15:00 Yarmouth

Origin Amenity Solutions Nursery Handicap Stakes

7f · Flat · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 9 runners · £3,768 · Monday, 5 October 2026

Compare all prices

E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (9 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Crystal Kraken

No. 3 · score 44.8 · +3.3 clear of next best · best 22/1·23.00

Best value vs consensus

Nightspell

60·60.00 Matchbook · +20% vs fair (consensus 50.05)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way41.5/100 rating

Santo

7.80Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Crystal KrakenAgrees with our pick

Crystal Kraken shares the top rating in this Yarmouth seven-furlong contest with Santo on 76, and we prefer her on her progressive profile, which should count for plenty on the good to firm ground in a modest Class 6 field. Santo is the obvious danger as she is level on rating, while Ventura Power is only two pounds behind and cannot be dismissed. Marralyn, a further six pounds back on 68, completes the principal threats, but the gap to the rest of the field is a sizeable one. Crystal Kraken's upward trajectory gives her the edge, and she is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Crystal Kraken

Luke Morris · Dylan Cunha · 2yo

Top-rated of 9

score 44.8 · +3.3 clear of next best (41.5)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
14d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
43below average
Dylan Cunha: 4/24 winners last 14d (17%)
Ratings50% weight
40below average
OR 60
Form20% weight
31weak
Last 6: 5-2-2-3-0-0

MarketBest price 23.00 (Midnite) · 8th in the market of 9.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: No confirmed front-runner — likely a slow start, race may turn into a sprint.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(1)
6Marralyn
Mid-division(3)
1Santo 7Roberts Legacy 8Nightspell
Hold-up / closers(4)
2Ventura Power 3Crystal Kraken 5Chaise Longue 9Ava Louise
Unknown(1)
4Ground Force

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Yarmouth 7f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–3)

IV 1.08

Mid (4–6)

IV 1.02

High (7–9)

