13:30 Bath

Your Elite Club Handicap Stakes

2m1f · Flat · Class 6 · Good · 12 runners · £3,454 · Thursday, 8 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/4 odds (13 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Smith

No. 13 · score 47.3 · +4.0 clear of next best · best 50/1·55.00

Best value vs consensus

Chillhi

75·75.00 Matchbook · +16% vs fair (consensus 64.45)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way39.4/100 rating

Merrijig

6.00Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: MerrijigDiffers from our pick

Merrijig heads our ratings at 71, four pounds ahead of Chillhi on 67, and that edge makes him the logical choice in a wide-open 13-runner Class 6 over 17f at Bath. Chillhi is the most obvious danger, with Al's River and Forest Hills both on 66 and close enough to take advantage if our pick is anything short of his best. The gaps through the middle of the field are small, so this is no gift, but Merrijig has the strongest numbers on the page and gets the vote. Merrijig is our selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Smith

Robert Havlin · Lydia Richards · 10yo

Top-rated of 13

score 47.3 · +4.0 clear of next best (43.3)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
100small sample (n=1)
Lydia Richards: 1/1 winners last 14d (100%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Freshness10% weight
100very strong
26d since last run (race-fit window)
Ratings50% weight
29weak
OR 43
Form20% weight
15weak
Last 6: 8-5-9-7

MarketBest price 55.00 (Matchbook) · 10th in the market of 13.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
9Al's River
Prominent(2)
4Chillhi Fram Castle
Mid-division(2)
2Merrijig 13Smith
Hold-up / closers(5)
7Individualiste 8Buck Barrow 10Nature 11Cherry Cola 12Star of Jupiter
Unknown(3)
1Calshot Spit 3Forest Hills 6Pacific Storm

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Bath 2m1f

full course data →

Strong: middle favoured (IV 1.36).

Low (1–5)

IV 0.88

Mid (6–9)

IV 1.36

High (10–13)

