16:40 Yarmouth

Moulton Racing Club Handicap Stakes

1m · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 12 runners · £5,653 · Monday, 5 October 2026

Compare all prices

E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (12 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Rogue Allegiance

No. 2 · score 55.5 · +0.6 clear of next best · best 10/1·11.50

Best value vs consensus

Trinculo

60·60.00 Matchbook · +14% vs fair (consensus 52.80)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 28 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way55.5/100 rating

Rogue Allegiance

11.50Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Island BearDiffers from our pick

Island Bear heads our ratings on 84, narrowly ahead of Media Legend on 83, and that is enough to make him the pick in a tightly packed Yarmouth eight-furlong contest on good to firm ground. The margin is slim, so he has little room for error, and the danger list is a long one: Media Legend is only a pound behind, while You Sexy Thing and Gorgeous Mr George sit on 80 and could easily close the gap. With a cluster of runners on 79 or 80 behind them, this looks open, but Island Bear's rating gives him the best credentials on what we have. Island Bear is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Rogue Allegiance

Harry Davies · James Owen · 4yo

Top-rated of 12

score 55.5 · +0.6 clear of next best (54.9)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
16d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
64average
Last 6: 3-2-2-1-1-0
Ratings50% weight
53average
OR 80
Trainer20% weight
30weak
James Owen: 5/41 winners last 14d (12%)

MarketBest price 11.50 (Matchbook) · 7th in the market of 12.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
12Trinculo
Prominent(3)
2Rogue Allegiance 6Island Bear 11Guest House
Mid-division(1)
5Media Legend
Hold-up / closers(2)
7Venetian Sky 9Ecclefechan
Unknown(5)
1Drifts Away 3Gorgeous Mr George 4Colonnade 8Galileo Island 10You Sexy Thing

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Yarmouth 1m

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 1.08

Mid (5–8)

IV 1.02

High (9–12)

