Who won the 16:28 Newcastle (AW) on 12 October 2026?
Tropbien (GB) won the 16:28 Newcastle (AW) at SP 2.50. Ridden by Saffie Osborne. Trained by John & Thady Gosden.
16:28 Newcastle (AW)
Download The At The Races App Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
1m2f · Flat · Class 3 · Standard · 7 runners · £6,480 · Monday, 12 October 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 6/4·2.50Race report
- 1stTropbien (GB)AI top pick · 58.0Saffie Osborne·John & Thady Gosden6/4·2.50SP
- 2ndIndhaar (GB)Harry Davies·William Haggas·beaten 1 length11/8F·2.38SP
- 3rdElla Beach (FR)Daniel Tudhope·David O'Meara·beaten 9 lengths5/1·6.00SP
Race time
2m 14.38s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Tropbien (GB))
“Raced freely early - prompt pursuit of the pace-setter - went to the front 3f out and gained two lengths by 2f out - stayed on up the final furlong - held rivals at bay to win”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way24.5/100 rating
Indhaar
11.00Matchbook
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Why the model rates this top
Tropbien
Saffie Osborne · John & Thady Gosden · 3yo
Top-rated of 7
score 58.0 · +22.0 clear of next best (36.0)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Trainer20% weight73strongJohn & Thady Gosden: 10/35 winners last 14d (29%)
- Freshness10% weight65strong105d since last run (rusty)
- Form20% weight55averageLast 6: 9-4-2
- Ratings50% weight52averageOR 78 — highest combined rating in the field
MarketBest price 2.72 (Smarkets) · market favourite.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 1m2f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–3)
IV 0.94
Mid (4–5)
IV 1.07
High (6–7)
IV 1.01
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 165 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | J: Saffie Osborne · T: John & Thady Gosden · draw 2 3yo · C · b | 942 | 78 | 58.0 | 6/4·2.50 SP |
| 2 | 3 | J: Harry Davies · T: William Haggas · draw 4 3yo · G · b | 3 | — | 24.5 | 11/8F·2.38 SP |
| 3 | 2 | J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 7 3yo · F · b | 1 | — | 36.0 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 4 | 5 | J: P. J. McDonald · T: Andrew Balding · draw 1 3yo · G · b | 05 | — | 20.5 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 5 | 4 | J: Oliver Stammers · T: Grant Tuer · draw 5 3yo · G · b | 8 | — | 12.0 | 250/1·251.00 SP |
| 6 | 7 | J: William Pyle · T: Tracy Waggott · draw 6 3yo · F · ch | 4 | — | 17.5 | 500/1·501.00 SP |
| RR | 1 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Ben Haslam · draw 3 4yo · G · b | — | — | 24.0 | 150/1·151.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:28 Newcastle (AW)?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Tropbien, won the race (AI score 58.0).
What were the placings in the 16:28 Newcastle (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Tropbien (GB) (2.50), 2. Indhaar (GB) (2.38), 3. Ella Beach (FR) (6.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:28 Newcastle (AW)?
The winning time was 2m 14.38s.
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