14:00 Roscommon

Ireland

Guinness Handicap

7½f · Flat · Soft · 14 runners · €9,000 · Monday, 12 October 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 4th

1st
Contrary To Law (IRE)
Ben Coen·J. P. Murtagh
7/2F·4.50
SP
2nd
La La Lucrative (IRE)
Robbie Colgan·Matthew J Smith·beaten 2.25 lengths
4/1·5.00
SP
3rd
Mercurial (IRE)
Jimmy Dalton·John J Nallen·beaten 3 lengths
5/1·6.00
SP

Race time

1m 35.99s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Contrary To Law (IRE))

“Raced in the pack - 7th at halfway - moved up to 5th and angled left 2f out - 2nd 1f out and soon upsides - edged ahead 100 yards out and stayed on strongly to win”

AI top-rated Minaun View (score 52.0) finished 4th.

Settled · 1pt level stake = 12.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way45.4/100 rating

La La Lucrative

6.80Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Nakamura

Nakamura is our selection at Roscommon, and he is only a point behind the top-rated Breaking Dawn on our figures, so the rating gap is no barrier. His progressive profile and a fitness edge are what tip it for us, which matters over a testing eight furlongs on soft ground in a big field of 15. Breaking Dawn is the chief danger as the narrowly higher-rated runner, with Contrary To Law and Gypsy Queen also sure to be in the mix, though this is a competitive contest and our confidence is low. Nakamura gets the vote.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Minaun View

Patrick McGettigan(5) · Adrian McGuinness · 4yo

Top-rated of 16

score 52.0 · +2.2 clear of next best (49.8)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
14d since last run (race-fit window)
Form20% weight
54average
Last 6: 7-1-5-5-6-1
Ratings50% weight
49below average
OR 73
Trainer20% weight
35below average
Adrian McGuinness: 5/36 winners last 14d (14%)

MarketBest price 19.00 (Matchbook) · 5th in the market of 16.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Roscommon 7½f

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.26).

Low (1–6)

IV 1.26

Mid (7–11)

IV 1.09

High (12–16)

IV 0.64

Today: Minaun View (draw 1) and Save The Sixes (draw 4) get the bias; Solomon (draw 14) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 66 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	9	Contrary To Law J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh · draw 8 3yo · C · chh	671466	9-09	74	—	—	45.3	7/2F·4.50 SP
2	11	La La Lucrative J: Robbie Colgan · T: Matthew J Smith · draw 2 5yo · G · b	181432	9-05	67	—	—	45.4	4/1·5.00 SP
3	10	Mercurial J: Jimmy Dalton(7) · T: John J Nallen · draw 6 7yo · G · bp	42836	9-07	69	—	—	40.6	5/1·6.00 SP
4	4	Minaun View J: Patrick McGettigan(5) · T: Adrian McGuinness · draw 1 4yo · F · chtp	715561	9-11	73	—	—	52.0	12/1·13.00 SP
5	2	She's Too Kool J: Adam Browne-Souza(7) · T: Ms Claire O'Connell · draw 10 3yo · F · b	504314	10-00	79	—	—	47.5	10/1·11.00 SP
6	1	Gypsy Queen J: W. J. Lee · T: W. McCreery · draw 9 4yo · F · btFT T	5180	10-00	76	—	—	40.0	18/1·19.00 SP
7	8	Java Wood J: Reese Holohan(5) · T: K Smith · draw 11 6yo · G · g	307148	9-10	72	—	—	41.5	18/1·19.00 SP
8	13	Solomon J: Nicola Burns(5) · T: P Sweeney · draw 14 5yo · G · bh	09760	9-03	65	—	—	48.5	125/1·126.00 SP
9	6	Save The Sixes J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs J. Harrington · draw 4 3yo · F · b	814	9-11	76	—	—	49.8	7/1·8.00 SP
10	12	Selective Power J: James Ryan · T: Thomas Coyle · draw 3 7yo · G · chp	494451	9-03	65	—	—	47.9	7/1·8.00 SP
11	7	Earls J: Jack Kearney(3) · T: Gavin Cromwell · draw 7 9yo · G · btb	223709	9-10	72	—	—	43.4	11/1·12.00 SP
12	15	Girl Bear J: Luke McAteer · T: Jack Foley · draw 15 3yo · F · b	793789	8-12	63	—	—	32.9	40/1·41.00 SP
13	5	Nakamura J: Seamie Heffernan · T: J. P. Murtagh · draw 12 3yo · G · b	782070	9-11	76	—	—	42.1	16/1·17.00 SP
14	3	Breaking Dawn J: Colin Keane · T: M D O'Callaghan · draw 16 3yo · G · bp	44100	9-12	77	—	—	42.0	28/1·29.00 SP
—	—	Tyraxes J: · T: Denis Gerard Hogan · draw 5 4yo · G · bt	045977	8-13	61	—	—	33.9	—
—	—	Final Boss J: Leigh Roche · T: Matthew J Smith · draw 13 3yo · G · b	50607	8-12	63	—	—	30.2	—

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 14:00 Roscommon on 12 October 2026?

Contrary To Law (IRE) won the 14:00 Roscommon at SP 4.50. Ridden by Ben Coen. Trained by J. P. Murtagh.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:00 Roscommon?

No — the AI top pick (Minaun View) finished 4.

What were the placings in the 14:00 Roscommon?

Top finishers: 1. Contrary To Law (IRE) (4.50), 2. La La Lucrative (IRE) (5.00), 3. Mercurial (IRE) (6.00).

What was the winning time for the 14:00 Roscommon?

The winning time was 1m 35.99s.

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