16:15 Fairyhouse

Ireland

Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle

2m4f · Hurdle · Good · 13 runners · €9,300 · Monday, 5 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (13 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Gunnery Sergeant

No. 4 · score 51.5 · +2.2 clear of next best · best 25/1·26.00

Best value vs consensus

Gunnery Sergeant (also top rated)

26·26.00 Matchbook · +5% vs fair (consensus 24.66)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 27 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way28.5/100 rating

Rebel Reba

12.50Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Gunnery Sergeant

Jordan Gainford · Gordon Elliott · 6yo

Top-rated of 13

score 51.5 · +2.2 clear of next best (49.3)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Ratings50% weight
69strong
OR 104 — highest combined rating in the field
Freshness10% weight
65strong
95d since last run (rusty)
Form20% weight
29weak
Last 6: 2-5-8-5-5
Trainer20% weight
23weak
Gordon Elliott: 4/47 winners last 14d (9%)

MarketBest price 26.00 (Matchbook) · 8th in the market of 13.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(4)
2Its Time For A Run 4Gunnery Sergeant 5S T Hamo 7Folk Warrior
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(3)
1Airds Moss 6Well Bud 8Who's Going
Unknown(6)
3Coppernpex 9Mary O'G 10Rebel Reba 11Risen Tide 12Say It Straight 13Booklight

