Who won the 15:30 Newcastle (AW) on 19 May 2026?
Big Cigar (IRE) won the 15:30 Newcastle (AW) at SP 3.00. Ridden by Oisin Orr. Trained by Richard & Peter Fahey.
15:30 Newcastle (AW)
Sunday Lunch At The Border Minstrel Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)
6f · Flat · Class 4 · Standard · 7 runners · £5,400 · Tuesday, 19 May 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 4thRace report
- 1stBig Cigar (IRE)Oisin Orr·Richard & Peter Fahey2/1F·3.00SP
- 2ndDorigo (IRE)Kevin Stott·Kevin Ryan·beaten 1 length9/1·10.00SP
- 3rdCapilano (IRE)Connor Beasley·Michael Dods·beaten .5 lengths7/1·8.00SP
Race time
1m 13.36s+2.66s vs std
Slightly slow — minor pace variance, nothing to read into.
In-running (Big Cigar (IRE))
“Prominent - led 1f out - soon ridden and edged left - ran on”
AI top-rated Caeruleus (score 26.5) finished 4th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 12.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Martial Order
Lehbab Prince is a likely type, as is MARTIAL ORDER, whose yard is 2-3 with 2yos on the AW this spring.
Forecast 3/1 Real Trouble, Martial Order, 7/2 Lehbab Prince, 6/1 Big Cigar, 8/1 Dorigo, 10/1 Capilano, 14/1 Caeruleus
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Caeruleus
Paul Mulrennan · John Butler · 2yo
Top-rated of 7
score 26.5 · +4.0 clear of next best (22.5)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Trainer20% weight58averageJohn Butler: 3/13 winners last 14d (23%)
- Form20% weight50averageLast 6: first run
- Freshness10% weight50averageno recent-run data
- Ratings50% weight0weakno Racing Post ratings on file
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Newcastle (AW) 6f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–3)
IV 1.02
Mid (4–5)
IV 0.88
High (6–7)
IV 1.09
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 571 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 6 2yo · C · b | — | — | 22.5 | 2/1F·3.00 SP |
| 2 | 4 | J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 3 2yo · C · b | — | — | 21.0 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 3 | 3 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 2 2yo · G · b | — | — | 16.5 | 7/1·8.00 SP |
| 4 | 2 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: John Butler · draw 4 2yo · C · b | — | — | 26.5 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 5 | 7 | J: Hollie Doyle · T: Archie Watson · draw 1 2yo · G · b | — | — | 21.0 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 6 | 6 | 2yo · C · b | — | — | 21.5 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 7 | 5 | J: P J McDonald · T: Andrew Balding · draw 5 2yo · C · b | — | — | 22.0 | 100/30·4.33 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:30 Newcastle (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Caeruleus) finished 4.
What were the placings in the 15:30 Newcastle (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Big Cigar (IRE) (3.00), 2. Dorigo (IRE) (10.00), 3. Capilano (IRE) (8.00).
What was the winning time for the 15:30 Newcastle (AW)?
The winning time was 1m 13.36s, 2.66s slower than standard.
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