15:50 Bath

Seat Unique EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m · Flat · Class 4 · Good · 13 runners · £5,400 · Thursday, 8 October 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (14 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Grapple

No. 5 · score 47.7 · +16.2 clear of next best · best 25/1·27.00

Drawn 5, inside the favoured low third at this course and trip.

Best value vs consensus

Charmed Boy

12.5·12.50 Matchbook · +8% vs fair (consensus 11.61)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way27.0/100 rating

Mystic Shadow

4.80Matchbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Grapple

William Carver · Jamie Osborne · 2yo

Top-rated of 14

score 47.7 · +16.2 clear of next best (31.5)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
27d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
67strong
Last 6: 0-1
Ratings50% weight
49below average
OR 73 — highest combined rating in the field
Trainer20% weight
0weak
Jamie Osborne: 0/14 winners last 14d (0%)

MarketBest price 27.00 (Matchbook) · 5th in the market of 14.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(1)
6Tarn Hows
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(2)
5Grapple 13Kosima
Unknown(11)
1Aethelstan Gold 2Charmed Boy 3Desert Meeting 4Galimix 7Time To Spare 8Arkenforce 10Thai Boxer 11What A Go I've Had 12Als Dawn 14Mystic Shadow Sidewalking

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Bath 1m

full course data →

Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.18).

Low (1–5)

IV 1.18

Mid (6–10)

IV 0.97

High (11–14)

