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Closing Line Value (CLV) is the percentage difference between the price you backed a horse at and its starting price (SP). The formula is CLV = (advised price ÷ SP) − 1. Positive CLV means the market shortened after you bet — you got a better price than the close. Sustained positive CLV is the single strongest evidence a tipster has a real edge, because the closing market price absorbs all available information by the off.
CLV = (advised price ÷ SP) − 1, expressed as a percentage. Example: advised at 5.00, SP of 4.00 → 5.00/4.00 − 1 = +25% CLV. The market shortened the horse from 5.00 to 4.00 between your bet and the off, so you beat the close by 25%.
Strike rate and ROI can fluke over small samples — a couple of long-odds winners can flatter a poor tipster, or a couple of unlucky losses can sink a sharp one. CLV is harder to fluke because the closing market price reflects every other punter's information. Consistently beating it across hundreds of picks is the textbook signal of edge.
In a deep market like UK racing, +3% to +6% mean CLV over a meaningful sample (100+ picks) is genuinely strong. +10%+ is exceptional. Anything negative — even by a small margin — means you're effectively paying a tax to the bookmaker each bet, regardless of strike rate.
Yes — every settled pick on Racing Alpha has its CLV calculated and published at /clv. The page shows mean CLV per model (headline tip, v1.0, v1.1, Furlong), beat-the-close hit rate, and a full ledger of every advised price vs SP.
Yes — CLV applies to every pick, win or lose. Whether a horse won has no bearing on whether your advised price beat the SP. That's why CLV is robust: it isolates the quality of your selection process from the noise of any individual race outcome.
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