfair Exchange) · 10th in the market of 13.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
11It Just Takes Time 13Go Vince Go
Prominent(3)
2The Good Biscuit 4Musical Touch 12Almarada Prince
Mid-division(3)
8Territorial Knight 9Start Me Up 10Papa Cocktail
Hold-up / closers(3)
3Commanche Falls 5Veblen Good 6Andesite
Unknown(2)
1American Gulf 7Gold Queen Kindly

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Pontefract 6f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.19).

Low (1–5)

IV 0.98

Mid (6–9)

IV 1.19

High (10–13)

IV 0.85

Today: Territorial Knight (draw 8) and Gold Queen Kindly (draw 9) get the bias; The Good Biscuit (draw 11) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 147 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
10	Papa CocktailPick J: Jason Hart · T: Michael Herrington · draw 1 7yo · G · bDOnly runner	236410	9-03	81	—	—	61.4	16/1·17.36	18.5·18.50 Betfair Exchange · +7% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange18.5·18.50Matchbook18.5·18.50Smarkets18.5·18.50SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 7Bet12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Midnite12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Bet Victor12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00
2	The Good Biscuit J: Joanna Mason · T: Ruth Carr · draw 11 5yo · G · bC&DGoing 1/3Only pairing	116151	9-11	89	—	—	59.5	15/2·8.68	8.2·8.20 Matchbook · -5% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook8.2·8.20SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00Smarkets7.8·7.80Betfair Exchange7.6·7.60 BetMGM6/1·7.00 Betfred11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50William Hill11/2·6.50 Paddy Power11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Bet36511/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets5/1·6.00
6	Andesite J: Kevin Stott · T: Roger Fell · draw 4 4yo · G · btOnly pairing	205711	9-06	84	—	—	54.6	5/1·6.01	5.6·5.60 Betfair Exchange · -7% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange5.6·5.60Smarkets5.6·5.60Matchbook5.3·5.30Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00 7Bet7/2·4.50 Bet Victor7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 BetTom7/2·4.50 BetWright7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 BetMGM7/2·4.50 Star Sports7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50 Boyle Sports7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50 Dragon Bet7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 Midnite7/2·4.50 Quinn Bet7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Paddy Power7/2·4.50Virgin Bet10/3·4.33LiveScore Bet10/3·4.33 William Hill10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33
12	Almarada Prince J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Paul Midgley · draw 12 5yo · G · chOnly pairing	634224	9-01	79	—	—	52.7	12/1·13.35	12.5·12.50 Matchbook · -6% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook12.5·12.50Betfair Exchange12·12.00 SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00Smarkets11.5·11.50SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00 Unibet9/1·10.00 Paddy Power9/1·10.00 Coral9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 Bet3659/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50Virgin Bet17/2·9.50William Hill17/2·9.50
8	Territorial Knight J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 8 4yo · G · chClass dropOnly pairing	542590	9-04	82	—	—	51.6	16/1·17.36	15·15.00 Smarkets · -14% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Smarkets15·15.00SmarketsSBK14/1·15.00 Betfair Exchange15·15.00Matchbook15·15.007Bet12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Paddy Power12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00
4	Musical Touch J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 3 5yo · G · bpClass dropDGoing 1/2	171030	9-08	86	—	—	50.6	17/2·9.35	8·8.00 Matchbook · -14% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook8·8.00Smarkets7.6·7.60Coral13/2·7.50 SmarketsSBK13/2·7.50 Betfair Exchange7.4·7.40 Midnite6/1·7.00 7Bet6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00Hollywood Bets6/1·7.00LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50William Hill5/1·6.00
13	Go Vince Go J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 13 3yo · G · b	043938	8-11	76	—	—	47.6	16/1·17.36	19.5·19.50 Matchbook · +12% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook19.5·19.50Betfair Exchange19·19.00 SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00Smarkets19·19.00Bet36514/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Midnite12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Paddy Power12/1·13.00 7Bet12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00BetMGM10/1·11.00
9	Start Me Up J: George Wood · T: Richard Spencer · draw 2 3yo · G · btpDGoing 1/2Only runner	114602	9-04	83	—	—	47.0	15/2·8.68	7.4·7.40 Matchbook · -15% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook7.4·7.40Smarkets7.2·7.20Betfair Exchange7.2·7.20 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Paddy Power11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50 Coral5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 BetMGM5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00Hollywood Bets5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00William Hill5/1·6.00
5	Veblen Good J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 10 4yo · G · bClass dropOnly runner	344070	9-07	85	—	—	46.3	14/1·14.69	11/1·12.00 Hollywood Bets · -18% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Hollywood Bets11/1·12.00Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 BetMGM10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 Paddy Power10/1·11.00Matchbook10.5·10.50Smarkets10.5·10.50SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00BetTom9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Betfair Exchange9.8·9.80
7	Gold Queen Kindly J: Shane Gray · T: Roger Fell · draw 9 3yo · G · chOnly pairing	902347	9-04	83	—	—	46.2	16/1·17.36	18·18.00 Betfair Exchange · +4% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange18·18.00Matchbook17.5·17.50Smarkets17·17.00SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.007Bet14/1·15.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00
1	American Gulf J: Rowan Scott · T: Oliver Cole · draw 5 3yo · G · bOnly runner	10922	9-13	92	—	—	44.1	20/1·20.03	21·21.00 Matchbook · +5% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook21·21.00Smarkets19.5·19.50SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Betfair Exchange16·16.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00Paddy Power14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00
11	It Just Takes Time J: Jack Garritty · T: Mark Walford · draw 6 8yo · G · brClass drop	231980	9-03	81	—	—	42.5	33/1·34.72	38·38.00 Matchbook · +10% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook38·38.00Smarkets30·30.00Bet36528/1·29.00 7Bet25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Midnite25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Betfair Exchange21·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00
3	Commanche Falls J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 7 9yo · G · brbClass drop	070380	9-09	87	—	—	42.0	22/1·22.70	18·18.00 Matchbook · -21% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook18·18.00Midnite16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Paddy Power16/1·17.00 7Bet16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 BetMGM16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00Betfair Exchange16.5·16.50 SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00Smarkets16·16.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 28 bookmakers per horse with the 34% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap Stakes (Div I)?

The Leslie Burton (Fisher) Handicap Stakes (Div I) is off at 15:15 on 5 October 2026 at Pontefract (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 15:15 Pontefract?

6f, Class 3, Flat, 13 runners declared.

What is the going for the 15:15 Pontefract?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 15:15 Pontefract?

The AI top-rated runner is Papa Cocktail (score 61.4, best price 18.50). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 15:15 Pontefract?

The market favourite is Andesite at a best price of 5.60. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Papa Cocktail.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org