Updated
A value bet is one where the odds on offer are bigger than the horse's true chance of winning. If a horse should be 2/1 but you can back it at 3/1, that's value — and backing value consistently is the only thing that makes betting profitable over time. You will still lose plenty of individual bets; value is about the price being wrong in your favour, not the horse winning. Strike rate never proves an edge — the price you took does.
Compare your estimate of the horse's true chance to the chance implied by the odds (1 ÷ decimal odds). If you think the horse is more likely to win than the price implies, it's value. The hard part is estimating the true chance accurately and without bias — which is exactly what a rating model is for.
A bettor who backs 10/1 shots that should be 6/1 makes money even winning only 1 in 8; a bettor backing odds-on favourites that should be even shorter loses money even when they win often. Long-term profit comes from the gap between price and true chance, not from how many winners you pick.
CLV measures whether the price you took beat the Starting Price. Consistently beating the SP is the strongest evidence you're finding genuine value, because the closing market is the sharpest estimate of a horse's true chance. Racing Alpha tracks CLV on every selection.
Its model rates every runner 0-100 from ratings, recent form, trainer 14-day form and freshness, then compares that assessment to the market price. When the model rates a horse higher than its price implies, that's flagged as value — and every advised price is logged publicly so the CLV can be checked.
Racing Alpha is for information and entertainment for adults aged 18 and over. We do not accept bets. Past performance does not predict future results. BeGambleAware.org