16:38 Epsom

Betfred 'Play Fred's £5 Million' Handicap Stakes

1m2f · Flat · Class 6 · Good To Firm · 10 runners · £3,663 · Friday, 14 August 2026

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E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (10 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Offiah's Boy

No. 3 · score 48.9 · +6.8 clear of next best · best 4/1·5.20

Best value vs consensus

No book currently stands out from the market consensus in this race. Prices refresh every few minutes.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way48.9/100 rating

Offiah's Boy

5.20Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Gretna DreamsDiffers from our pick

Gretna Dreams heads this Class 6 contest at Epsom on a rating narrowly ahead of Mrembo and Pangbourne, and the ten-furlong trip on good-to-firm ground should present no issues, though the closeness of the ratings among the leading trio means this is far from a straightforward race to call. Mrembo and Pangbourne are capable of closing that slim gap, while Celtic Spirit offers a further threat from three pounds further back in the assessments. With confidence modest given how tightly matched the principals are, Gretna Dreams nonetheless holds a slender edge on the figures and is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Offiah's Boy

Taylor Fisher · Joe Tickle · 5yo

Top-rated of 10

score 48.9 · +6.8 clear of next best (42.1)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
70strong
10d since last run (quick turnaround)
Trainer20% weight
68strong
Joe Tickle: 3/11 winners last 14d (27%)
Form20% weight
55average
Last 6: 0-0-5-6-2-1
Ratings50% weight
35weak
OR 52

MarketBest price 5.20 (Betfair Exchange) · 2nd in the market of 10.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(2)
1Mrembo 3Offiah's Boy
Prominent(4)
4Haveagobeau 5Celtic Spirit 8All About George 11Cormorant Rock
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(1)
2Gretna Dreams
Unknown(3)
6Pangbourne 9Lady Margret 10Private Project

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Epsom 1m2f

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.14).

Low (1–4)

IV 0.99

Mid (5–8)

IV 0.87

High (9–11)

