Who won the 15:10 Nottingham on 30 July 2026?
Supplicate (GB) won the 15:10 Nottingham at SP 2.88. Ridden by Jack Mitchell. Trained by Roger Varian.
15:10 Nottingham
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1m2f · Flat · Class 4 · Good To Firm · 5 runners · £5,757 · Thursday, 30 July 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 15/8F·2.88Race report
- 1stSupplicate (GB)AI top pick · 68.8Jack Mitchell·Roger Varian15/8F·2.88SP
- 2ndCrown Office (GB)Cieren Fallon·William Haggas·beaten .75 lengths2/1·3.00SP
- 3rdSassicaia (IRE)Callum Rodriguez·Owen Burrows·beaten 4.5 lengths9/4·3.25SP
Race time
2m 11.39s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Supplicate (GB))
“Up with the pace early - took over after 4f - two lengths to the good 2f out and pressed on - margin narrowed in the closing stages but held on to win”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.88 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Sassicaia
Sassicaia arrives here on a progressive profile that gives connections genuine reason for optimism over this ten-furlong trip at Nottingham, and a fitness edge over some rivals could prove telling on ground that will suit a horse travelling in the right direction. Affection heads the field on ratings, sitting narrowly ahead of our selection, but Sassicaia's upward trajectory makes that gap less daunting than it might appear on paper, and Crown Office along with Bee Farmer will need to find more than they have shown to threaten. This is an open enough heat and confidence is modest, but the progressive case for Sassicaia is the most compelling angle on the race. **Selection: Sassicaia.**
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Supplicate
Jack Mitchell · Roger Varian · 3yo
Top-rated of 5
score 68.8 · +14.1 clear of next best (54.7)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Trainer20% weight95very strongRoger Varian: 8/21 winners last 14d (38%)
- Form20% weight88very strongLast 6: 5-1-1
- Freshness10% weight65strong69d since last run (rusty)
- Ratings50% weight51averageOR 77
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Nottingham 1m2f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–2)
IV 0.91
Mid (3–4)
IV 0.99
High (5–5)
IV 1.11
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 196 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | J: Jack Mitchell · T: Roger Varian · draw 1 3yo · F · ch | 511 | 77 | 68.8 | 15/8F·2.88 SP |
| 2 | 1 | J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas · draw 4 3yo · G · b | 51046 | 80 | 52.5 | 2/1·3.00 SP |
| 3 | 3 | J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Owen Burrows · draw 5 3yo · G · b | 1435 | 78 | 45.8 | 9/4·3.25 SP |
| 4 | 2 | J: Clifford Lee · T: David Pipe · draw 3 3yo · F · gr | 37113 | 80 | 54.7 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 5 | 4 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Edward Bethell · draw 2 3yo · G · b | 6274 | 77 | 47.7 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:10 Nottingham?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Supplicate, won the race (AI score 68.8).
What were the placings in the 15:10 Nottingham?
Top finishers: 1. Supplicate (GB) (2.88), 2. Crown Office (GB) (3.00), 3. Sassicaia (IRE) (3.25).
What was the winning time for the 15:10 Nottingham?
The winning time was 2m 11.39s.
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