Who won the 15:39 Nottingham on 14 October 2026?
Green Falcon (GB) won the 15:39 Nottingham at SP 3.50. Ridden by Saffie Osborne. Trained by David Menuisier.
15:39 Nottingham
Colwick Cup Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
2m · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Soft · 10 runners · £9,160 · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 2ndRace report
- 1stGreen Falcon (GB)Saffie Osborne·David Menuisier5/2J·3.50SP
- 2ndBelievitanducan (IRE)AI top pick · 59.0William Buick·Alan King·beaten 2.75 lengths5/2J·3.50SP
- 3rdDunkeld Dreamer (IRE)Clifford Lee·K. R. Burke·beaten 8 lengths12/1·13.00SP
Race time
3m 35.78s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Green Falcon (GB))
“Raced just behind the pacesetter - went to the front 3f out - pushed along 2f out - veered sharply right over 1f out - responded well inside the final furlong - held on to win”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Believitanducan
Believitanducan is our selection for this Nottingham Class 4 over two miles, and the case rests on a progressive profile that makes him the more interesting option than Neptunes Staircase, who is only a pound better on our figures at 84 to his 83. That is a narrow gap, and Believitanducan's upward trajectory should be enough to bridge it on good to soft ground. Neptunes Staircase is the main danger, with Call My Bluff just a pound further back and Rock N Roll Pinkie also in the mix, so this is a tight contest in which little separates the principals. Believitanducan gets the nod on his improvement, though with only a low level of confidence.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Believitanducan
William Buick · Alan King · 5yo
Top-rated of 11
score 59.0 · +3.3 clear of next best (55.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Form20% weight85very strongLast 6: 2-1-1-1-3
- Freshness10% weight65strong65d since last run (rusty)
- Ratings50% weight58averageOR 87 — highest combined rating in the field
- Trainer20% weight33weakAlan King: 2/16 winners last 14d (13%)
MarketBest price 4.00 (LiveScore Bet) · market favourite.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Nottingham 2m
full course data →Strong: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.26).
Low (1–4)
IV 0.66
Mid (5–8)
IV 1.14
High (9–11)
IV 1.26
Today: Green Falcon (draw 11) and Neptunes Staircase (draw 10) get the bias; Believitanducan (draw 2) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 41 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | J: Saffie Osborne · T: David Menuisier · draw 11 3yo · G · ch | 25043 | 72 | 50.2 | 5/2J·3.50 SP |
| 2 | 1 | J: William Buick · T: Alan King · draw 2 5yo · G · b | 21113 | 87 | 59.0 | 5/2J·3.50 SP |
| 3 | 9 | J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke · draw 7 3yo · F · bp | 140372 | 79 | 52.1 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 4 | 2 | J: Rob Hornby · T: Jonathan Portman · draw 3 4yo · F · b | 432133 | 82 | 55.7 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 5 | 5 | J: G. F. Carroll · T: G. M. Lyons · draw 10 6yo · G · bt | 71905 | 75 | 43.6 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 6 | 4 | J: Hector Crouch · T: Ivan Furtado · draw 1 6yo · M · ch | 455975 | 76 | 45.4 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 7 | 7 | J: Tom Marquand · T: Ewan Whillans · draw 6 6yo · G · btp | 18083 | 73 | 48.0 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 8 | 3 | J: Callum Shepherd · T: Dominic Ffrench Davis · draw 9 9yo · G · bp | 91050 | 80 | 39.5 | 80/1·81.00 SP |
| 9 | 10 | J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 5 7yo · G · chtp | 611143 | 70 | 52.2 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 10 | 8 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 4 6yo · G · bp | 073632 | 71 | 50.2 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas · draw 8 4yo · C · bt | 18873 | 75 | 49.3 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:39 Nottingham?
No — the AI top pick (Believitanducan) finished 2.
What were the placings in the 15:39 Nottingham?
Top finishers: 1. Green Falcon (GB) (3.50), 2. Believitanducan (IRE) (3.50), 3. Dunkeld Dreamer (IRE) (13.00).
What was the winning time for the 15:39 Nottingham?
The winning time was 3m 35.78s.
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