IV 1.14

Today: Haveagobeau (draw 10) and Pangbourne (draw 9) get the bias; Celtic Spirit (draw 6) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 119 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
3	Offiah's BoyPick J: Taylor Fisher · T: Joe Tickle · draw 3 · combo 7/31 (23%) 5yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	005621	9-11	52	—	—	48.9	9/2·5.28	5.2·5.20 Betfair Exchange · -2% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20 William Hill7/2·4.50 7Bet7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 Unibet7/2·4.50 Bet Victor7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 BetTom7/2·4.50 10 Bet7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50 CopyBet7/2·4.50 PricedUp Bet7/2·4.50 BetAhoy7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50Octobet7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50talkSPORT BET7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 Star Sports7/2·4.50 Midnite7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Quinn Bet7/2·4.50BestOdds10/3·4.33Boyle Sports10/3·4.33 BresBet10/3·4.33 BetWright10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33
4	Haveagobeau J: Olivia Haines(7) · T: Jim Boyle · draw 10 7yo · G · bDGoing 1/2Only ride	215521	9-08	54	—	—	42.1	8/1·8.81	8.4·8.40 Betfair Exchange · -5% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange8.4·8.40 SmarketsSBK7/1·8.00 BetTom13/2·7.50 BetWright13/2·7.50 BetAhoy13/2·7.50Octobet13/2·7.50LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50 7Bet13/2·7.50BestOdds13/2·7.50CopyBet13/2·7.50 Betano13/2·7.50 Midnite13/2·7.50 Boyle Sports13/2·7.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50 Unibet13/2·7.50 Star Sports13/2·7.50 SportingIndex13/2·7.50 Quinn Bet13/2·7.50 Spreadex13/2·7.50 BresBet13/2·7.50 Bet36513/2·7.50 William Hill13/2·7.50 Coral13/2·7.50 Betfred13/2·7.50 Bet Victor13/2·7.50 10 Bet13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.50talkSPORT BET13/2·7.50 Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 PricedUp Bet6/1·7.00
1	Mrembo J: Hector Crouch · T: Jonathan Portman · draw 4 7yo · M · bpClass dropOn last winning markGoing 1/3Only runner	341454	9-12	58	—	—	39.3	4/1·5.08	4.9·4.90 Betfair Exchange · -4% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange4.9·4.90 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33 BetTom10/3·4.33 SportingIndex10/3·4.33 William Hill10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33Virgin Bet10/3·4.33Star Sports10/3·4.33 CopyBet10/3·4.33 BetAhoy10/3·4.33 Spreadex10/3·4.33Octobet10/3·4.33Bet Victor3/1·4.00 10 Bet3/1·4.00 Midnite3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 Betfred3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00 talkSPORT BET3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00BestOdds3/1·4.007Bet3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 PricedUp Bet3/1·4.00 BresBet3/1·4.00
2	Gretna Dreams J: Pat Cosgrave · T: Stuart Williams · draw 2 · combo 0/11 (0%) 4yo · F · ch	677B3	9-11	57	—	—	38.8	5/1·5.87	5.8·5.80 Betfair Exchange All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange5.8·5.80 Ladbrokes4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00 Coral4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 BetAhoy4/1·5.00 BresBet4/1·5.00 SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00BestOdds4/1·5.007Bet4/1·5.00 Star Sports4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 10 Bet4/1·5.00 PricedUp Bet4/1·5.00Octobet4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00talkSPORT BET4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 CopyBet3.75/1·4.75 Betfred7/2·4.50 Bet36510/3·4.33
5	Celtic Spirit J: David Probert · T: Karen Jewell · draw 6 4yo · G · bpOnly runner	50252	9-07	53	—	—	38.0	10/1·11.16	10.5·10.50 Betfair Exchange · -6% vs fair All 27 books ▾ Betfair Exchange10.5·10.50 SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00 PricedUp Bet9/1·10.00 Bet3659/1·10.00 Ladbrokes17/2·9.50 Coral17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 Quinn Bet17/2·9.50 Spreadex17/2·9.50 William Hill17/2·9.50 Unibet17/2·9.50 Bet Victor17/2·9.50Virgin Bet17/2·9.50talkSPORT BET17/2·9.50 LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50 Betano17/2·9.50 Star Sports17/2·9.50 SportingIndex17/2·9.50 Boyle Sports8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00BestOdds8/1·9.00CopyBet8/1·9.00 BresBet8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00 7Bet8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00