IV 0.82

Today: Grapple (draw 5) and Als Dawn (draw 1) get the bias; Mystic Shadow (draw 11) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 106 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
5	GrapplePick J: William Carver · T: Jamie Osborne · draw 5 · combo 5/76 (7%) 2yo · G · bbOnly runner	01	9-07	73	—	—	47.7	18/1·19.35	27·27.00 Matchbook · +40% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook27·27.00Betfair Exchange24·24.00Smarkets24·24.00SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00 Paddy Power16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00Coral16/1·17.00 BetTom14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 Unibet14/1·15.00Betfair Sportsbook14/1·15.0010 Bet14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00Hollywood Bets14/1·15.00Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 William Hill14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports12/1·13.00 Bet36512/1·13.00 Betano11/1·12.00 Bet Victor11/1·12.00
12	Als Dawn J: Tyler Heard · T: Gay Kelleway · draw 1 2yo · F · bhFT HOnly pairing	—	9-02	—	—	—	31.5	150/1·130.26	340·340.00 Matchbook · +161% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook340·340.00Betfair Exchange250·250.00Smarkets180·180.00Paddy Power150/1·151.00 LiveScore Bet125/1·126.00Virgin Bet125/1·126.00Bet365125/1·126.00 Star Sports125/1·126.00 Coral125/1·126.00Betfair Sportsbook125/1·126.00Ladbrokes125/1·126.00 Midnite125/1·126.00 Quinn Bet100/1·101.00 SportingIndex100/1·101.00 William Hill100/1·101.00 Unibet100/1·101.00 SmarketsSBK100/1·101.00 BetMGM100/1·101.00 Betfred100/1·101.00 Spreadex100/1·101.00 BetTom100/1·101.00 Dragon Bet100/1·101.00 7Bet100/1·101.00 BetWright100/1·101.00 Boyle Sports80/1·81.00 10 Bet80/1·81.00Hollywood Bets80/1·81.00Bet Victor66/1·67.00 Betano66/1·67.00
14	Mystic Shadow J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 11 · combo 24/135 (18%) 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	27.0	4/1·5.16	4.8·4.80 Matchbook · -7% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook4.8·4.80Betfair Exchange4.6·4.60 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50Smarkets4.5·4.50Coral7/2·4.50Virgin Bet10/3·4.33Bet36510/3·4.33 LiveScore Bet10/3·4.33Hollywood Bets10/3·4.33BetMGM10/3·4.33 BetTom10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33 William Hill10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33Betfair Sportsbook3/1·4.00Paddy Power3/1·4.00 Betfred3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 10 Bet3/1·4.00 Midnite3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00 7Bet11/4·3.75 BetWright11/4·3.75 Dragon Bet11/4·3.75 Boyle Sports11/4·3.75 Betano5/2·3.50 Bet Victor5/2·3.50
4	Galimix J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton · draw 14 · combo 20/190 (11%) 2yo · G · bClass dropOnly runner	4	9-07	—	—	—	26.0	6/1·7.09	6.8·6.80 Matchbook · -4% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook6.8·6.80Betfair Exchange6.6·6.60Smarkets6.6·6.60Betfred5/1·6.00 SmarketsSBK5/1·6.00 Star Sports5/1·6.00 Unibet5/1·6.00 William Hill9/2·5.50 Paddy Power9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.5010 Bet9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 Midnite9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Coral9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 7Bet4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00BetMGM7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 Bet Victor7/2·4.50
8	Arkenforce J: Ray Dawson · T: Michael Appleby · draw 3 · combo 1/11 (9%) 2yo · C · bOnly pairing	—	9-04	—	—	—	26.0	33/1·33.53	42·42.00 Matchbook · +25% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook42·42.00Betfair Exchange38·38.00Smarkets36·36.00SmarketsSBK30/1·31.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 Paddy Power28/1·29.00 BetTom28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00William Hill25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Midnite25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 Betfred25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00
11	What A Go I've Had J: Jason Watson · T: Michael Appleby · draw 9 · combo 3/15 (20%) 2yo · G · bOnly pairing	—	9-04	—	—	—	26.0	33/1·37.40	40·40.00 Matchbook · +7% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook40·40.00Smarkets38·38.00Betfair Exchange36·36.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Midnite28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 Bet36528/1·29.00Hollywood Bets28/1·29.00BetTom28/1·29.00 Paddy Power28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00William Hill28/1·29.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.007Bet25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00
1	Aethelstan Gold J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Harry Charlton · draw 6 · combo 14/89 (16%) 2yo · C · bClass dropOnly runner	3	9-07	—	—	—	25.0	13/8·2.58	2.16·2.16 Matchbook · -16% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook2.16·2.16Smarkets2.12·2.12Coral11/10·2.10 Ladbrokes11/10·2.10 LiveScore Bet11/10·2.10Virgin Bet11/10·2.10Betfair Exchange2.08·2.08 Star Sportsevn·2.00 UnibetEvens·2.00 Paddy Power1/1·2.00Hollywood Betsevn·2.00Midniteevn·2.00 Betfredevn·2.00 Bet365evn·2.00 Quinn BetEvens·2.00 BetMGMevn·2.00Betfair Sportsbook1/1·2.00Boyle Sportsevn·2.00 SmarketsSBKevn·2.00 William Hillevn·2.00 BetTom10/11·1.91 7Bet10/11·1.91 10 Bet10/11·1.91 Bet Victor10/11·1.91 Dragon Bet10/11·1.91 Spreadex10/11·1.91 SportingIndex10/11·1.91 BetWright10/11·1.91 Betano10/11·1.91
2	Charmed Boy J: David Probert · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 10 · combo 6/76 (8%) 2yo · C · ch	4	9-07	—	—	—	23.5	11/1·11.61	12.5·12.50 Matchbook · +8% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook12.5·12.50SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00 Betfair Exchange12·12.00Smarkets11.5·11.50Bet36517/2·9.50 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Coral8/1·9.00 SportingIndex8/1·9.00Virgin Bet8/1·9.00Midnite8/1·9.00 LiveScore Bet8/1·9.00 Spreadex8/1·9.00 Unibet8/1·9.00 Ladbrokes8/1·9.00 Paddy Power8/1·9.00 Star Sports8/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook8/1·9.00BetTom15/2·8.50 10 Bet15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet15/2·8.50Hollywood Bets15/2·8.50William Hill15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 BetWright7/1·8.00 Boyle Sports7/1·8.00 7Bet7/1·8.00 Dragon Bet7/1·8.00 Bet Victor6/1·7.00 Betano6/1·7.00
