20:00 Wolverhampton (AW)

Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap Stakes

1m4f · Flat · Class 6 · Standard · 11 runners · £3,245 · Monday, 5 October 2026

Compare all prices

E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (11 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Caraway

No. 5 · score 51.5 · +6.5 clear of next best · best 13/2·7.60

Best value vs consensus

Electrical

24·24.00 Matchbook · +17% vs fair (consensus 20.59)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way51.5/100 rating

Caraway

7.60Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: TakeitorleaveitDiffers from our pick

Takeitorleaveit is our selection for this 12-furlong Wolverhampton contest, and he looks the one to side with on his progressive profile and a fitness edge over the top-rated. He sits on a figure of 70, just two pounds behind the top-rated Electrical, a gap his progressive profile and fitness edge give him the scope to close. Electrical is the main danger as the narrowly higher-rated runner, while Caraway, on the same figure as our pick, and Mmmbop, a couple of pounds further back, also have to be respected in a competitive Class 6 field of eleven. Takeitorleaveit has the profile to go one better than those rivals, and he is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Caraway

Darragh Keenan · William Haggas · 3yo

Top-rated of 11

score 51.5 · +6.5 clear of next best (45.1)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
19d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
61average
Last 6: 6-1-3-2-2-5
Trainer20% weight
45below average
William Haggas: 9/51 winners last 14d (18%)
Ratings50% weight
41below average
OR 61

MarketBest price 7.60 (Matchbook) · 5th in the market of 11.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
1Takeitorleaveit
Prominent(4)
2Mmmbop 3Sun Lord 9Tinsel 11Alkaios
Mid-division(1)
10La Kosmos
Hold-up / closers(5)
4Electrical 5Caraway 6Goldfinder 7Eze Sur Mer 8Electric Gambler

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Wolverhampton (AW) 1m4f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 0.96

Mid (5–8)

IV 1.12

High (9–11)