6	Pangbourne J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Roger Teal · draw 9 3yo · F · b	592255	9-03	57	—	—	34.2	11/1·12.33	12.5·12.50 Betfair Exchange All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange12.5·12.50 SmarketsSBK11/1·12.00 Bet36511/1·12.00 PricedUp Bet11/1·12.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 talkSPORT BET10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 BresBet9/1·10.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 William Hill9/1·10.00BestOdds9/1·10.007Bet9/1·10.00 Star Sports9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 BetAhoy9/1·10.00Octobet9/1·10.00CopyBet17/2·9.50
8	All About George J: Josephine Gordon · T: Keiran Burke · draw 1 · combo 1/21 (5%) 4yo · G · bOnly rideOnly runner	07543	9-00	46	—	—	33.3	12/1·12.92	12/1·13.00 SmarketsSBK All 30 books ▾ SmarketsSBK12/1·13.00 Betfair Exchange12.5·12.50 Bet36511/1·12.00 PricedUp Bet11/1·12.00 Betfred10/1·11.00 Betano10/1·11.00 talkSPORT BET10/1·11.00 Bet Victor10/1·11.00 Quinn Bet10/1·11.00 SportingIndex10/1·11.00 Spreadex10/1·11.00 Boyle Sports10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00 Unibet10/1·11.00 Star Sports10/1·11.00 William Hill10/1·11.00 Coral10/1·11.00 BetWright9/1·10.00 CopyBet9/1·10.00 10 Bet9/1·10.00Virgin Bet9/1·10.00LiveScore Bet9/1·10.00 BetTom9/1·10.00 Dragon Bet9/1·10.00 Midnite9/1·10.00 7Bet9/1·10.00 BetAhoy9/1·10.00Octobet9/1·10.00BresBet9/1·10.00BestOdds9/1·10.00
9	Lady Margret J: William Carson · T: Tony Carroll · draw 11 · combo 2/35 (6%) 4yo · F · brOnly rideOnly runner	70806	9-00	46	—	—	32.8	50/1·48.15	40/1·41.00 PricedUp Bet · -15% vs fair All 30 books ▾ PricedUp Bet40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00Octobet40/1·41.00BresBet40/1·41.00BestOdds40/1·41.00Star Sports40/1·41.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 Unibet40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 10 Bet40/1·41.00Virgin Bet40/1·41.00talkSPORT BET40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00 LiveScore Bet40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 CopyBet40/1·41.00 BetAhoy40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Midnite40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 Betfair Exchange40·40.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00
10	Private Project J: J F Egan · T: Pat Phelan · draw 7 3yo · F · bOnly runner	63093	8-08	48	—	—	29.2	25/1·24.66	22/1·23.00 talkSPORT BET · -7% vs fair All 30 books ▾ talkSPORT BET22/1·23.00 Betano22/1·23.00 LiveScore Bet22/1·23.00 Bet Victor22/1·23.00 Ladbrokes22/1·23.00 Bet36522/1·23.00 William Hill22/1·23.00 Coral22/1·23.00Virgin Bet22/1·23.00PricedUp Bet22/1·23.00 Betfair Exchange22·22.00 CopyBet20/1·21.00 BetWright20/1·21.00BestOdds20/1·21.0010 Bet20/1·21.00 Unibet20/1·21.00 BetTom20/1·21.00 Betfred20/1·21.00 Boyle Sports20/1·21.00 Dragon Bet20/1·21.00 BetAhoy20/1·21.00 Spreadex20/1·21.00Octobet20/1·21.00BresBet20/1·21.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 Star Sports20/1·21.00 Midnite20/1·21.00 SportingIndex20/1·21.00 Quinn Bet20/1·21.00 SmarketsSBK18/1·19.00
11	Cormorant Rock J: Tyler Heard · T: Jim Boyle · draw 8 3yo · G · bpFT POnly ride	048554	8-05	45	—	—	28.3	50/1·48.15	40/1·41.00 Octobet · -15% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Octobet40/1·41.00BresBet40/1·41.00 SportingIndex40/1·41.00 Quinn Bet40/1·41.00 BetAhoy40/1·41.00 Spreadex40/1·41.00 talkSPORT BET40/1·41.00 BetWright40/1·41.00BestOdds40/1·41.00Unibet40/1·41.00 BetTom40/1·41.00 Bet Victor40/1·41.00 7Bet40/1·41.00 Star Sports40/1·41.00 Bet36540/1·41.00 William Hill40/1·41.00 Coral40/1·41.00 Betfred40/1·41.00 Boyle Sports40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes40/1·41.00 Betano40/1·41.00 Dragon Bet40/1·41.00 CopyBet40/1·41.00 PricedUp Bet40/1·41.00 Betfair Exchange40·40.00Virgin Bet33/1·34.00LiveScore Bet33/1·34.00 10 Bet33/1·34.00 Midnite33/1·34.00 SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00
—	Time To SparkleNon-runner J: Alice Bond(5) · T: James Keane · draw 5 3yo · F · b	915323	9-03	57	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 27–30 bookmakers per horse with the 17% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Betfred 'Play Fred's £5 Million' Handicap Stakes?

The Betfred 'Play Fred's £5 Million' Handicap Stakes is off at 16:38 on 14 August 2026 at Epsom (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:38 Epsom?

1m2f, Class 6, Flat, 10 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:38 Epsom?

Going is reported as Good To Firm on Turf.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:38 Epsom?

The AI top-rated runner is Offiah's Boy (score 48.9, best price 5.20). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:38 Epsom?

The market favourite is Mrembo at a best price of 4.90. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Offiah's Boy.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org