When should you take the price?
The eternal punter question — back it now, or wait for a bigger price? Here is what actually happened to 308,872 GB & Irish runners between 2023-06-01 and 2026-05-17: Betfair morning price vs the starting price, by price band.
The honest summary: fancied horses firm, outsiders drift. Below ~3.0 the morning price tends to hold or shorten — waiting risks losing the price. From ~4.0 upwards the median runner drifted, and the longer the price, the harder it drifted. But look at the ranges before treating that as a rule — the spread dwarfs the median, and the horses that shorten are often exactly the ones you most wanted the early price about.
Market movers
UK & IRE · todayNo qualifying moves yet — the market needs an hour or so of price action before steamers and drifters surface here.
Look up your price
- Median move by the off
- +3.8%
- Typical range (p25–p75)
- -13.2% to +25.9%
- Sample
- 25,028
Flat — full table
| Morning price | Shortened | Drifted | Median move | p25–p75 | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 2.0 | 53.7% | 34.9% | -3% | -10.1% … +7% | 2,136 |
| 2.0-3.0 | 46.8% | 45.7% | -0.3% | -12.2% … +17% | 6,760 |
| 3.0-4.0 | 43% | 50.6% | +2.4% | -12.5% … +23.1% | 10,212 |
| 4.0-6.0 | 41.3% | 52.7% | +3.8% | -13.2% … +25.9% | 25,028 |
| 6.0-9.0 | 41.8% | 53.1% | +4.5% | -15% … +32% | 33,973 |
| 9.0-14 | 38.7% | 57.1% | +9% | -14.6% … +41.8% | 39,348 |
| 14-21 | 35.3% | 61% | +14.6% | -13.4% … +56.7% | 30,560 |
| 21-35 | 31.1% | 65.8% | +23.6% | -9.9% … +74.4% | 23,908 |
| 35+ | 28.5% | 69.1% | +36.8% | -7.6% … +114.2% | 23,319 |
Jumps — full table
| Morning price | Shortened | Drifted | Median move | p25–p75 | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 2.0 | 47.4% | 40.1% | -1.2% | -8.4% … +9.1% | 2,352 |
| 2.0-3.0 | 43.4% | 49.3% | +1.7% | -11.6% … +20% | 5,350 |
| 3.0-4.0 | 41.4% | 52.3% | +3.4% | -12.6% … +24.7% | 7,103 |
| 4.0-6.0 | 41.1% | 53.2% | +4.3% | -13.2% … +28.3% | 15,165 |
| 6.0-9.0 | 41.1% | 54.1% | +5.5% | -15.3% … +35.2% | 18,872 |
| 9.0-14 | 39.5% | 56.6% | +8.5% | -15.6% … +42.4% | 20,519 |
| 14-21 | 38.1% | 58.6% | +12.3% | -15.6% … +55% | 15,665 |
| 21-35 | 35.7% | 61.4% | +17.8% | -15.4% … +72.1% | 12,629 |
| 35+ | 31.4% | 66.4% | +35.2% | -13% … +124.1% | 15,973 |
How to read this honestly
A base rate is not a timing edge. These numbers describe what prices did on average; they do not know anything about your horse. The asymmetry matters more than the average: if you wait on a 6.0 chance and it drifts to 6.6, you gained 10%; if it firms to 4.5 because the yard fancies it, you lost the best part of the price on exactly the bet you most wanted.
Measure: BSP ÷ morning WAP − 1 (positive = price lengthened by the off). GB+IRE, Betfair win market, morning volume ≥ £20 matched; morning WAP is a Betfair exchange measure, not a bookmaker board — bookmaker early prices behave differently (and best-odds-guaranteed changes the maths of taking them). Thin morning markets under £20 matched are excluded as noise.
Want the price you took checked against the market consensus? Every priced racecard here shows a fair-price column, and our own tips are audited against the close on the CLV ledger.
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