IV 0.94

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 771 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
5	CarawayPick J: Darragh Keenan · T: William Haggas · draw 6 · combo 2/17 (12%) 3yo · F · bClass dropOnly runner	613225	9-05	61	—	—	51.5	7/1·8.24	7.6·7.60 Matchbook · -8% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook7.6·7.60Betfair Exchange7.4·7.40Smarkets7.4·7.40SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Bet36511/2·6.50 7Bet5/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 William Hill5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00Hollywood Bets5/1·6.00Bet Victor9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50
1	Takeitorleaveit J: Rob Hornby · T: Jonathan Portman · draw 3 · combo 7/81 (9%) 3yo · G · bpClass dropOnly runner	212822	9-09	65	—	—	45.1	8/1·8.92	6/1·7.00 SmarketsSBK · -21% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00Smarkets7·7.00Bet3656/1·7.00Matchbook7·7.00Betfair Exchange6.8·6.80 7Bet11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50 William Hill11/2·6.50 Paddy Power11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50Bet Victor5/1·6.00 BetMGM5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00
9	Tinsel J: Hector Crouch · T: Hughie Morrison · draw 10 · combo 0/5 (0%) 3yo · G · chpOnly pairing	14949	9-02	58	—	—	43.9	11/1·11.67	16.5·16.50 Matchbook · +41% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook16.5·16.50SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00Smarkets14·14.00Betfair Exchange13·13.00 Bet36517/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 7Bet8/1·9.00 William Hill8/1·9.00 Paddy Power8/1·9.00 SportingIndex8/1·9.00 Spreadex8/1·9.00 Betano15/2·8.50 LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.50Hollywood Bets15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 Midnite15/2·8.50 Star Sports15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 BetTom15/2·8.50 Unibet13/2·7.50
10	La Kosmos J: Sean Levey · T: Alan King · draw 8 3yo · F · bOnly runner	47883	9-00	56	—	—	42.1	12/1·13.04	11·11.00 Matchbook · -16% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook11·11.00Betfair Exchange10.5·10.50Smarkets10·10.00Bet3659/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 William Hill9/1·10.00 Paddy Power9/1·10.00 SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 7Bet17/2·9.50Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.50Quinn Bet17/2·9.50 Dragon Bet17/2·9.50 Ladbrokes17/2·9.50Hollywood Bets17/2·9.50Unibet17/2·9.50 Star Sports17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 BetTom17/2·9.50 Midnite17/2·9.50 BetWright17/2·9.50 Coral17/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00 LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00Bet Victor8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 Betano8/1·9.00
7	Eze Sur Mer J: Gina Mangan · T: Dr Richard Newland · draw 1 3yo · F · chpFT P	40660	9-03	59	—	—	41.1	40/1·39.81	55·55.00 Matchbook · +38% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook55·55.00Bet36533/1·34.00 7Bet30/1·31.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 BetWright28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 Midnite28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00Betfair Sportsbook28/1·29.00Paddy Power28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00Hollywood Bets28/1·29.00Smarkets28·28.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 Betfair Exchange26·26.00
2	Mmmbop J: Billy Loughnane · T: Daniel & Claire Kubler · draw 4 · combo 2/9 (22%) 3yo · F · bClass dropOnly pairing	53844	9-08	64	—	—	39.1	6/1·6.86	6.4·6.40 Matchbook · -7% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook6.4·6.40Betfair Exchange6.2·6.20 SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00Smarkets6·6.00Spreadex9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Paddy Power9/2·5.50 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 BetMGM4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00
6	Goldfinder J: David Probert · T: Patrick Chamings · draw 2 · combo 0/15 (0%) 3yo · G · bpOnly runner	442502	9-04	60	—	—	39.1	13/2·7.55	6·6.00 Smarkets · -20% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Smarkets6·6.00Bet3655/1·6.00 BetWright5/1·6.00 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 William Hill5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00Paddy Power5/1·6.00 SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00Matchbook5.9·5.90Betfair Exchange5.8·5.80 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50Midnite9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50
8	Electric Gambler J: Pat Cosgrave · T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill · draw 11 3yo · G · chtClass dropOnly rideOnly runner	750	9-02	58	—	—	38.8	14/1·15.10	12/1·13.00 Betfair Sportsbook · -14% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Paddy Power12/1·13.00Matchbook13·13.00Smarkets12·12.00BetMGM11/1·12.00 Bet36511/1·12.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00 SportingIndex11/1·12.00 Spreadex11/1·12.00 Betfair Exchange12·12.00 7Bet10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.00Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Midnite10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00Star Sports10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 William Hill9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00
3	Sun Lord J: Barry McHugh · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 7 · combo 2/35 (6%) 3yo · G · bClass drop	3878	9-08	64	—	—	36.1	5/1·5.94	6·6.00 Matchbook Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook6·6.00Smarkets5.6·5.60Betfair Exchange5.5·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50 BetWright7/2·4.50 Dragon Bet7/2·4.50 Paddy Power7/2·4.50 BetMGM10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 7Bet10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 Quinn Bet10/3·4.33Betfair Sportsbook10/3·4.33Boyle Sports10/3·4.33Hollywood Bets10/3·4.33Coral10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 Midnite10/3·4.33 Star Sports10/3·4.33 BetTom3/1·4.00 Unibet3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00William Hill3/1·4.00 Betfred3/1·4.00
4	Electrical J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Brian Toomey · draw 9 3yo · G · chClass dropOnly runner	76756	9-06	62	—	—	33.4	20/1·20.59	24·24.00 Matchbook · +17% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook24·24.00Smarkets23·23.00SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange18.5·18.50 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00William Hill12/1·13.00
11	Alkaios J: Jack Doughty · T: Steph Hollinshead · draw 5 3yo · G · bhOnly pairing	59905	8-13	55	—	—	31.1	50/1·56.28	50/1·51.00 Betfair Sportsbook · -9% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00Paddy Power50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00Smarkets50·50.00SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00Matchbook44·44.00Bet36540/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00Star Sports40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00William Hill40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Betfair Exchange18·18.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27–28 bookmakers per horse with the 37% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap Stakes?

The Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap Stakes is off at 20:00 on 5 October 2026 at Wolverhampton (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 20:00 Wolverhampton (AW)?

1m4f, Class 6, Flat, 11 runners declared.

What is the going for the 20:00 Wolverhampton (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 20:00 Wolverhampton (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Caraway (score 51.5, best price 7.60). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 20:00 Wolverhampton (AW)?

The market favourite is Sun Lord at a best price of 6.00. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Caraway.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org