16:50 Fairyhouse

Ireland

Winter Festival November 28th & 29th Handicap Hurdle

3m · Hurdle · Good · 13 runners · €7,200 · Monday, 5 October 2026

Compare all prices

E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (13 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Mephisto

No. 2 · score 57.3 · +4.1 clear of next best · best 20/1·21.00

Best value vs consensus

No book currently stands out from the market consensus in this race. Prices refresh every few minutes.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way53.1/100 rating

Mickey Cohen

11.00Quinn Bet

Place portion settles at 3.00 · 1/5 odds · 4 places

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Joya Del MarDiffers from our pick

Joya Del Mar is our selection, and the case rests on a fitness edge and a progressive profile that make her worth preferring to Dinoland, who tops our figures by only 5 lb. On 102 she sits well within range of the best in a competitive 13-runner event over 24f on good ground, and the way she is trending suggests there is more to come. Dinoland is the obvious danger as the top-rated runner, with Tippinaway and Mephisto only a pound or so further back and every bit as capable of taking this. It is a tight, open contest, but Joya Del Mar looks the one to be on.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Mephisto

Eoghan Finegan(5) · Gerard Keane · 9yo

Top-rated of 13

score 57.3 · +4.1 clear of next best (53.2)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
85very strong
40d since last run (fresh)
Ratings50% weight
70strong
OR 105 — above field median
Trainer20% weight
55small sample (n=9)
Gerard Keane: 2/9 winners last 14d (22%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Form20% weight
14weak
Last 6: 4-7-0-0-6-6

MarketBest price 21.00 (Betfair Sportsbook) · 9th in the market of 13.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: No confirmed front-runner — likely a slow start, race may turn into a sprint.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(3)
1Joya Del Mar 4Dinoland 11Smackwater Jack
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(6)
2Mephisto 5Midleton Rare 8Diamond Tipp 10Broken Ice 12Leading Endeavour 13Technology
Unknown(4)
3Tippinaway 6Mickey Cohen 7Sights Unseen 9Full Noise