IV 0.83

Today: Calshot Spit (draw 9) and Forest Hills (draw 7) get the bias; Buck Barrow (draw 12) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 43 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
13	SmithPick J: Robert Havlin · T: Lydia Richards · draw 3 10yo · G · chvOnly runner	8597	9-00	43	—	—	47.3	40/1·40.87	55·55.00 Matchbook · +35% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook55·55.00Betfair Exchange50·50.00Smarkets48·48.00SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 SmarketsSBK40/1·41.00 Bet36533/1·34.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00Star Sports28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Midnite28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 Paddy Power25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 10 Bet25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 7Bet25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00Bet Victor22/1·23.00 Betano22/1·23.00
—	Fram Castle J: Taryn Langley(5) · T: Michael Wigham · draw 1 5yo · G · chvCGoing 1/2Only runner	8231	9-09	55	—	—	43.3	9/2·5.50	4·4.00 Matchbook · -27% vs fair Compare 20 books ▾ Matchbook4·4.00Betfair Exchange3.95·3.95 7Bet5/2·3.50 Unibet5/2·3.50 Betfred5/2·3.50 Bet3655/2·3.50 William Hill5/2·3.50 Boyle Sports5/2·3.50 Star Sports5/2·3.50 10 Bet5/2·3.50 Midnite5/2·3.50Betfair Sportsbook5/2·3.50Paddy Power5/2·3.50 Dragon Bet9/4·3.25 BetMGM9/4·3.25 Quinn Bet9/4·3.25 Coral2/1·3.00Hollywood Bets2/1·3.00BetWright2/1·3.00 Ladbrokes2/1·3.00
2	Merrijig J: Gina Mangan · T: John Berry · draw 5 · combo 1/10 (10%) 8yo · G · bbClass dropOnly runner	632364	10-00	60	—	—	39.4	7/1·7.86	6·6.00 Matchbook · -24% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook6·6.00Smarkets5.9·5.90Betfair Exchange5.9·5.90 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00Bet3654/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00 7Bet4/1·5.00 10 Bet4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 Paddy Power4/1·5.00 BetMGM4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Bet Victor7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50
6	Pacific Storm J: Jack Dace(5) · T: David Menuisier · draw 2 3yo · G · bvFT VOnly rideOnly runner	575	9-05	59	—	—	37.7	6/1·6.81	4.9·4.90 Smarkets · -28% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets4.9·4.90Betfair Exchange4.7·4.70Matchbook4.7·4.70SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Spreadex10/3·4.33 Star Sports10/3·4.33Betfair Sportsbook10/3·4.33Hollywood Bets10/3·4.33Unibet10/3·4.33 Paddy Power10/3·4.33Virgin Bet10/3·4.33SportingIndex10/3·4.33 Betfred10/3·4.33 LiveScore Bet10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 Midnite10/3·4.33 Quinn Bet10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 William Hill10/3·4.33 Betano3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 10 Bet3/1·4.00 BetTom3/1·4.00 BetMGM3/1·4.00 Bet3653/1·4.00 7Bet3/1·4.00 Bet Victor11/4·3.75
1	Calshot Spit J: Charles Bishop · T: Sheena West · draw 9 · combo 0/8 (0%) 6yo · G · bClass dropOnly pairing	21189	10-00	60	—	—	35.6	17/2·9.43	6.8·6.80 Smarkets · -28% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets6.8·6.80Betfair Exchange6.6·6.60Matchbook6.6·6.60SmarketsSBK11/2·6.50 SportingIndex5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00 Quinn Bet5/1·6.00Virgin Bet5/1·6.00Betfred5/1·6.00 Bet3655/1·6.00 Midnite5/1·6.00 Spreadex5/1·6.00 LiveScore Bet5/1·6.00 William Hill5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 10 Bet9/2·5.50 Paddy Power9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Betano4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00
3	Forest Hills J: Oliver Carmichael(7) · T: Carroll Gray · draw 7 5yo · G · bOnly runner	0325	9-13	59	—	—	35.6	80/1·80.17	130·130.00 Matchbook · +62% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook130·130.00Smarkets110·110.00Betfair Exchange95·95.00 SmarketsSBK70/1·71.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 Midnite66/1·67.00 Bet36566/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00Hollywood Bets50/1·51.00Quinn Bet50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00 BetWright50/1·51.00 Boyle Sports50/1·51.00 Dragon Bet50/1·51.00Virgin Bet50/1·51.00Ladbrokes50/1·51.00 William Hill50/1·51.00 Coral50/1·51.00 LiveScore Bet50/1·51.00 10 Bet50/1·51.00 BetTom50/1·51.00 Betfred50/1·51.00 7Bet50/1·51.00 BetMGM50/1·51.00 Star Sports50/1·51.00 Paddy Power50/1·51.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Bet Victor40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00
8	Buck Barrow J: George Wood · T: Adrian Wintle · draw 12 4yo · G · bpClass drop1lb below win mark	133538	9-03	49	—	—	34.7	14/1·14.93	11.5·11.50 Betfair Exchange · -23% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50Matchbook11.5·11.50Smarkets11·11.00Unibet9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 7Bet17/2·9.50 LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50 Paddy Power17/2·9.50 William Hill17/2·9.50Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.50Bet36517/2·9.50 Quinn Bet17/2·9.50Hollywood Bets17/2·9.50Virgin Bet17/2·9.50Betfred17/2·9.50 Midnite17/2·9.50 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 Betano15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50