—	Sidewalking J: Edward Greatrex · T: Ian Williams · draw 4 · combo 2/32 (6%) 2yo · C · bOnly runner	—	9-04	—	—	—	21.0	40/1·38.69	40/1·41.00 Bet365 · +6% vs fair Compare 20 books ▾ Bet36540/1·41.00 Unibet33/1·34.00 Boyle Sports33/1·34.00 Paddy Power33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 Quinn Bet33/1·34.00 10 Bet33/1·34.00 Betfred33/1·34.00Betfair Sportsbook30/1·31.007Bet30/1·31.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00Hollywood Bets28/1·29.00Betfair Exchange26·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 BetWright22/1·23.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00Matchbook6.6·6.60
7	Time To Spare J: Harry Davies · T: Jonathan Portman · draw 2 · combo 1/8 (13%) 2yo · G · b	—	9-07	—	—	—	18.0	150/1·162.50	260·260.00 Matchbook · +60% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook260·260.00LiveScore Bet200/1·201.00Virgin Bet200/1·201.00Paddy Power200/1·201.00 Betfair Exchange190·190.00Smarkets180·180.00Midnite150/1·151.00 Betfred150/1·151.00 Boyle Sports150/1·151.00Betfair Sportsbook150/1·151.00Quinn Bet125/1·126.00 Star Sports125/1·126.00Hollywood Bets125/1·126.00BetTom125/1·126.00 William Hill125/1·126.00 10 Bet125/1·126.00 Unibet125/1·126.00 Bet365100/1·101.00 Coral100/1·101.00 7Bet100/1·101.00 BetWright100/1·101.00 BetMGM100/1·101.00 Dragon Bet100/1·101.00 Ladbrokes100/1·101.00 SmarketsSBK100/1·101.00 Bet Victor80/1·81.00 Betano80/1·81.00 SportingIndex80/1·81.00 Spreadex80/1·81.00
3	Desert Meeting J: Paddy Bradley · T: Charlie Fellowes · draw 7 · combo 6/80 (8%) 2yo · G · grOnly runner	—	9-07	—	—	—	15.0	33/1·37.40	65·65.00 Matchbook · +74% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook65·65.00Betfair Exchange50·50.00 SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00Smarkets40·40.00Midnite33/1·34.00 Bet36533/1·34.00 Star Sports28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 BetTom28/1·29.00Hollywood Bets28/1·29.00Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 10 Bet28/1·29.00 Paddy Power28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00Virgin Bet28/1·29.00Dragon Bet25/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00BetWright25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports22/1·23.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Betano18/1·19.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00
13	Kosima J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon · draw 13 · combo 20/157 (13%) 2yo · F · bClass drop	9	9-02	—	—	—	14.2	150/1·130.26	180·180.00 Smarkets · +38% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets180·180.00Matchbook170·170.00Betfair Exchange110·110.00 LiveScore Bet100/1·101.00 Unibet100/1·101.00 Betfred100/1·101.00 Coral100/1·101.00 10 Bet100/1·101.00 Star Sports100/1·101.00Hollywood Bets100/1·101.00Paddy Power100/1·101.00 William Hill100/1·101.00 Ladbrokes100/1·101.00Virgin Bet100/1·101.00Midnite100/1·101.00 Bet365100/1·101.00 BetTom100/1·101.00 Quinn Bet100/1·101.00Betfair Sportsbook90/1·91.00SmarketsSBK90/1·91.00 7Bet80/1·81.00 Boyle Sports80/1·81.00 SportingIndex80/1·81.00 Spreadex80/1·81.00 BetWright80/1·81.00 Dragon Bet80/1·81.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 Bet Victor66/1·67.00 Betano66/1·67.00
6	Tarn Hows J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Daniel & Claire Kubler · draw 8 2yo · G · chOnly runner	07	9-07	—	—	—	12.0	200/1·194.74	380·380.00 Matchbook · +95% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook380·380.00Betfair Exchange300·300.00 Bet365200/1·201.00 Star Sports200/1·201.00 10 Bet200/1·201.00 Coral200/1·201.00 Ladbrokes200/1·201.00 Midnite200/1·201.00 Paddy Power200/1·201.00 LiveScore Bet200/1·201.00Virgin Bet200/1·201.00Smarkets180·180.00William Hill150/1·151.00 Boyle Sports150/1·151.00 BetTom150/1·151.00 BetMGM150/1·151.00Betfair Sportsbook150/1·151.00Unibet150/1·151.00 Quinn Bet150/1·151.00Hollywood Bets125/1·126.00SmarketsSBK125/1·126.00 Betfred125/1·126.00 Bet Victor100/1·101.00 BetWright100/1·101.00 7Bet100/1·101.00 Dragon Bet100/1·101.00 Betano80/1·81.00 SportingIndex80/1·81.00 Spreadex80/1·81.00
10	Thai Boxer J: George Wood · T: Adrian Wintle · draw 12 2yo · C · b	7	9-04	—	—	—	9.5	250/1·259.23	430·430.00 Matchbook · +66% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook430·430.00Betfair Exchange360·360.00 LiveScore Bet200/1·201.00 Unibet200/1·201.00 William Hill200/1·201.00 Midnite200/1·201.00 Bet365200/1·201.00Virgin Bet200/1·201.00Coral200/1·201.00 Ladbrokes200/1·201.00 Quinn Bet200/1·201.00 Star Sports200/1·201.00Betfair Sportsbook200/1·201.00Paddy Power200/1·201.00 Betfred200/1·201.00Smarkets180·180.007Bet150/1·151.00 10 Bet150/1·151.00 BetTom150/1·151.00Hollywood Bets150/1·151.00BetMGM150/1·151.00 Boyle Sports150/1·151.00 BetWright125/1·126.00 Dragon Bet125/1·126.00 SmarketsSBK125/1·126.00 Bet Victor100/1·101.00 SportingIndex100/1·101.00 Spreadex100/1·101.00 Betano100/1·101.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 20–29 bookmakers per horse with the 29% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Seat Unique EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)?

The Seat Unique EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race) is off at 15:50 on 8 October 2026 at Bath (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 15:50 Bath?

1m, Class 4, Flat, 13 runners declared.

What is the going for the 15:50 Bath?

Going is reported as Good on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 15:50 Bath?

The AI top-rated runner is Grapple (score 47.7, best price 27.00). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 15:50 Bath?

The market favourite is Aethelstan Gold at a best price of 2.16. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Grapple.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org