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Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap Stakes

7f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 12 runners · £5,234 · Monday, 5 October 2026

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Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated
No. 6 · score 59.6 · +3.6 clear of next best · best 15/2·8.60
Best value vs consensus
36·36.00 Matchbook · +24% vs fair (consensus 29.12)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Each-way59.6/100 rating
Grow Old With Me
8.60Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Dublin BayDiffers from our pick

Dublin Bay is our selection, and the case rests on a progressive profile that makes him more appealing than his rating alone suggests. He sits on 86, four pounds behind the top-rated Reciprocated on 90, but a horse on the upgrade can close that gap in a competitive Class 4 seven-furlong event on the Wolverhampton all-weather. Reciprocated is the obvious danger given his rating edge, while Proud Nation and The Dragon King, both on the same 86 as our pick, must be respected in a tight, open-looking contest. This is a low-confidence call, but Dublin Bay's upward trajectory gives him the narrowest of preferences.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Grow Old With Me

Hector Crouch · Ralph Beckett · 4yo

Top-rated of 12
score 59.6 · +3.6 clear of next best (56.0)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    16d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Form20% weight
    63average
    Last 6: 2-3-3
  • Trainer20% weight
    55average
    Ralph Beckett: 11/50 winners last 14d (22%)
  • Ratings50% weight
    52average
    OR 78
MarketBest price 8.60 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 12.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: 4 confirmed front-runners — expect a pace duel; closers from the rear advantaged.

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Wolverhampton (AW) 7f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)
IV 1.05
Mid (5–8)
IV 1.09
High (9–12)
IV 0.86

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 403 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair
No.HorseFormORAIFairBestAdd to betslip
6
J: Hector Crouch · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 7
4yo · G · bbFT B
233
7859.69/1·10.408.6·8.60
Matchbook · -17% vs fair
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10
J: Billy Loughnane · T: George Boughey · draw 1
3yo · G · chC&DGoing 2/2
235611
7856.07/2·4.513.5·3.50
Matchbook · -22% vs fair
Compare 28 books ▾
2
J: Darragh Keenan · T: Ollie Sangster · draw 12
3yo · G · bpC&DGoing 1/2Only pairing
415134
8553.86/1·6.9311.5·11.50
Matchbook · +66% vs fair
Compare 28 books ▾
1
J: Jonny Peate · T: Ivan Furtado · draw 6
5yo · G · bDOnly pairing
211164
8453.312/1·13.1712.5·12.50
Matchbook · -5% vs fair
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8
3yo · F · bOnly rideOnly runner
122352
7952.717/2·9.719·9.00
Matchbook · -7% vs fair
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11
J: Rob Hornby · T: Hughie Morrison · draw 3
4yo · G · btOnly pairing
04938
7649.612/1·13.8711/1·12.00
Bet365 · -13% vs fair
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9
4yo · G · grpD
722814
7749.220/1·20.8019·19.00
Matchbook · -9% vs fair
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3
3yo · C · brvFT VOnly pairing
35200
8546.612/1·13.8711/1·12.00
Bet365 · -13% vs fair
Compare 28 books ▾
5
J: Sean Levey · T: David O'Meara · draw 4
3yo · G · chhDOnly pairing
19
8245.822/1·23.5724·24.00
Matchbook · +2% vs fair
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12
J: David Probert · T: J. S. Moore · draw 10
4yo · F · bbClass dropOnly pairing
47385
7444.628/1·29.1236·36.00
Matchbook · +24% vs fair
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4
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Robert Cowell · draw 5
4yo · G · bOnly runner
555828
8139.912/1·13.8714·14.00
Smarkets
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7
J: Jack Doughty · T: David Loughnane · draw 9
3yo · G · grt/ceFT T/CE
30000
8036.050/1·56.8548·48.00
Matchbook · -16% vs fair
Compare 28 books ▾

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 28 bookmakers per horse with the 39% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap Stakes?

The Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap Stakes is off at 20:30 on 5 October 2026 at Wolverhampton (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 20:30 Wolverhampton (AW)?

7f, Class 4, Flat, 12 runners declared.

What is the going for the 20:30 Wolverhampton (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 20:30 Wolverhampton (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Grow Old With Me (score 59.6, best price 8.60). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 20:30 Wolverhampton (AW)?

The market favourite is Powder Monkey at a best price of 3.50. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Grow Old With Me.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org