16:38 Navan

Ireland

Navan Racecourse Handicap

5f · Flat · Good · 16 runners · €9,000 · Wednesday, 2 September 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 6th

1st
Cashel Blue (IRE)
Reese Holohan·K J Condon
16/1·17.00
SP
2nd
Amerilis (GB)
W J Lee·Gillian Scott·beaten .75 lengths
13/2·7.50
SP
3rd
Happy Henry (IRE)
Leigh Roche·W McCreery·beaten .5 lengths
10/1·11.00
SP

Race time

58.68s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Cashel Blue (IRE))

“Handy in the leading group early - asked for effort in second 2f out then hit front approaching final furlong and stayed on strongly to win”

AI top-rated Prairie Girl (score 59.8) finished 6th.

Settled · 1pt level stake = 6.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way59.8/100 rating

Prairie Girl

10.00Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Cuban Grey

Cuban Grey rates 6 lb below the top-rated Bad Boy Rizz on paper, yet the case for preferring him rests on a progressive profile that suggests more improvement to come, allied to a fitness edge that the bare ratings cannot capture in an eighteen-runner sprint on good ground at Navan. Bad Boy Rizz, Dandyville and Treasured Royal are the obvious dangers and must be respected, with the top-rated in particular capable of reversing the ratings deficit if reproducing his best. Cuban Grey is taken to outrun his rating and take this.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Prairie Girl

Terry Casey(7) · Daniel James Murphy · 4yo

Top-rated of 18

score 59.8 · +1.5 clear of next best (58.3)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
24d since last run (race-fit window)
Trainer20% weight
63small sample (n=8)
Daniel James Murphy: 2/8 winners last 14d (25%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Ratings50% weight
55average
OR 83 — highest combined rating in the field
Form20% weight
48below average
Last 6: 1-1-0-4

MarketBest price 10.00 (Betfair Exchange) · 3rd in the market of 18.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Navan 5f

full course data →

Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.11).

Low (1–6)

IV 1.11

Mid (7–12)

IV 0.77

High (13–18)

IV 1.10

Today: Harry's Hill (draw 1) and Cuban Grey (draw 3) get the bias; Prairie Girl (draw 11) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 101 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	17	Cashel Blue J: Reese Holohan(7) · T: K J Condon · draw 10 3yo · F · bpFT P	051350	8-09	62	—	—	34.8	16/1·17.00 SP
2	2	Amerilis J: W J Lee · T: Gillian Scott · draw 15 3yo · F · btp	492621	9-13	80	—	—	49.6	13/2·7.50 SP
3	14	Happy Henry J: Leigh Roche · T: W McCreery · draw 9 5yo · G · b	313159	9-00	66	—	—	58.3	10/1·11.00 SP
4	9	Buddy Batt J: Rory Cleary · T: Tracey Collins · draw 7 5yo · G · ch	31560	9-07	73	—	—	36.6	40/1·41.00 SP
5	5	Gotta Catch'em All J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: H Rogers · draw 2 6yo · G · bb	611293	9-10	76	—	—	44.0	5/1·6.00 SP
6	1	Prairie Girl J: Terry Casey(7) · T: Daniel James Murphy · draw 11 4yo · F · bp	1104	10-03	83	—	—	59.8	6/1·7.00 SP
7	12	Bold Optimist J: Ben Coen · T: Daniel McLoughlin · draw 6 6yo · G · bbFT B	364230	9-02	68	—	—	40.2	8/1·9.00 SP
8	4	Bad Boy Rizz J: Colin Keane · T: Ross O'Sullivan · draw 16 3yo · C · cht	12354	9-12	79	—	—	47.8	4/1F·5.00 SP
9	6	Sovereign Cry J: Jessica O'Gorman(7) · T: Daniel James Murphy · draw 12 3yo · G · bp	691849	9-10	77	—	—	51.2	11/1·12.00 SP
10	13	Treasured Royal J: Gary Carroll · T: Gavin Cromwell · draw 4 3yo · F · bt	453540	9-01	68	—	—	40.7	25/1·26.00 SP
11	16	Gonna Be Golden J: Robert Whearty · T: A Oliver · draw 18 3yo · F · bt	U03606	8-11	64	—	—	35.0	33/1·34.00 SP
12	18	Alnofoor J: Andrew Slattery · T: Ms Claire O'Connell · draw 14 8yo · G · bt	81138	8-07	58	—	—	36.5	22/1·23.00 SP
13	11	Mint Man J: Chris Hayes · T: P J F Murphy · draw 17 5yo · G · btv	480310	9-05	71	—	—	38.3	12/1·13.00 SP
14	3	Cuban Grey J: Luke McAteer · T: Patrick J McKenna · draw 3 6yo · G · grp	179435	9-13	79	—	—	54.0	17/2·9.50 SP
15	15	Beach Barbie J: James Ryan · T: Edward Lynam · draw 5 4yo · F · b	7553	8-12	64	—	—	39.4	22/1·23.00 SP
16	7	Dandyville J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Ms Claire O'Connell · draw 13 8yo · G · ch	70000	9-09	75	—	—	35.2	125/1·126.00 SP
—	—	Harry's Hill J: Paddy Harnett(3) · T: Martin Hassett · draw 1 8yo · G · bt	060621	9-07	73	—	—	54.9	—
—	—	Shadow Of The Moon J: Adam Caffrey · T: John James Feane · draw 8 4yo · F · gtFT T	18020	9-08	74	—	—	36.9	—

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:38 Navan on 2 September 2026?

Cashel Blue (IRE) won the 16:38 Navan at SP 17.00. Ridden by Reese Holohan. Trained by K J Condon.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:38 Navan?

No — the AI top pick (Prairie Girl) finished 6.

What were the placings in the 16:38 Navan?

Top finishers: 1. Cashel Blue (IRE) (17.00), 2. Amerilis (GB) (7.50), 3. Happy Henry (IRE) (11.00).

What was the winning time for the 16:38 Navan?

The winning time was 58.68s.

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