19:00 Wolverhampton (AW)

attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes (Div I)

1m1½f · Flat · Class 5 · Standard · 11 runners · £3,978 · Monday, 5 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (11 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Cotswold Cottage

No. 10 · score 59.5 · +9.1 clear of next best · best 25/1·27.00

Best value vs consensus

Little Miss India

18/1·19.00 SmarketsSBK · +18% vs fair (consensus 16.12)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way50.4/100 rating

Moonjid

12.50Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: CanvasDiffers from our pick

Canvas heads the field on our figures with a rating of 87, a clear six pounds better than My Girl Grace and Faeberon, who share 81, and that gap should tell over ten furlongs on the Wolverhampton all-weather. My Girl Grace and Faeberon are the obvious dangers, with Criminal a little further back on 79, but none of them can match the top-rated runner on our numbers. In a competitive-looking Class 5 field of eleven, Canvas looks the one to beat and the confident choice. Canvas is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Cotswold Cottage

William Cox · Faye Bramley · 6yo

Top-rated of 11

score 59.5 · +9.1 clear of next best (50.4)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
95small sample (n=8)
Faye Bramley: 3/8 winners last 14d (38%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Freshness10% weight
85very strong
54d since last run (fresh)
Form20% weight
48below average
Last 6: 1-4-6-1-7
Ratings50% weight
45below average
OR 67

MarketBest price 27.00 (Matchbook) · 11th in the market of 11.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
1Canvas 2Cosmos Raj
Prominent(4)
3Moonjid 8Magician of Riga 9Faeberon 11The Dark Baron
Mid-division(1)
4My Girl Grace
Hold-up / closers(1)
5Glen Nevis
Unknown(3)
6Criminal 7Little Miss India 10Cotswold Cottage

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Wolverhampton (AW) 1m1½f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 0.96

Mid (5–8)

IV 1.12

High (9–11)

