Who won the 15:40 Ascot on 18 June 2026?
Earth Shot (IRE) won the 15:40 Ascot at SP 5.00. Ridden by James Doyle. Trained by William Haggas.
15:40 Ascot
Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies)
1m4f · Flat · Class 1 · Good To Firm · 12 runners · £141,775 · Thursday, 18 June 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 4/1·5.00Race report
- 1stEarth Shot (IRE)AI top pick · 71.4James Doyle·William Haggas4/1·5.00SP
- 2ndJohanna Walsh (IRE)Dylan Browne McMonagle·Joseph Patrick O'Brien·beaten 0.2 lengths9/1·10.00SP
- 3rdGilded Prize (GB)Oisin Murphy·F-H Graffard·beaten 1 length5/1·6.00SP
Race time
2m 30.18s+0.48s vs std
On standard — typical pace for the course/distance.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Legacy Link
Legacy Link sets a clear standard here on her second-placed effort at the highest level last time out, and the step back up to twelve furlongs on good-to-firm ground plays to her strengths as a filly who remains with plenty of room for improvement over this distance. The way she travelled through that race before meeting an exceptional winner suggests she is operating well within herself, and John and Thady Gosden will be confident Colin Keane can get the best from her. Gilded Prize is the most significant danger, with that extra yardage likely to suit having been found out for pace over a shorter trip last time, while Johanna Walsh and Earth Shot are progressive types capable of making the frame. **Legacy Link** is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Earth Shot
James Doyle · William Haggas · 3yo
Top-rated of 12
score 71.4 · +2.1 clear of next best (69.3)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong26d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight85very strongLast 6: 2-1-2
- Ratings50% weight67strongOR 100
- Trainer20% weight55averageWilliam Haggas: 9/41 winners last 14d (22%)
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ascot 1m4f
full course data →Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.18).
Low (1–4)
IV 0.75
Mid (5–8)
IV 1.18
High (9–12)
IV 1.11
Today: Earth Shot (draw 6) and Johanna Walsh (draw 7) get the bias; Legacy Link (draw 1) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 78 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | J: James Doyle · T: William Haggas · draw 6 3yo · F · b | 212 | 100 | 71.4 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 2 | 7 | J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 7 3yo · F · bt | 331 | 92 | 62.7 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 3 | 5 | J: Oisin Murphy · T: F-H Graffard · draw 3 3yo · F · b | 1115 | 111 | 68.4 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 4 | 1 | J: Robert Havlin · T: John & Thady Gosden · draw 2 3yo · F · ch | 2115 | 90 | 63.5 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien · draw 8 3yo · F · bbFT B | 43656 | 102 | 60.4 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 6 | 12 | J: Christophe Soumillon · T: C & Y Lerner · draw 4 3yo · F · bht | 132 | 102 | 59.1 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 7 | 9 | J: Colin Keane · T: John & Thady Gosden · draw 1 3yo · F · b | 31412 | 111 | 69.3 | 13/8F·2.62 SP |
| 8 | 11 | J: Richard Kingscote · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 11 3yo · F · chp | 23121 | 82 | 59.3 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 9 | 3 | 3yo · F · bh | 1 | — | 32.5 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 10 | 6 | J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 5 3yo · F · bbFT B | 14 | 86 | 57.3 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 11 | 10 | J: David Egan · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy · draw 9 3yo · F · b | 26 | — | 19.4 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| UR | 8 | J: Hector Crouch · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 12 3yo · F · ch | 313 | 92 | 61.3 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:40 Ascot?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Earth Shot, won the race (AI score 71.4).
What were the placings in the 15:40 Ascot?
Top finishers: 1. Earth Shot (IRE) (5.00), 2. Johanna Walsh (IRE) (10.00), 3. Gilded Prize (GB) (6.00).
What was the winning time for the 15:40 Ascot?
The winning time was 2m 30.18s, on standard time.
Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org