IV 0.89

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 189 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
3	Crystal KrakenPick J: Luke Morris · T: Dylan Cunha · draw 5 2yo · F · bClass dropOnly pairing	522300	9-07	60	—	—	44.8	25/1·25.64	22/1·23.00 Midnite · -10% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Midnite22/1·23.00Hollywood Bets22/1·23.00Star Sports22/1·23.00 Quinn Bet22/1·23.00 Paddy Power22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Ladbrokes22/1·23.00 Unibet22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00Matchbook22·22.007Bet20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet20/1·21.00Virgin Bet20/1·21.00BetTom20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 William Hill20/1·21.00Smarkets21·21.00Betfair Exchange20·20.00 Betano18/1·19.00 BetMGM18/1·19.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00
1	Santo J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Eve Johnson Houghton · draw 9 2yo · F · bClass dropOnly ride	6385	9-09	62	—	—	41.5	15/2·8.55	7.8·7.80 Matchbook · -9% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook7.8·7.80Smarkets7.6·7.60SmarketsSBK13/2·7.50 Betfair Exchange7.4·7.40 Midnite6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 7Bet11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50William Hill11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Betfred11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50Bet36511/2·6.50 BetMGM5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00
5	Chaise Longue J: Robert Havlin · T: Ed Dunlop · draw 6 2yo · F · bOnly runner	8572	9-06	59	—	—	41.2	4/1·5.08	4.7·4.70 Smarkets · -8% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Smarkets4.7·4.70Betfair Exchange4.6·4.60Matchbook4.5·4.50SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Boyle Sports10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 SportingIndex10/3·4.33 Spreadex10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 Midnite10/3·4.33 Quinn Bet10/3·4.33 BetTom10/3·4.33 Paddy Power10/3·4.33Betfair Sportsbook10/3·4.337Bet3/1·4.00 Bet3653/1·4.00Hollywood Bets3/1·4.00William Hill3/1·4.00 Unibet3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00 Betfred3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00 Betano11/4·3.75 Bet Victor11/4·3.75 BetMGM11/4·3.75
2	Ventura Power J: Megan Smith(7) · T: George Boughey · draw 8 2yo · G · bClass dropOnly rideOnly runner	6496	9-09	62	—	—	39.3	18/1·18.31	18·18.00 Matchbook · -2% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook18·18.00Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Betfair Exchange16.5·16.50Smarkets15.5·15.50Midnite14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Bet36514/1·15.00 Paddy Power14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Betfred14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 SmarketsSBK14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Betano12/1·13.00 BetMGM12/1·13.00
6	Marralyn J: Dylan Hogan · T: Ollie Sangster · draw 1 2yo · F · bOnly rideOnly runner	58377	9-04	57	—	—	36.9	12/1·13.43	13·13.00 Matchbook · -3% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook13·13.00Betfair Exchange12.5·12.50 Star Sports10/1·11.00Smarkets11·11.00Bet36510/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 SmarketsSBK10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00Hollywood Bets10/1·11.00Paddy Power10/1·11.00Betfair Sportsbook10/1·11.00Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 Betfred17/2·9.50 William Hill17/2·9.50 BetTom17/2·9.50 Unibet17/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00
4	Ground Force J: Rossa Ryan · T: James Owen · draw 4 2yo · G · bClass dropOnly pairing	097	9-07	60	—	—	36.4	15/8·2.91	2.82·2.82 Smarkets · -3% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Smarkets2.82·2.82Betfair Exchange2.8·2.80 SmarketsSBK7/4·2.75Matchbook2.74·2.74Star Sports6/4·2.50 SportingIndex6/4·2.50 Spreadex6/4·2.50 Paddy Power6/4·2.50 Coral6/4·2.50Hollywood Bets6/4·2.50Bet3656/4·2.50 Ladbrokes6/4·2.50 Quinn Bet11/8·2.38 William Hill11/8·2.38 Boyle Sports11/8·2.38 Betano11/8·2.38 Dragon Bet11/8·2.38Virgin Bet11/8·2.38Betfair Sportsbook11/8·2.38Unibet11/8·2.38 Midnite11/8·2.38 BetWright11/8·2.38 BetTom11/8·2.38 LiveScore Bet11/8·2.38 Bet Victor11/8·2.38 7Bet11/8·2.38 Betfred11/8·2.38 BetMGM5/4·2.25
7	Roberts Legacy J: Harry Davies · T: Lemos De Souza · draw 3 2yo · F · bpFT POnly runner	064	9-04	57	—	—	33.3	10/1·10.99	9.8·9.80 Smarkets · -11% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Smarkets9.8·9.80Matchbook9.6·9.60Coral17/2·9.50 Ladbrokes17/2·9.50 Betfred8/1·9.00 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Star Sports8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00Hollywood Bets8/1·9.00SportingIndex8/1·9.00 Spreadex8/1·9.00 Paddy Power8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00 Bet3658/1·9.00 Betfair Exchange8.8·8.80Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50William Hill15/2·8.50 BetWright15/2·8.50 LiveScore Bet15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50Virgin Bet15/2·8.507Bet15/2·8.50 BetMGM15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 Betano7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00
8	Nightspell J: Alexandra Egan(5) · T: Ross Burdon · draw 7 2yo · F · bhClass dropOnly rideOnly runner	479	8-12	51	—	—	28.6	50/1·50.05	60·60.00 Matchbook · +20% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook60·60.00Bet36550/1·51.00Smarkets44·44.00Coral40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 Paddy Power40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 SmarketsSBK40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00Ladbrokes40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Betano33/1·34.00 BetMGM33/1·34.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.00LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00 Betfair Exchange30·30.00
9	Ava Louise J: Saffie Osborne · T: Philip McBride · draw 2 2yo · F · bClass drop	589	8-07	46	—	—	24.1	14/1·15.87	15·15.00 Matchbook · -5% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook15·15.00Smarkets14.5·14.50Betfair Exchange14.5·14.50 SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Bet36511/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00Hollywood Bets11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00BetWright11/1·12.00 Betfred11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00 William Hill11/1·12.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 BetMGM10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 28 bookmakers per horse with the 22% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Origin Amenity Solutions Nursery Handicap Stakes?

The Origin Amenity Solutions Nursery Handicap Stakes is off at 15:00 on 5 October 2026 at Yarmouth (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 15:00 Yarmouth?

7f, Class 6, Flat, 9 runners declared.

What is the going for the 15:00 Yarmouth?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 15:00 Yarmouth?

The AI top-rated runner is Crystal Kraken (score 44.8, best price 23.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 15:00 Yarmouth?

The market favourite is Ground Force at a best price of 2.82. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Crystal Kraken.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org