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
4	Gunnery SergeantPick J: Jordan Gainford · T: Gordon Elliott · draw 0 6yo · G · btpOnly ride	25855	11-04	104	—	—	51.5	25/1·24.66	26·26.00 Matchbook · +5% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook26·26.00Smarkets24·24.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Boyle Sports18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00William Hill18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00BetWright18/1·19.00 BetMGM16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 Betfair Exchange17·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00
8	Who's Going J: Danny Gilligan · T: Gordon Elliott · draw 0 · combo 3/67 (4%) 4yo · G · bOnly pairing	0804	11-02	103	—	—	49.3	22/1·22.06	21·21.00 Matchbook · -5% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook21·21.00Smarkets19.5·19.50SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Bet36516/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00BetMGM14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Midnite14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 Betfair Exchange6.2·6.20
7	Folk Warrior J: Daniel King · T: J A Nash · draw 0 4yo · G · chOnly runner	07785	11-02	92	—	—	41.2	50/1·53.21	70·70.00 Matchbook · +32% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook70·70.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00Paddy Power50/1·51.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00William Hill40/1·41.00 BetMGM33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 Star Sports33/1·34.00Smarkets30·30.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Betfair Exchange5.3·5.30
1	Airds Moss J: Cian Quirke · T: David Harry Kelly · draw 0 · combo 2/17 (12%) 5yo · G · b	32144	11-12	—	—	—	30.8	4/1·5.19	4.2·4.20 Smarkets · -19% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets4.2·4.20SmarketsSBK16/5·4.20 BetTom3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00 Betfred3/1·4.00 Coral3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 Ladbrokes3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 Bet3653/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00William Hill3/1·4.00Matchbook4·4.00Betfair Sportsbook3/1·4.00Paddy Power3/1·4.00 Unibet3/1·4.00 Betfair Exchange3.8·3.80 Betano11/4·3.75 Midnite11/4·3.75 Bet Victor11/4·3.75 BetMGM11/4·3.75 Star Sports11/4·3.75Hollywood Bets5/2·3.50
10	Rebel Reba J: Brian Hayes · T: W. P. Mullins · draw 0 · combo 10/57 (18%) 6yo · M · bOnly pairing	541	10-11	—	—	—	28.5	6/1·7.14	12.5·12.50 Matchbook · +75% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook12.5·12.50SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50Smarkets8.4·8.40Midnite5/1·6.00 Paddy Power5/1·6.00 Betfair Exchange5.7·5.70 Bet Victor9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 Betano9/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.50William Hill9/2·5.50Betfair Sportsbook9/2·5.50Bet3654/1·5.00 BetMGM4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00
13	Booklight J: Sean Flanagan · T: C A McBratney · draw 0 4yo · F · chhFT HOnly runner		10-09	—	—	—	26.5	66/1·66.19	150·150.00 Matchbook · +127% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook150·150.00Bet36550/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 Midnite50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00Paddy Power50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Bet Victor40/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00Smarkets40·40.00SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Betfair Exchange6.6·6.60
12	Say It Straight J: Danny Mullins · T: W. P. Mullins · draw 0 · combo 4/25 (16%) 5yo · M · bOnly ride	—	10-11	—	—	—	25.0	17/2·9.73	9.4·9.40 Matchbook · -3% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook9.4·9.40Smarkets9.2·9.20SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 Betfair Exchange8.4·8.40Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Paddy Power7/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 Spreadex13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.50William Hill13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 BetTom13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 BetMGM6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Star Sports6/1·7.00Hollywood Bets6/1·7.00
5	S T Hamo J: James Smith(3) · T: A. McCann · draw 0 · combo 1/17 (6%) 5yo · G · bh	06435	11-04	—	—	—	24.5	33/1·33.74	75·75.00 Matchbook · +122% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook75·75.00Smarkets30·30.00Bet36528/1·29.00 Midnite28/1·29.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Betano22/1·23.00 Bet Victor22/1·23.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange6.4·6.40
2	Its Time For A Run J: Donagh Meyler · T: Emmet Mullins · draw 0 · combo 1/31 (3%) 5yo · G · b	7814	11-12	—	—	—	20.3	8/1·9.08	6/1·7.00 Bet365 · -23% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Bet3656/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00William Hill6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00Paddy Power6/1·7.00Hollywood Bets6/1·7.00SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 BetMGM11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50Smarkets6.2·6.20Matchbook6.2·6.20SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00 Betfair Exchange5.8·5.80
6	Well Bud J: Jack Kennedy · T: Eoin Christopher McCarthy · draw 0 5yo · G · btOnly pairing	F3752	11-04	—	—	—	18.0	15/2·8.57	6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports · -18% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 Paddy Power6/1·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 Unibet6/1·7.00Smarkets6.6·6.60Matchbook6.6·6.60LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50Bet Victor11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50Betfair Exchange6.2·6.20 BetMGM5/1·6.00 SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00
9	Mary O'G J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: Henry de Bromhead · draw 0 · combo 28/142 (20%) 5yo · M · br	35	10-11	—	—	—	16.5	11/2·6.49	6.6·6.60 Matchbook · +2% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook6.6·6.60Betfair Exchange6·6.00Smarkets5.8·5.80SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 BetMGM4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00Bet3654/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00William Hill4/1·5.00 Paddy Power4/1·5.00 Bet Victor7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 Star Sports7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50
3	Coppernpex J: Aidan Kelly · T: Padraig Roche · draw 0 · combo 0/5 (0%) 5yo · G · chOnly ride	—	11-04	—	—	—	15.0	40/1·44.12	100·100.00 Matchbook · +127% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook100·100.00Midnite40/1·41.00Smarkets38·38.00Bet36533/1·34.00 BetTom33/1·34.00 BetWright33/1·34.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 Dragon Bet33/1·34.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 SportingIndex33/1·34.00 Spreadex33/1·34.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 William Hill33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook33/1·34.00Paddy Power33/1·34.00Hollywood Bets33/1·34.00Bet Victor28/1·29.00 Betano28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00BetMGM25/1·26.00 Betfair Exchange6.6·6.60
11	Risen Tide J: J J Slevin · T: Ms Claire O'Connell · draw 0 5yo · M · btFT TOnly ride	3PP	10-11	—	—	—	8.5	80/1·86.95	200·200.00 Matchbook · +130% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook200·200.00Bet36566/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 Betfred66/1·67.00 Boyle Sports66/1·67.00 Coral66/1·67.00 Ladbrokes66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 Midnite66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 Unibet66/1·67.00 William Hill66/1·67.00Betfair Sportsbook66/1·67.00Paddy Power66/1·67.00Hollywood Bets66/1·67.00BetWright60/1·61.00 Dragon Bet60/1·61.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00Smarkets48·48.00SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00 Betfair Exchange7·7.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27 bookmakers per horse with the 30% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle?

The Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle is off at 16:15 on 5 October 2026 at Fairyhouse (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:15 Fairyhouse?

2m4f, Hurdle, 13 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:15 Fairyhouse?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:15 Fairyhouse?

The AI top-rated runner is Gunnery Sergeant (score 51.5, best price 26.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:15 Fairyhouse?

The market favourite is Airds Moss at a best price of 4.20. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Gunnery Sergeant.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org