Who won the 16:53 Naas on 4 July 2026?
Rodeo Blues (IRE) won the 16:53 Naas at SP 3.75. Ridden by Dylan Browne McMonagle. Trained by Joseph Patrick O'Brien.
16:53 Naas
IrelandCare At Home Handicap (0-60)
1m3f · Flat · Good · 15 runners · €5,900 · Saturday, 4 July 2026
Result
AI top pick was a non-runnerRace report
- 1stRodeo Blues (IRE)Dylan Browne McMonagle·Joseph Patrick O'Brien11/4J·3.75SP
- 2ndMillhone (IRE)Rory Mulligan·Charles Weld·beaten .5 lengths16/1·17.00SP
- 3rdPoint Cartwright (IRE)Ronan Whelan·Adrian McGuinness·beaten .5 lengths11/4J·3.75SP
Race time
2m 20.16s+1.96s vs std
Slightly slow — minor pace variance, nothing to read into.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.75 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way43.1/100 rating
Connecteo
7.50William Hill
Place portion settles at 2.63 · 1/4 odds · 4 places
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Chapel Island
CHAPEL ISLAND, carrying the top weight, remains the pick on figures, with the sense that there's more still to come from him. Rodeo Blues, bidding to follow up a recent success despite a 12lb rise in the weights, and Point Cartwright, turned over only by a well-backed rival last time in form that has since worked out well, look the most obvious dangers, while Captain Con is also open to more improvement at bigger odds. It's a big, competitive field, but CHAPEL ISLAND gets the vote at medium confidence.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Private Larry
Leigh Roche · Alan McIntyre · 3yo
Top-rated of 19
score 50.9 · +7.8 clear of next best (43.1)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Trainer20% weight100small sample (n=1)Alan McIntyre: 1/1 winners last 14d (100%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
- Freshness10% weight70strong1d since last run (quick turnaround)
- Ratings50% weight35weakOR 52
- Form20% weight33weakLast 6: 0-0-0-8-8-1
MarketBest price 17.00 (Bet365) · 9th in the market of 19.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Naas 1m3f
full course data →Sample too small to call at this course and trip.
Low (1–7)
IV 0.63
Mid (8–13)
IV 1.16
High (14–19)
IV 1.28
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 37 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | J: Dylan Browne McMonagle · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien · draw 15 3yo · F · b/br | 090461 | 59 | 42.7 | 11/4J·3.75 SP |
| 2 | 10 | J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: Charles Weld · draw 13 3yo · F · chp | 00079 | 51 | 38.2 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 3 | 6 | J: Ronan Whelan · T: Adrian McGuinness · draw 1 3yo · G · b | 90952 | 54 | 38.6 | 11/4J·3.75 SP |
| 4 | 1 | 3yo · C · brt | 08785 | 60 | 38.9 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
| 5 | 14 | J: Neve Bennett(7) · T: Jarlath P Fahey · draw 12 3yo · G · b/br | 88003 | 42 | 26.9 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 6 | 15 | J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy(7) · T: Brendan W Duke · draw 18 3yo · G · b | 00506 | 42 | 23.5 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 7 | 2 | 3yo · G · cht | 00824 | 60 | 43.1 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 8 | 4 | J: Luke McAteer · T: Brendan W Duke · draw 17 3yo · G · bhFT H | 75009 | 59 | 31.1 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 9 | 11 | J: Shane Foley · T: Patrick Magee · draw 5 3yo · F · btFT T | 00606 | 51 | 38.1 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 10 | 12 | J: Robert Whearty · T: Paul W Flynn · draw 16 3yo · F · chtpFT TP | 0967 | 50 | 33.3 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 11 | 5 | J: Adam Caffrey · T: Noel Meade · draw 8 3yo · G · b | 00067 | 56 | 32.2 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 12 | 13 | J: Jimmy Dalton(7) · T: S M Duffy · draw 11 3yo · F · bvFT V | 70006 | 47 | 38.2 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 13 | 17 | J: Gavin Ryan · T: W R Crawford · draw 10 3yo · F · chhtFT HT | 00336 | 51 | 33.9 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 14 | 8 | J: Declan McDonogh · T: Michael Mulvany · draw 4 3yo · G · ch | 40484 | 52 | 37.3 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 15 | 7 | J: Sadhbh Tormey(7) · T: T G McCourt · draw 6 3yo · F · b | 99005 | 52 | 29.6 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 16 | 16 | J: Alan Persse(5) · T: M A Cahill · draw 7 3yo · F · bb | 99600 | 41 | 34.7 | 66/1·67.00 SP |
| — | — | J: · T: Thomas Dowling · draw 2 3yo · F · bp | 099604 | 40 | 24.0 | — |
| — | — | J: · T: M D O'Callaghan · draw 14 3yo · F · gr | 8060 | 53 | 26.1 | — |
| — | — | J: Leigh Roche · T: Alan McIntyre · draw 3 3yo · G · bh | 000881 | 52 | 50.9 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:53 Naas?
No — the AI top pick (Private Larry) was a non-runner or unplaced.
What were the placings in the 16:53 Naas?
Top finishers: 1. Rodeo Blues (IRE) (3.75), 2. Millhone (IRE) (17.00), 3. Point Cartwright (IRE) (3.75).
What was the winning time for the 16:53 Naas?
The winning time was 2m 20.16s, 1.96s slower than standard.
Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org