Who won the 15:51 Southwell (AW) on 31 August 2026?
Sailor's Return (GB) won the 15:51 Southwell (AW) at SP 12.00. Ridden by Cieren Fallon. Trained by David O'Meara.
15:51 Southwell (AW)
Southwell Racecourse Conference & Events Handicap Stakes (Div I)
1m · Flat · Class 5 · Standard · 10 runners · £4,397 · Monday, 31 August 2026
Result
AI top pick placed 3rdRace report
- 1stSailor's Return (GB)Cieren Fallon·David O'Meara11/1·12.00SP
- 2ndWield (GB)Luke Morris·Joseph Parr·beaten .75 lengths25/1·26.00SP
- 3rdMayflower Billy (GB)AI top pick · 54.3Sean Levey·Jessica Macey·beaten .5 lengths15/2·8.50SP
Race time
1m 41.81s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Sailor's Return (GB))
“Settled towards the back early - roused into contention approaching the final furlong and hit the front close home to prevail”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 7.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →v1.12.00 score
Vega Storm
5.50Matchbook
segment +9.3% · Flat · Standard · Class 5
Each-way54.3/100 rating
Mayflower Billy
9.80Smarkets
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Filly Eilish
Filly Eilish rates narrowly below the top three on ratings alone, but her progressive profile gives reasonable grounds to think she remains on the upgrade and could outperform that bare comparison at Southwell over this stiff eight furlongs on the all-weather. Legacy Rock heads the field on ratings and must be respected, while Wield and Power Strike are closely matched rivals who will press throughout, making this a competitive Class 5 heat with little margin for error. The case for our selection rests on the belief that she has more to offer than her current figure suggests, though the presence of stronger-rated rivals keeps confidence modest. Filly Eilish is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Mayflower Billy
Sean Levey · Jessica Macey · 3yo
Top-rated of 10
score 54.3 · +2.3 clear of next best (51.9)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight85very strong60d since last run (fresh)
- Trainer20% weight83small sample (n=3)Jessica Macey: 1/3 winners last 14d (33%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
- Ratings50% weight45below averageOR 67
- Form20% weight35weakLast 6: 4-8-2-5-6
MarketBest price 9.80 (Smarkets) · 2nd in the market of 10.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 1m
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–4)
IV 0.96
Mid (5–7)
IV 1.04
High (8–10)
IV 1.01
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 587 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | J: Cieren Fallon · T: David O'Meara · draw 8 3yo · F · btFT T | 446604 | 61 | 39.5 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 2 | 1 | J: Luke Morris · T: Joseph Parr · draw 6 3yo · G · btFT T | 32507 | 70 | 51.9 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 3 | 4 | J: Sean Levey · T: Jessica Macey · draw 9 3yo · G · chp | 48256 | 67 | 54.3 | 15/2·8.50 SP |
| 4 | 9 | Vega Stormv1.1 J: Harry Russell · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 2 3yo · G · b | 350463 | 63 | 45.2 | 11/4F·3.75 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Ivan Furtado · draw 1 3yo · F · b | 326615 | 70 | 43.2 | 3/1·4.00 SP |
| 6 | 3 | J: Billy Loughnane · T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole · draw 10 3yo · G · bt | 411266 | 69 | 40.3 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 7 | 6 | J: Ryan Sexton · T: Julie Camacho · draw 5 3yo · G · ch | 607 | 66 | 30.7 | 17/2·9.50 SP |
| 8 | 5 | J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Joey Ramsden · draw 4 3yo · F · b | 153329 | 67 | 48.4 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 9 | 8 | J: Tom Eaves · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 7 3yo · G · b | 76045 | 65 | 39.8 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 10 | 7 | J: Shay Farmer(5) · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 3 3yo · G · b | 454 | 65 | 43.7 | 28/1·29.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:51 Southwell (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Mayflower Billy) finished 3.
What were the placings in the 15:51 Southwell (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Sailor's Return (GB) (12.00), 2. Wield (GB) (26.00), 3. Mayflower Billy (GB) (8.50).
What was the winning time for the 15:51 Southwell (AW)?
The winning time was 1m 41.81s.
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