IV 0.89

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 189 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	Rogue AllegiancePick J: Harry Davies · T: James Owen · draw 10 4yo · G · bCDGoing 1/2	322110	10-00	80	—	—	55.5	12/1·12.88	11.5·11.50 Matchbook · -11% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook11.5·11.50Betfair Exchange11·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00Smarkets10.5·10.50SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 Betfred9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00 Unibet9/1·10.00 Coral9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Paddy Power9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00Ladbrokes9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet17/2·9.50 LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50Virgin Bet17/2·9.507Bet17/2·9.50 William Hill17/2·9.50 BetWright17/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 Betano15/2·8.50
6	Island Bear J: Rossa Ryan · T: Dr Richard Newland · draw 8 3yo · G · bbDOnly runner	546451	9-07	76	—	—	54.9	6/1·7.08	6.8·6.80 Smarkets · -4% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Smarkets6.8·6.80Betfair Exchange6.6·6.60 SmarketsSBK11/2·6.50 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00Matchbook6·6.00Coral5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Betfred9/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Midnite9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Paddy Power9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00BetMGM4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00
4	Colonnade J: Robert Havlin · T: Simon & Ed Crisford · draw 4 3yo · C · chtClass dropOnly runner	3532	9-10	79	—	—	53.6	9/1·10.30	9.6·9.60 Matchbook · -7% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook9.6·9.60Betfair Exchange9.2·9.20Smarkets9·9.00SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Coral15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 Midnite7/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Paddy Power7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 BetTom7/1·8.00 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.507Bet13/2·7.50 Bet36513/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50Hollywood Bets13/2·7.50William Hill13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00
3	Gorgeous Mr George J: Taryn Langley(5) · T: Dylan Cunha · draw 1 4yo · G · chC&DGoing 2/4Only pairing	811408	10-00	80	—	—	52.3	9/1·10.30	9·9.00 Betfair Exchange · -13% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange9·9.00Matchbook9·9.00Coral15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes15/2·8.50Betfair Sportsbook15/2·8.50Paddy Power15/2·8.50 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50Smarkets8.4·8.40Spreadex7/1·8.00 BetTom7/1·8.00 Betano7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00Hollywood Bets7/1·8.00Bet3657/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 BetWright7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Bet Victor7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Betfred13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50 7Bet13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.50BetMGM6/1·7.00 William Hill11/2·6.50
7	Venetian Sky J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas · draw 6 3yo · F · ch	344528	9-06	75	—	—	52.1	16/1·16.74	25·25.00 Matchbook · +49% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook25·25.00Smarkets22·22.00Betfair Exchange21·21.00 SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00 Paddy Power12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Bet36512/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 BetWright11/1·12.00 Dragon Bet11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Boyle Sports11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00 Quinn Bet11/1·12.00 William Hill11/1·12.00 7Bet11/1·12.00 BetMGM10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00
5	Media Legend J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Harry Charlton · draw 5 3yo · G · bpOnly rideOnly runner	35342	9-07	76	—	—	48.9	9/2·5.58	5.5·5.50 Betfair Exchange Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange5.5·5.50Matchbook5.5·5.50Smarkets5.4·5.40SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00 Coral7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50 Midnite10/3·4.33 Star Sports10/3·4.33 7Bet10/3·4.33Hollywood Bets10/3·4.33Betfair Sportsbook10/3·4.33Paddy Power10/3·4.33 Bet36510/3·4.33 Betfred10/3·4.33Virgin Bet3/1·4.00William Hill3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00 BetTom3/1·4.00 BetMGM3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 Unibet3/1·4.00
11	Guest House J: Jack Callan · T: George Margarson · draw 12 3yo · G · bC&DGoing 1/2	473141	9-01	70	—	—	47.4	9/1·10.30	8.8·8.80 Betfair Exchange · -15% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Betfair Exchange8.8·8.80Smarkets8.6·8.60Ladbrokes15/2·8.50 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Coral15/2·8.50 Midnite7/1·8.00 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00 BetTom7/1·8.00 Betfred7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Paddy Power7/1·8.00 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00Matchbook8·8.00Hollywood Bets13/2·7.507Bet13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50 William Hill13/2·7.50 Bet36513/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.50BetMGM6/1·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00
1	Drifts Away J: Ray Dawson · T: T. J. Kent · draw 11 5yo · G · bbFT BC&DGoing 2/3Only runner	87119	10-01	81	—	—	47.3	16/1·16.74	14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports · -10% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.00Paddy Power14/1·15.00Matchbook14.5·14.50Smarkets14.5·14.50Betfair Exchange14·14.00 SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00 7Bet12/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00William Hill12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Betano11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 Bet Victor11/1·12.00
12	Trinculo J: Luke Morris · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 3 3yo · G · blpFT POnly pairing	83350	8-12	67	—	—	41.1	50/1·52.80	60·60.00 Matchbook · +14% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook60·60.00BetTom40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 Betfair Exchange40·40.00Smarkets38·38.00LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.00SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00
8	Galileo Island J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Tom Ward · draw 9 3yo · G · bOnly runner	24839	9-05	74	—	—	40.9	33/1·33.48	28/1·29.00 Coral · -13% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Coral28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 Bet36528/1·29.00Matchbook27·27.007Bet25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 Midnite25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00Smarkets24·24.00Betfair Exchange24·24.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00
10	You Sexy Thing J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer · draw 2 3yo · G · bpFT P	30644	9-02	71	—	—	40.7	15/2·8.37	7.4·7.40 Matchbook · -12% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook7.4·7.40Smarkets7.2·7.20SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Betfair Exchange7·7.00 Bet36511/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50 Boyle Sports11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50Paddy Power11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00BetWright5/1·6.00 7Bet5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00William Hill5/1·6.00 Betano9/2·5.50 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50
9	Ecclefechan J: Donagh Murphy(5) · T: John Ryan · draw 7 3yo · G · bC&DGoing 1/6	531179	9-04	73	—	—	40.5	40/1·43.78	38·38.00 Matchbook · -13% vs fair Compare 28 books ▾ Matchbook38·38.00Smarkets36·36.007Bet35/1·36.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 Star Sports33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.00Dragon Bet33/1·34.00Hollywood Bets33/1·34.00Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Paddy Power33/1·34.00 BetTom33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00BetMGM25/1·26.00 Bet Victor25/1·26.00 Betano25/1·26.00 Betfair Exchange20·20.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 28 bookmakers per horse with the 29% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Moulton Racing Club Handicap Stakes?

The Moulton Racing Club Handicap Stakes is off at 16:40 on 5 October 2026 at Yarmouth (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:40 Yarmouth?

1m, Class 4, Flat, 12 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:40 Yarmouth?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:40 Yarmouth?

The AI top-rated runner is Rogue Allegiance (score 55.5, best price 11.50). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:40 Yarmouth?

The market favourite is Media Legend at a best price of 5.50. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Rogue Allegiance.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org