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	MephistoPick J: Eoghan Finegan(5) · T: Gerard Keane · draw 0 · combo 0/14 (0%) 9yo · G · grtvOnly pairing	470066	11-11	105	—	—	57.3	25/1·24.97	20/1·21.00 Betfair Sportsbook · -16% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00William Hill18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00 BetMGM16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00Star Sports16/1·17.00 Midnite14/1·15.00Smarkets13.5·13.50SmarketsSBK12/1·13.00Matchbook12.5·12.50Betfair Exchange7·7.00
1	Joya Del Mar J: Mr J P Sutton(7) · T: Dermot A McLoughlin · draw 0 8yo · M · bpGoing 1/4Only ride	16135P	11-12	106	—	—	53.2	18/1·19.71	20·20.00 Smarkets · +2% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets20·20.00Matchbook20·20.00SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00William Hill14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Star Sports12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Betfair Exchange9.4·9.40
6	Mickey Cohen J: Mr Finn Tegetmeier(7) · T: Noel Meade · draw 0 · combo 0/6 (0%) 5yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	12456	11-05	99	—	—	53.1	14/1·14.46	10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet · -24% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00Virgin Bet10/1·11.00William Hill10/1·11.00Betfair Sportsbook10/1·11.00Paddy Power10/1·11.00 Bet36510/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Dragon Bet10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 LiveScore Bet10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 BetWright10/1·11.00Smarkets10.5·10.50Matchbook10.5·10.50Star Sports9/1·10.00 Bet Victor9/1·10.00 Betano9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Betfair Exchange8.4·8.40
4	Dinoland J: Sam Ewing · T: W R Crawford · draw 0 8yo · G · btvOn last winning markOnly pairing	PPP11	11-08	102	—	—	52.5	7/2·4.60	4.4·4.40 Smarkets · -4% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets4.4·4.40SmarketsSBK16/5·4.20 Betfair Exchange4·4.00Matchbook3.6·3.60Midnite5/2·3.50 Betfred5/2·3.50 Coral5/2·3.50 Ladbrokes5/2·3.50 LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50 Quinn Bet5/2·3.50 SportingIndex5/2·3.50 Spreadex5/2·3.50 Bet3655/2·3.50 BetTom5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50William Hill5/2·3.50Betfair Sportsbook5/2·3.50Paddy Power5/2·3.50 BetWright12/5·3.40 Dragon Bet12/5·3.40 Unibet9/4·3.25 Star Sports9/4·3.25 Bet Victor9/4·3.25 BetMGM9/4·3.25 Betano9/4·3.25 Boyle Sports9/4·3.25Hollywood Bets9/4·3.25
9	Full Noise J: Philip Donovan · T: Gary McGill · draw 0 · combo 1/5 (20%) 10yo · G · chOnly rideOnly runner	42533	11-04	98	—	—	52.3	15/2·8.54	7.4·7.40 Smarkets · -13% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets7.4·7.40Matchbook7.4·7.40Betfair Exchange7·7.00 Bet3656/1·7.00 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 William Hill6/1·7.00 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 BetMGM11/2·6.50 BetTom11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 Betfred11/2·6.50 Boyle Sports11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50 LiveScore Bet11/2·6.50 Quinn Bet11/2·6.50 Coral11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50SportingIndex11/2·6.50 Spreadex11/2·6.50 Unibet11/2·6.50Virgin Bet11/2·6.50Paddy Power11/2·6.50 Midnite5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00
3	Tippinaway J: Richard Deegan · T: Eric Larkin · draw 0 6yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	4160	11-09	103	—	—	50.4	25/1·24.97	22·22.00 Smarkets · -12% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets22·22.00Matchbook22·22.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Unibet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00Bet Victor18/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 Midnite18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00 William Hill18/1·19.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00BetMGM16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 Betfair Exchange10.5·10.50
10	Broken Ice J: Paddy Cody(7) · T: John McConnell · draw 0 10yo · G · btOnly ride	50352	11-03	97	—	—	48.9	11/2·6.57	6.4·6.40 Smarkets · -3% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets6.4·6.40Betfair Exchange6·6.00 SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00Paddy Power4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00Matchbook5·5.00BetWright4/1·5.00 Unibet7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 Bet Victor7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 Boyle Sports10/3·4.33 Star Sports10/3·4.33 BetMGM10/3·4.33Hollywood Bets3/1·4.00
5	Midleton Rare J: Ms E Dunseath(7) · T: Noel C. Kelly · draw 0 · combo 0/10 (0%) 8yo · G · btp	P9020	11-08	102	—	—	48.3	16/1·17.09	15·15.00 Matchbook · -12% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook15·15.00Smarkets15·15.00SmarketsSBK14/1·15.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Midnite12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00 Unibet12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00 Coral12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Bet Victor11/1·12.00 BetMGM11/1·12.00 Betano11/1·12.00 LiveScore Bet11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00Virgin Bet11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Paddy Power11/1·12.00 Betfair Exchange5.4·5.40
11	Smackwater Jack J: Danny Gilligan · T: Mrs Denise Foster · draw 0 12yo · G · bOn last winning markDOnly runner	913299	11-00	94	—	—	47.1	28/1·30.23	22/1·23.00 Bet365 · -24% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Bet36522/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 BetWright22/1·23.00 Betfred22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00 Dragon Bet22/1·23.00 Quinn Bet22/1·23.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00 Spreadex22/1·23.00 Unibet22/1·23.00 William Hill22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Paddy Power22/1·23.00Hollywood Bets22/1·23.00Smarkets21·21.00Bet Victor20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00Matchbook21·21.00BetMGM20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet20/1·21.00Virgin Bet20/1·21.00Midnite18/1·19.00 SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00 Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20
8	Diamond Tipp J: Jack Kennedy · T: Martin Hassett · draw 0 6yo · M · baybrowntpOnly runner	8P2706	11-04	98	—	—	46.7	8/1·9.20	7.6·7.60 Smarkets · -17% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets7.6·7.60William Hill13/2·7.50Matchbook7.4·7.40Bet3656/1·7.00 Betfair Exchange7·7.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00 Ladbrokes6/1·7.00 LiveScore Bet6/1·7.00 Quinn Bet6/1·7.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00 Coral6/1·7.00Hollywood Bets6/1·7.00Unibet6/1·7.00Virgin Bet6/1·7.00Paddy Power6/1·7.00 BetMGM11/2·6.50 Midnite11/2·6.50 Star Sports11/2·6.50Betfair Sportsbook11/2·6.50
12	Leading Endeavour J: Conor Clarke(7) · T: P J Rothwell · draw 0 · combo 1/12 (8%) 7yo · M · chpOnly ride	935P	10-04	84	—	—	40.8	28/1·30.23	28/1·29.00 Midnite · -4% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Midnite28/1·29.00Smarkets27·27.00Matchbook27·27.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Bet36522/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 BetWright22/1·23.00 Betfred22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00 Dragon Bet22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00Hollywood Bets22/1·23.00Quinn Bet22/1·23.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00 Spreadex22/1·23.00 Unibet22/1·23.00 William Hill22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Paddy Power22/1·23.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet20/1·21.00Virgin Bet20/1·21.00Betfair Exchange5.7·5.70
7	Sights Unseen J: Alix Balfe(7) · T: Dermot A McLoughlin · draw 0 · combo 0/17 (0%) 7yo · M · bpOnly ride	29500	11-05	99	—	—	39.9	33/1·34.17	28/1·29.00 Midnite · -15% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Midnite28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 William Hill25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00Smarkets25·25.00Matchbook25·25.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00Star Sports22/1·23.00 Bet Victor22/1·23.00 Betano22/1·23.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00Hollywood Bets22/1·23.00BetMGM20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Betfair Exchange5.7·5.70
13	Technology J: Shane Fitzsimons(7) · T: John McConnell · draw 0 · combo 0/17 (0%) 9yo · G · btOnly ride	0F020	10-04	84	—	—	39.2	18/1·19.71	14/1·15.00 BetMGM · -24% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ BetMGM14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Coral14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 Ladbrokes14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 SportingIndex14/1·15.00 Spreadex14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Paddy Power14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00Smarkets14.5·14.50SmarketsSBK13/1·14.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Star Sports12/1·13.00Matchbook12.5·12.50Midnite11/1·12.00 Betfair Exchange9.8·9.80

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27 bookmakers per horse with the 31% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Winter Festival November 28th & 29th Handicap Hurdle?

The Winter Festival November 28th & 29th Handicap Hurdle is off at 16:50 on 5 October 2026 at Fairyhouse (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:50 Fairyhouse?

3m, Hurdle, 13 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:50 Fairyhouse?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:50 Fairyhouse?

The AI top-rated runner is Mephisto (score 57.3, best price 21.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:50 Fairyhouse?

The market favourite is Dinoland at a best price of 4.40. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Mephisto.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org