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14:45 Killarney

Ireland

Killarney Student Raceday Handicap

1m · Flat · Yielding To Soft · 15 runners · €6,000 · Monday, 5 October 2026

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Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated
No. 4 · score 55.5 · +0.3 clear of next best · best 6/1·6.80
Best value vs consensus

No book currently stands out from the market consensus in this race. Prices refresh every few minutes.

Each-way55.5/100 rating
Concaire
6.80Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Nibras RainbowDiffers from our pick

Nibras Rainbow is the pick at Killarney, and the case rests on a progressive profile that makes him more appealing than his figures alone suggest. He is rated 59, six pounds behind the top-rated Oppenheimer, but a horse still on the upgrade can close that sort of gap, and the race is run on soft ground over a mile. Oppenheimer is the main danger on 65, with Cisterna a point behind on 64 and Big Bill on 62 also in the mix, so this is a competitive contest with a big field of 15 and the selection is a low-confidence one. Even so, the improving profile makes Nibras Rainbow the one to side with.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Concaire

W. J. Lee · Richard John O'Brien · 3yo

Top-rated of 18
score 55.5 · +0.3 clear of next best (55.2)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Trainer20% weight
    100small sample (n=3)
    Richard John O'Brien: 2/3 winners last 14d (67%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    19d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Ratings50% weight
    37below average
    OR 55
  • Form20% weight
    36below average
    Last 6: 8-6-2-7-4-5
MarketBest price 6.80 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 18.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Killarney 1m

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24).

Low (1–6)
IV 1.24
Mid (7–12)
IV 1.12
High (13–18)
IV 0.63

Today: Nibras Rainbow (draw 1) and Jasmine Affanalis (draw 5) get the bias; Concaire (draw 14) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 72 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair
No.HorseFormORAIFairBestAdd to betslip
4
J: W. J. Lee · T: Richard John O'Brien · draw 14 · combo 2/14 (14%)
3yo · G · bhOnly runner
862745
5555.517/2·9.466.8·6.80
Matchbook · -28% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾
2
J: Nina Doherty(10) · T: Paul W Flynn · draw 1
6yo · G · bbOnly rideOnly runner
213933
5855.29/1·10.256/1·7.00
Betfred · -32% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾
1
J: Sam Coen(5) · T: David Marnane · draw 5
4yo · F · bOnly pairing
200207
5942.714/1·15.7710/1·11.00
Coral · -30% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾
11
J: Andrew Slattery · T: A. Slattery · draw 7 · combo 8/136 (6%)
3yo · G · bpFT P
084230
4742.016/1·17.3515.5·15.50
Smarkets · -11% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾
3
J: Reese Holohan(5) · T: Aidan Melia · draw 16 · combo 2/5 (40%)
3yo · G · bpOn last winning markDOnly runner
76051
5641.27/1·7.895.4·5.40
Smarkets · -31% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾
—
J: · T: A. Slattery · draw 11
3yo · G · b
558020
5840.218/1·18.9317.5·17.50
Smarkets · -7% vs fair
Compare 25 books ▾
14
J: James Ryan · T: T G McCourt · draw 2 · combo 1/45 (2%)
7yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner
078526
4139.217/2·9.468.4·8.40
Smarkets · -11% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾
10
J: Luke McAteer · T: Rory Anthony Devine · draw 8 · combo 0/16 (0%)
3yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner
007
4934.366/1·64.6748·48.00
Smarkets · -26% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾
9
J: Jimmy Dalton(7) · T: M J Byrne · draw 4
3yo · F · bpOnly ride
004702
4932.620/1·20.5118·18.00
Smarkets · -12% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾
6
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Gillian Scott · draw 15 · combo 1/5 (20%)
7yo · G · bbOnly runner
99757
5130.433/1·33.1224·24.00
Smarkets · -28% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾
8
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Donal Kinsella · draw 9
4yo · G · chtpOn last winning markDOnly runner
10040
4629.112/1·12.6210.5·10.50
Matchbook · -17% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾
15
J: W. M. Lordan · T: T J O'Mara · draw 13 · combo 0/7 (0%)
6yo · G · brhOnly runner
04369
4028.410/1·11.049.6·9.60
Smarkets · -13% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾
7
J: Rory Cleary · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman · draw 12 · combo 2/29 (7%)
3yo · F · bOnly pairing
08070
5126.650/1·53.6340/1·41.00
Midnite · -23% vs fair
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—
J: · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman · draw 6
3yo · G · b
07400
5226.520/1·20.5114.5·14.50
Smarkets · -29% vs fair
Compare 25 books ▾
12
J: Gavin Ryan · T: P J F Murphy · draw 18 · combo 0/8 (0%)
3yo · G · bOnly runner
6900
4626.066/1·64.6748·48.00
Matchbook · -26% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾
5
J: Gearoid Brouder(5) · T: Ian O'Connor · draw 10
5yo · M · bhOnly ride
00000
5225.880/1·80.4466/1·67.00
Midnite · -17% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾
—
J: · T: Ian O'Connor · draw 17
5yo · G · bhFT H
00000
5324.266/1·64.6750/1·51.00
Midnite · -21% vs fair
Compare 25 books ▾
13
J: Wesley Joyce · T: M K Flannery · draw 3
4yo · G · btFT TOnly rideOnly runner
0007
4219.766/1·64.6750/1·51.00
Midnite · -21% vs fair
Compare 27 books ▾

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 25–27 bookmakers per horse with the 58% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Killarney Student Raceday Handicap?

The Killarney Student Raceday Handicap is off at 14:45 on 5 October 2026 at Killarney (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:45 Killarney?

1m, Flat, 15 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:45 Killarney?

Going is reported as Yielding To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:45 Killarney?

The AI top-rated runner is Concaire (score 55.5, best price 6.80). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:45 Killarney?

The market favourite is Big Bill at a best price of 5.40. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Concaire.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org