14:20 Ayr

Menabrea Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)

6f · Flat · Class 5 · Heavy · 7 runners · £4,320 · Thursday, 8 October 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 7-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Sea Mirage

No. 2 · score 52.3 · +19.8 clear of next best · best 9/4·3.30

Drawn 1, inside the favoured low third at this course and trip.

Best value vs consensus

Coul Blue

34·34.00 Matchbook · +13% vs fair (consensus 30.17)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

v1.1-0.19 score

Muve On

5.30Matchbook

segment +25.5% · Flat · Heavy · Class 5

Each-way29.0/100 rating

Muve On

6.40Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Sea Mirage

Tom Eaves · Kevin Ryan · 2yo

Top-rated of 7

score 52.3 · +19.8 clear of next best (32.5)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
85very strong
36d since last run (fresh)
Form20% weight
61average
Last 6: 6-2-6-4-2-2
Ratings50% weight
49below average
OR 74 — highest combined rating in the field
Trainer20% weight
35below average
Kevin Ryan: 4/28 winners last 14d (14%)

MarketBest price 3.30 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 7.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
4Coul Blue
Prominent(1)
2Sea Mirage
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(1)
6Howard's Hobby
Unknown(4)
1Caturra Rock 3Alfa Blueburd 5Muve On 7Queen Bee For You

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Ayr 6f

full course data →

Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24).

Low (1–3)

IV 1.24

Mid (4–5)

IV 0.98

High (6–7)