IV 0.94

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 771 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
10	Cotswold CottagePick J: William Cox · T: Faye Bramley · draw 2 6yo · M · bOnly rideOnly runner	14617	9-05	67	—	—	59.5	28/1·28.20	27·27.00 Matchbook · -4% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook27·27.00Bet36522/1·23.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 Coral20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes20/1·21.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00Hollywood Bets20/1·21.00Spreadex20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange19.5·19.50 7Bet18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00BetWright18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00Smarkets16.5·16.50
3	Moonjid J: David Probert · T: Michael Appleby · draw 3 4yo · G · bOn last winning markDOnly runner	317548	9-09	71	—	—	50.4	14/1·14.77	12.5·12.50 Matchbook · -15% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook12.5·12.50Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50Smarkets11·11.00Betfred10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00Betfair Sportsbook10/1·11.00Paddy Power10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 SmarketsSBK10/1·11.00 Betano9/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00BetWright9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00Bet Victor9/1·10.00
2	Cosmos Raj J: Mark Winn · T: David O'Meara · draw 6 8yo · G · bDOnly ride	441418	9-11	73	—	—	50.0	20/1·20.14	16/1·17.00 BetTom · -16% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ BetTom16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00Smarkets15.5·15.507Bet14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00BetWright14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00Matchbook15·15.00Bet36514/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 SmarketsSBK14/1·15.00 Betfair Exchange14·14.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00
9	Faeberon J: Callum Shepherd · T: Simon & Ed Crisford · draw 1 3yo · G · bvFT VC&DGoing 1/2Only runner	83134	9-06	72	—	—	49.4	9/2·5.37	7/2·4.50 Bet365 · -16% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Bet3657/2·4.50Hollywood Bets10/3·4.33Betfair Sportsbook10/3·4.33Paddy Power10/3·4.33 William Hill10/3·4.33Smarkets4.2·4.20Matchbook4.2·4.20SmarketsSBK16/5·4.20 Betfair Exchange4.1·4.10 Ladbrokes3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00 Midnite3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 Coral3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 7Bet3/1·4.00 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 BetTom3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00 Betfred3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 BetMGM3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00 Unibet3/1·4.00
8	Magician of Riga J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon · draw 11 3yo · G · bOnly runner	531135	9-07	73	—	—	48.0	15/2·8.73	7.6·7.60 Matchbook · -13% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook7.6·7.60Smarkets7.4·7.40Betfair Exchange7.2·7.20 Spreadex6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Star Sports11/2·6.50 William Hill11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Bet36511/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 Unibet5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00 SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00 BetMGM5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00
6	Criminal J: Gina Mangan · T: Fergal O'Brien · draw 9 4yo · G · bOnly runner	082472	9-07	69	—	—	47.8	14/1·14.77	14.5·14.50 Smarkets · -2% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Smarkets14.5·14.50SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00Matchbook14·14.00Betfair Exchange13.5·13.50 Bet36511/1·12.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00William Hill10/1·11.00 Paddy Power10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00 Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 BetMGM9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00
7	Little Miss India J: Mason Paetel(3) · T: James Owen · draw 10 5yo · M · bpOnly rideOnly runner	418504	9-07	69	—	—	45.3	16/1·16.12	18/1·19.00 SmarketsSBK · +18% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00Matchbook19·19.00Betfair Exchange17.5·17.50Smarkets17.5·17.50SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 Bet36511/1·12.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 Betfred11/1·12.00 Coral11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 Ladbrokes11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00 Quinn Bet11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00 Unibet11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00William Hill11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Hollywood Bets11/1·12.00BetMGM10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00
5	Glen Nevis J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 4 3yo · G · bvFT VClass drop	394290	9-08	74	—	—	44.9	16/1·17.46	18.5·18.50 Matchbook · +6% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook18.5·18.50Smarkets18.5·18.50Betfair Exchange16·16.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00BetMGM12/1·13.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 Bet Victor11/1·12.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00
1	Canvas J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Scott Dixon · draw 8 4yo · G · bpClass dropOnly runner	409622	9-13	75	—	—	44.5	17/2·9.40	13/2·7.50 Bet365 · -20% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Bet36513/2·7.50Matchbook7.4·7.40Smarkets7.2·7.20SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00Hollywood Bets6/1·7.00Coral6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 Midnite6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Betfair Exchange6.8·6.80 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50 7Bet11/2·6.50 BetMGM11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50
11	The Dark Baron J: Ben Ffrench Davis(5) · T: Kathy Turner · draw 7 4yo · G · bC&DGoing 1/3Only runner	364441	9-04	66	—	—	43.8	5/1·6.04	8.2·8.20 Matchbook · +36% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook8.2·8.20Betfair Exchange7.6·7.60 SmarketsSBK13/2·7.50Smarkets6.4·6.40Bet3654/1·5.00 Coral7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50Hollywood Bets7/2·4.50BetTom7/2·4.50 Midnite7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50 Star Sports7/2·4.50 William Hill7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Paddy Power7/2·4.50 7Bet10/3·4.33 Boyle Sports10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33Virgin Bet10/3·4.33Quinn Bet10/3·4.33 BetWright10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33 LiveScore Bet10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33 BetMGM10/3·4.33
4	My Girl Grace J: Billy Loughnane · T: Mark Loughnane · draw 5 3yo · F · bDOnly runner	1770	9-08	74	—	—	36.7	10/1·11.41	11·11.00 Matchbook · -4% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook11·11.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 Betfair Exchange9.6·9.60Smarkets9.6·9.60Paddy Power8/1·9.00 SportingIndex8/1·9.00 Spreadex8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50Hollywood Bets15/2·8.507Bet15/2·8.50 BetTom15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50 Midnite15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 Star Sports15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.50Bet36515/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Betfred15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50 BetMGM7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 28 bookmakers per horse with the 34% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes (Div I)?

The attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes (Div I) is off at 19:00 on 5 October 2026 at Wolverhampton (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 19:00 Wolverhampton (AW)?

1m1½f, Class 5, Flat, 11 runners declared.

What is the going for the 19:00 Wolverhampton (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 19:00 Wolverhampton (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Cotswold Cottage (score 59.5, best price 27.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 19:00 Wolverhampton (AW)?

The market favourite is Faeberon at a best price of 4.50. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Cotswold Cottage.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org