Who won the 15:45 Doncaster on 23 July 2026?
Ay Up Duck (GB) won the 15:45 Doncaster at SP 12.00. Ridden by Mason Paetel. Trained by Michael Appleby.
15:45 Doncaster
Summer Saturdays At Doncaster Handicap Stakes
6f · Flat · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 8 runners · £4,397 · Thursday, 23 July 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 2ndRace report
- 1stAy Up Duck (GB)Mason Paetel·Michael Appleby11/1·12.00SP
- 2ndAlfa Duplicate (IRE)AI top pick · 53.9Andrew Mullen·Ivan Furtado·beaten 0.3 lengths9/2·5.50SP
- 3rdFrio (GB)Dale Swift·Seb Spencer·beaten 1.75 lengths9/1·10.00SP
Race time
1m 11.89s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Ay Up Duck (GB))
“was slow into stride - settled towards the back - improved position through the middle of the track from 2f out - hit the front inside final 110yds - finished full of running to win comfortably”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way53.9/100 rating
Alfa Duplicate
7.50Betfred
Place portion settles at 2.30 · 1/5 odds · 3 places
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Blue Orbit
Blue Orbit is our selection, narrowly ahead of Frio by just a single pound on our figures after a solid recent finishing sequence including a runner-up effort. Frio, Alfa Duplicate and Ay Up Duck are the chief dangers, with Frio right on Blue Orbit's heels and Alfa Duplicate a handful of pounds further back. It is tight at the top of this Class 5 sprint, but Blue Orbit remains the one to side with on our figures.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Alfa Duplicate
Andrew Mullen · Ivan Furtado · 3yo
Top-rated of 8
score 53.9 · +0.4 clear of next best (53.5)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight70strong12d since last run (quick turnaround)
- Trainer20% weight63averageIvan Furtado: 5/20 winners last 14d (25%)
- Form20% weight50averageLast 6: 1-3-1-6-6-3
- Ratings50% weight49below averageOR 73
MarketBest price 7.50 (Betfred) · 2nd in the market of 8.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Doncaster 6f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–3)
IV 0.96
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.93
High (7–8)
IV 1.11
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 155 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | J: Mason Paetel(5) · T: Michael Appleby · draw 1 3yo · G · ch | 221887 | 75 | 40.3 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 2 | 6 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Ivan Furtado · draw 3 3yo · F · b | 131663 | 73 | 53.9 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 3 | 1 | J: Dale Swift · T: Seb Spencer · draw 5 3yo · C · br | 344 | 75 | 53.5 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 4 | 2 | J: David Egan · T: Charles Hills · draw 2 3yo · G · cht | 103 | 75 | 49.8 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 5 | 8 | J: Lewis Chalkley(7) · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 7 3yo · G · b | 04451 | 67 | 49.6 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 6 | 4 | J: Clifford Lee · T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole · draw 8 3yo · G · b | 24054 | 74 | 47.0 | 15/2·8.50 SP |
| 7 | 5 | J: Edward Greatrex · T: Jack Channon · draw 4 3yo · G · b | 5221 | 74 | 53.1 | 3/1·4.00 SP |
| 8 | 7 | J: Neil Callan · T: William Knight · draw 6 3yo · F · ch | 21343 | 68 | 53.2 | 9/4F·3.25 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:45 Doncaster?
No — the AI top pick (Alfa Duplicate) finished 2.
What were the placings in the 15:45 Doncaster?
Top finishers: 1. Ay Up Duck (GB) (12.00), 2. Alfa Duplicate (IRE) (5.50), 3. Frio (GB) (10.00).
What was the winning time for the 15:45 Doncaster?
The winning time was 1m 11.89s.
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