9	Al's River J: Jack Mitchell · T: James Horton · draw 13 · combo 0/13 (0%) 3yo · G · bpOnly runner	648353	9-02	56	—	—	34.1	7/1·7.86	6.6·6.60 Smarkets · -16% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets6.6·6.60Betfair Exchange6.4·6.40Matchbook6.4·6.40SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00 Star Sports9/2·5.50 William Hill9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 Betfred9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 Midnite9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 7Bet4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 BetMGM4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.0010 Bet4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00Paddy Power4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Betano7/2·4.50
7	Individualiste J: Rose Dawes(3) · T: Ben Lund · draw 6 8yo · G · roOnly rideOnly runner	98472	9-04	50	—	—	31.8	14/1·15.72	14.5·14.50 Matchbook · -8% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook14.5·14.50Betfair Exchange14.5·14.50Smarkets14·14.00SmarketsSBK12/1·13.00 SportingIndex11/1·12.00 Spreadex11/1·12.00 Midnite10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00Betfair Sportsbook10/1·11.00Bet36510/1·11.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 Quinn Bet9/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 Boyle Sports9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Coral9/1·10.00 Paddy Power9/1·10.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 Ladbrokes9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 William Hill9/1·10.00 Betfred17/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Betano15/2·8.50 Bet Victor15/2·8.50
4	Chillhi J: David Probert · T: Barry Murphy · draw 8 6yo · G · btvClass dropOnly runner	6687	9-09	55	—	—	31.3	66/1·64.45	75·75.00 Matchbook · +16% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook75·75.00Betfair Exchange65·65.00Smarkets60·60.00SmarketsSBK55/1·56.00 Bet36550/1·51.00 SportingIndex50/1·51.00 Spreadex50/1·51.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 BetMGM40/1·41.00Betfair Sportsbook40/1·41.00Paddy Power40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00Hollywood Bets40/1·41.00Star Sports40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 Betfred33/1·34.00 Bet Victor33/1·34.00 10 Bet33/1·34.00 Betano33/1·34.00 Unibet28/1·29.00
11	Cherry Cola J: Tyler Heard · T: Sheena West · draw 10 10yo · M · chpOnly pairing	5864	9-00	46	—	—	31.1	28/1·29.87	30·30.00 Matchbook Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook30·30.00Betfair Exchange28·28.00Smarkets28·28.00SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 Spreadex22/1·23.00 SportingIndex22/1·23.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 Bet36520/1·21.00 LiveScore Bet18/1·19.00 Quinn Bet18/1·19.00Betfair Sportsbook18/1·19.00Virgin Bet18/1·19.0010 Bet18/1·19.00 BetTom18/1·19.00Hollywood Bets18/1·19.00Boyle Sports18/1·19.00 William Hill18/1·19.00 Paddy Power18/1·19.00 7Bet18/1·19.00 BetWright18/1·19.00 Dragon Bet18/1·19.00 Betano16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 BetMGM16/1·17.00 Bet Victor16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00
12	Star of Jupiter J: Paddy Bradley · T: Mark Loughnane · draw 4 · combo 0/13 (0%) 5yo · G · bt/bes	564254	9-00	44	—	—	30.6	11/1·11.79	10.5·10.50 Matchbook · -11% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook10.5·10.50Betfair Exchange9.4·9.40 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00Smarkets8.8·8.80William Hill7/1·8.00 Ladbrokes7/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 Coral7/1·8.00 Unibet7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 Bet3657/1·8.00 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.5010 Bet13/2·7.50Hollywood Bets13/2·7.50Paddy Power13/2·7.50 7Bet13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 BetMGM6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 Dragon Bet6/1·7.00Betfair Sportsbook6/1·7.00Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00
10	Nature J: Laura Coughlan(3) · T: Miss Celine De La Haye · draw 11 8yo · M · bpOnly rideOnly runner	746338	9-01	47	—	—	29.9	100/1·105.32	240·240.00 Matchbook · +128% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook240·240.00Smarkets230·230.00Betfair Exchange220·220.00 SmarketsSBK125/1·126.00 SportingIndex100/1·101.00 Spreadex100/1·101.00 Bet365100/1·101.00 Midnite80/1·81.00 7Bet70/1·71.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 William Hill66/1·67.00Betfair Sportsbook66/1·67.00Paddy Power66/1·67.00 Boyle Sports66/1·67.00 LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00 Unibet66/1·67.00Hollywood Bets66/1·67.00Coral66/1·67.00 Ladbrokes66/1·67.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00 10 Bet66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 Betfred66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00BetWright60/1·61.00 Dragon Bet60/1·61.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 20–29 bookmakers per horse with the 57% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Your Elite Club Handicap Stakes?

The Your Elite Club Handicap Stakes is off at 13:30 on 8 October 2026 at Bath (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 13:30 Bath?

2m1f, Class 6, Flat, 12 runners declared.

What is the going for the 13:30 Bath?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 13:30 Bath?

The AI top-rated runner is Smith (score 47.3, best price 55.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 13:30 Bath?

The market favourite is Fram Castle at a best price of 4.00. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Smith.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org