17:05 Killarney

Ireland

Spin Southwest Maiden

1m3f · Flat · Yielding To Soft · 10 runners · €6,601 · Monday, 5 October 2026

Compare all prices

E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (10 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Blue Nasturtium

No. 6 · score 42.8 · best 4/1·5.10

Best value vs consensus

Enchanted Lady

17.5·17.50 Smarkets · +6% vs fair (consensus 16.53)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 27 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way42.8/100 rating

Blue Nasturtium

5.10Smarkets

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Blue Nasturtium

W. J. Lee · K J Condon · 4yo

Top-rated of 10

score 42.8 · +0.1 clear of next best (42.8)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
19d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
48below average
Last 6: 4-5-3
Ratings50% weight
47below average
OR 70
Trainer20% weight
0small sample (n=1)
K J Condon: 0/1 winners last 14d (0%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard

MarketBest price 5.10 (Smarkets) · 3rd in the market of 10.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
4Navy Guitar 6Blue Nasturtium
Prominent(1)
3Joe Cool
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(5)
1Footstepstoglory 2Guitar Star 5Ballybawn Belter 7Enchanted Lady 9Shemiyka
Unknown(2)
8Nogs 10Tears I Nevercried

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Killarney 1m3f

full course data →

Sample too small to call at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 1.22

Mid (5–7)

IV 1.21

High (8–10)