IV 0.75

Today: Sea Mirage (draw 1) and Caturra Rock (draw 3) get the bias; Coul Blue (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 122 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	Sea MiragePick J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 1 · combo 7/126 (6%) 2yo · G · grpFT PClass drop	626422	9-07	74	—	—	52.3	9/4·3.19	3.3·3.30 Matchbook · +3% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook3.3·3.30Betfair Exchange3.25·3.25Smarkets3.25·3.25SmarketsSBK2/1·3.00Virgin Bet15/8·2.88SportingIndex15/8·2.88 Bet36515/8·2.88 LiveScore Bet15/8·2.88 Spreadex15/8·2.88 10 Bet15/8·2.88 Unibet15/8·2.88 Coral15/8·2.88 Midnite15/8·2.88 Ladbrokes15/8·2.87 7Bet7/4·2.75 Dragon Bet7/4·2.75Hollywood Bets7/4·2.75BetMGM7/4·2.75 BetTom7/4·2.75 Paddy Power7/4·2.75 Quinn Bet7/4·2.75 BetWright7/4·2.75 Betfred7/4·2.75 Star Sports7/4·2.75 William Hill7/4·2.75 Betano13/8·2.63 Bet Victor13/8·2.63 Boyle Sports13/8·2.63Betfair Sportsbook13/8·2.63
4	Coul Blue J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 7 · combo 14/156 (9%) 2yo · G · grbFT BOnly runner	4630	9-04	56	—	—	32.5	28/1·30.17	34·34.00 Matchbook · +13% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook34·34.00Smarkets32·32.00Betfair Exchange30·30.00 Spreadex28/1·29.00 Quinn Bet28/1·29.00 SportingIndex28/1·29.00 William Hill28/1·29.00 Betfred28/1·29.00 Unibet28/1·29.00 Coral28/1·29.00 Ladbrokes28/1·29.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 Dragon Bet25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 10 Bet25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00Betfair Sportsbook25/1·26.00Paddy Power25/1·26.00 BetWright25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00Midnite25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 7Bet25/1·26.00 BetMGM25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00Bet Victor22/1·23.00 Betano22/1·23.00
5	Muve Onv1.1 J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 6 · combo 42/342 (12%) 2yo · G · ch	53	9-04	—	—	—	29.0	11/2·6.38	6.4·6.40 Betfair Exchange Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange6.4·6.40Matchbook6.4·6.40Smarkets6.2·6.20William Hill9/2·5.50 BetWright9/2·5.50 Star Sports9/2·5.50 Quinn Bet9/2·5.50 Unibet9/2·5.50Virgin Bet9/2·5.5010 Bet9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 7Bet9/2·5.50 BetTom9/2·5.50 Dragon Bet9/2·5.50Hollywood Bets9/2·5.50Midnite9/2·5.50 Boyle Sports9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 LiveScore Bet9/2·5.50 Paddy Power9/2·5.50 BetMGM9/2·5.50 Betfred4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00Betfair Sportsbook4/1·5.00
1	Caturra Rock J: Hector Crouch · T: Ed Dunlop · draw 3 · combo 0/9 (0%) 2yo · C · bClass drop	2	9-07	—	—	—	28.6	7/4·2.76	2.74·2.74 Betfair Exchange Compare 29 books ▾ Betfair Exchange2.74·2.74Smarkets2.72·2.72Matchbook2.66·2.66SmarketsSBK13/8·2.62 Unibet6/4·2.50 Ladbrokes6/4·2.50 Bet3656/4·2.50 Coral6/4·2.50 Quinn Bet11/8·2.38 SportingIndex11/8·2.38 Midnite11/8·2.38 Spreadex11/8·2.38 Paddy Power11/8·2.38 10 Bet11/8·2.38 BetTom11/8·2.38 William Hill11/8·2.38Hollywood Bets69/50·2.38Virgin Bet11/8·2.38Betfair Sportsbook11/8·2.38LiveScore Bet11/8·2.38 Betfred11/8·2.38 Star Sports11/8·2.38 BetWright11/8·2.37 BetMGM5/4·2.25 7Bet5/4·2.25 Boyle Sports5/4·2.25 Dragon Bet5/4·2.25 Betano6/5·2.20 Bet Victor6/5·2.20
7	Queen Bee For You J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tony Culhane & Stella Barclay · draw 5 2yo · F · bOnly pairing	—	8-13	—	—	—	27.5	28/1·30.17	30·30.00 Matchbook Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook30·30.00Betfair Exchange30·30.00 William Hill28/1·29.00Smarkets29·29.00Betfred25/1·26.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 Bet36525/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 SmarketsSBK25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00Coral25/1·26.00 Ladbrokes25/1·26.00 Paddy Power22/1·23.00 10 Bet22/1·23.00 Star Sports22/1·23.00 BetTom22/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.007Bet20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 Bet Victor18/1·19.00 Betano18/1·19.00
3	Alfa Blueburd J: Jason Hart · T: Ivan Furtado · draw 4 · combo 5/52 (10%) 2yo · G · bOnly runner	—	9-04	—	—	—	21.5	10/1·11.02	10/1·11.00 10 Bet Compare 29 books ▾ 10 Bet10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 BetTom10/1·11.00 Midnite9/1·10.00Hollywood Bets9/1·10.00Matchbook9.6·9.60Ladbrokes17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 Paddy Power17/2·9.50 BetWright17/2·9.50Virgin Bet17/2·9.50Bet36517/2·9.50Betfair Sportsbook17/2·9.50LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50 Star Sports17/2·9.50Smarkets9.2·9.20Betano8/1·9.00 Bet Victor8/1·9.00 BetMGM8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 Betfair Exchange9·9.00 William Hill15/2·8.50 Dragon Bet15/2·8.50 SmarketsSBK15/2·8.50 7Bet7/1·8.00 SportingIndex6/1·7.00 Spreadex6/1·7.00
6	Howard's Hobby J: Sean Kirrane · T: Tim Easterby · draw 2 · combo 12/143 (8%) 2yo · F · b	0	9-02	—	—	—	19.0	100/1·92.82	85·85.00 Matchbook · -8% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook85·85.00Quinn Bet80/1·81.00 Star Sports80/1·81.00 Paddy Power80/1·81.00Hollywood Bets80/1·81.00Betfair Sportsbook80/1·81.00Ladbrokes80/1·81.00 Betfred80/1·81.00 Boyle Sports80/1·81.00 Unibet80/1·81.00 Coral80/1·81.00 William Hill80/1·81.00 LiveScore Bet80/1·81.00Virgin Bet80/1·81.00Smarkets80·80.007Bet70/1·71.00 Betfair Exchange70·70.00 Bet36566/1·67.00 Midnite66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Betano66/1·67.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 10 Bet66/1·67.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 Bet Victor66/1·67.00 Dragon Bet60/1·61.00 BetWright60/1·61.00 SmarketsSBK45/1·46.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 29 bookmakers per horse with the 16% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Menabrea Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)?

The Menabrea Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race) is off at 14:20 on 8 October 2026 at Ayr (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:20 Ayr?

6f, Class 5, Flat, 7 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:20 Ayr?

Going is reported as Heavy on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:20 Ayr?

The AI top-rated runner is Sea Mirage (score 52.3, best price 3.30). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:20 Ayr?

The market favourite is Caturra Rock at a best price of 2.74. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Sea Mirage.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org