IV 0.56

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 27 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
6	Blue NasturtiumPick J: W. J. Lee · T: K J Condon · draw 5 4yo · F · ch	453	9-04	70	—	—	42.8	9/2·5.51	5.1·5.10 Smarkets · -7% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets5.1·5.10Betfair Exchange5·5.00 SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00Matchbook4.7·4.70Bet3657/2·4.50 Boyle Sports10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33 Midnite10/3·4.33 Quinn Bet10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33 William Hill10/3·4.33 Paddy Power10/3·4.33Hollywood Bets10/3·4.33BetTom10/3·4.33 BetWright10/3·4.33 Betfred10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 BetMGM16/5·4.20 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00Betfair Sportsbook3/1·4.00SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00
9	Shemiyka J: Jamie Powell · T: M D O'Callaghan · draw 3 4yo · F · bvOnly ride	95349	9-04	71	—	—	42.8	13/2·7.63	7.4·7.40 Smarkets · -3% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets7.4·7.40Matchbook7.4·7.40SmarketsSBK6/1·7.00 Betfair Exchange6.8·6.80 Unibet11/2·6.50 BetWright11/2·6.50Hollywood Bets11/2·6.50Paddy Power11/2·6.50 Dragon Bet11/2·6.50 Midnite5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00William Hill5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 BetMGM5/1·6.00 Bet Victor5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 BetTom5/1·6.00 Betfred5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00Betfair Sportsbook5/1·6.00SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Betano5/1·6.00 Star Sports9/2·5.50
3	Joe Cool J: Adam Caffrey · T: Noel Meade · draw 10 4yo · G · bpFT P	22409	9-09	72	—	—	41.3	4/1·5.09	10/3·4.33 Paddy Power · -15% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Paddy Power10/3·4.33Betfair Sportsbook10/3·4.33Coral3/1·4.00 Ladbrokes3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00 BetMGM3/1·4.00 William Hill3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00BetTom3/1·4.00 Betfred3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00Hollywood Bets3/1·4.00Betano3/1·4.00 Unibet3/1·4.00 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 Star Sports11/4·3.75 Bet36511/4·3.75 Midnite11/4·3.75Matchbook3.65·3.65Smarkets3.6·3.60SmarketsSBK13/5·3.60 Betfair Exchange2.68·2.68
2	Guitar Star J: J M Sheridan · T: R P Cody · draw 1 4yo · G · chtFT TOnly pairing	—	9-09	—	—	—	40.0	20/1·21.62	20/1·21.00 Bet365 · -3% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Bet36520/1·21.00Hollywood Bets18/1·19.00SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00Smarkets19·19.00Matchbook19·19.00BetTom16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 Paddy Power16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 William Hill16/1·17.00 BetMGM16/1·17.00 BetWright16/1·17.00 Dragon Bet16/1·17.00 Betfred16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00Virgin Bet14/1·15.00Star Sports14/1·15.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook12/1·13.00Betfair Exchange6.2·6.20
7	Enchanted Lady J: Ben Coen · T: A Oliver · draw 2 4yo · F · bOnly pairing	457970	9-04	61	—	—	37.7	16/1·16.53	17.5·17.50 Smarkets · +6% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets17.5·17.50SmarketsSBK16/1·17.00 Coral14/1·15.00 Paddy Power14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 BetTom12/1·13.00 BetWright12/1·13.00 Betfred12/1·13.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Dragon Bet12/1·13.00 Ladbrokes12/1·13.00 Quinn Bet12/1·13.00 SportingIndex12/1·13.00 Spreadex12/1·13.00Hollywood Bets12/1·13.00Unibet12/1·13.00 William Hill12/1·13.00Virgin Bet12/1·13.00Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00Matchbook13·13.00BetMGM11/1·12.00 Midnite11/1·12.00 Star Sports11/1·12.00Betfair Sportsbook11/1·12.00Betfair Exchange5.4·5.40
5	Ballybawn Belter J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Liz Doyle · draw 7 8yo · M · bOnly runner	26	9-04	—	—	—	17.9	4/1·4.77	4.5·4.50 Smarkets · -6% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets4.5·4.50SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Betfair Exchange4.3·4.30Matchbook4.1·4.10Bet3653/1·4.00 Midnite3/1·4.00 Paddy Power11/4·3.75 Coral11/4·3.75 Ladbrokes11/4·3.75 BetMGM11/4·3.75 BetWright11/4·3.75 Dragon Bet11/4·3.75 BetTom11/4·3.75 Betfred11/4·3.75 Boyle Sports11/4·3.75 Bet Victor11/4·3.75 Betano11/4·3.75 Unibet11/4·3.75 William Hill11/4·3.75 Quinn Bet11/4·3.75 SportingIndex11/4·3.75 Spreadex11/4·3.75Hollywood Bets11/4·3.75Betfair Sportsbook5/2·3.50LiveScore Bet5/2·3.50Virgin Bet5/2·3.50Star Sports5/2·3.50
1	Footstepstoglory J: G. F. Carroll · T: David Harry Kelly · draw 4 5yo · G · brtFT TCOnly runner	960	9-09	—	—	—	17.0	22/1·24.16	22·22.00 Matchbook · -9% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Matchbook22·22.00Smarkets22·22.00Paddy Power20/1·21.00Betfair Sportsbook20/1·21.00SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00 SportingIndex18/1·19.00 William Hill18/1·19.00 Unibet18/1·19.00 Betfred18/1·19.00 Coral18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes18/1·19.00 Spreadex18/1·19.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.00BetMGM16/1·17.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00Midnite16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Betfair Exchange5.9·5.90
8	Nogs J: Killian Leonard · T: M J Byrne · draw 6 4yo · F · gOnly ride	—	9-04	—	—	—	15.0	66/1·64.85	66/1·67.00 Midnite · +3% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Midnite66/1·67.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 Paddy Power50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00SportingIndex50/1·51.00Smarkets48·48.00SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00Star Sports40/1·41.00Matchbook32·32.00Betfair Exchange7·7.00
4	Navy Guitar J: Diego Lima · T: Diego Dias · draw 9 7yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	58	9-09	—	—	—	13.3	9/1·10.17	10·10.00 Smarkets · -2% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Smarkets10·10.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00Matchbook10·10.00Bet3658/1·9.00 Paddy Power15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 Midnite15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50Hollywood Bets15/2·8.50Quinn Bet15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50 BetWright7/1·8.00Betfair Sportsbook7/1·8.00Boyle Sports7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 BetTom7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 LiveScore Bet7/1·8.00Virgin Bet7/1·8.00Star Sports7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 SportingIndex7/1·8.00 Spreadex7/1·8.00 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 BetMGM13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50 Betfair Exchange4.8·4.80
10	Tears I Nevercried J: Alan Persse(5) · T: M A Cahill · draw 8 4yo · F · bOnly rideOnly runner	06	9-04	—	—	—	9.2	50/1·52.14	50/1·51.00 Ladbrokes · -2% vs fair Compare 27 books ▾ Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Paddy Power50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00Smarkets48·48.00SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00Matchbook44·44.00Unibet40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00William Hill40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00Star Sports33/1·34.00 Betfair Exchange7.2·7.20

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27 bookmakers per horse with the 27% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Spin Southwest Maiden?

The Spin Southwest Maiden is off at 17:05 on 5 October 2026 at Killarney (Ireland).

What is the field size and distance of the 17:05 Killarney?

1m3f, Flat, 10 runners declared.

What is the going for the 17:05 Killarney?

Going is reported as Yielding To Soft on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 17:05 Killarney?

The AI top-rated runner is Blue Nasturtium (score 42.8, best price 5.10). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 17:05 Killarney?

The market favourite is Joe Cool at a best price of 4.33. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Blue Nasturtium.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org