Who won the 15:10 Navan on 5 September 2026?
Moltophino (IRE) won the 15:10 Navan at SP 3.75. Ridden by Chris Hayes. Trained by John Andrew Kinsella.
15:10 Navan
IrelandChristmas Parties At Navan Racecourse On 6th & 13th December Handicap
5f · Flat · Good · 8 runners · €15,000 · Saturday, 5 September 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 4thRace report
- 1stMoltophino (IRE)Chris Hayes·John Andrew Kinsella11/4F·3.75SP
- 2ndNamiid (IRE)Ben Coen·J P Murtagh·beaten .75 lengths6/1·7.00SP
- 3rdThunderbear (IRE)Jack Kearney·Stephen Thorne·beaten 4 lengths17/2·9.50SP
Race time
58.85s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Moltophino (IRE))
“Sat handy behind front pair - pressed for effort 2f out - closing in with a furlong left - went ahead in the final 100 yards and stayed on strongly to win”
AI top-rated Amiata (score 59.3) finished 4th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way59.3/100 rating
Amiata
6.40Matchbook
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Erosandpsyche
Erosandpsyche rates 2 points behind the top-rated Thunderbear on paper, but a progressive profile and a fitness edge over that rival make a compelling case for siding with the selection here over this sharp five furlongs on good ground at Navan. Amiata and Namiid are next best on ratings and cannot be dismissed, though they are notably inferior on the figures and will need to find considerable improvement to threaten the principals. With Erosandpsyche holding a fitness edge over Thunderbear and coming here in better trim, the nod goes to Erosandpsyche.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Amiata
Colin Keane · G M Lyons · 3yo
Top-rated of 8
score 59.3 · +0.9 clear of next best (58.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight70strong9d since last run (quick turnaround)
- Form20% weight67strongLast 6: 5-1-4-1-8-1
- Ratings50% weight59averageOR 88 — above field median
- Trainer20% weight48below averageG M Lyons: 5/26 winners last 14d (19%)
MarketBest price 6.40 (Matchbook) · 2nd in the market of 8.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Navan 5f
full course data →Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.11).
Low (1–3)
IV 1.11
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.77
High (7–8)
IV 1.10
Today: Allsortz (draw 2) and Gotta Catch'em All (draw 1) get the bias; Erosandpsyche (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 101 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | J: Chris Hayes · T: John Andrew Kinsella · draw 8 5yo · G · btb | 97992 | 76 | 41.6 | 11/4F·3.75 SP |
| 2 | 4 | J: Ben Coen · T: J P Murtagh · draw 6 3yo · G · bp | 31423 | 82 | 52.3 | 6/1·7.00 SP |
| 3 | 2 | J: Jack Kearney(3) · T: Stephen Thorne · draw 5 6yo · G · btp | 14600 | 93 | 40.8 | 17/2·9.50 SP |
| 4 | 3 | J: Colin Keane · T: G M Lyons · draw 7 3yo · G · b | 514181 | 88 | 59.3 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 5 | 1 | J: Reese Holohan(7) · T: Daniel James Murphy · draw 4 8yo · G · btp | 382582 | 97 | 58.4 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 6 | 7 | J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: H Rogers · draw 1 6yo · G · bb | 112935 | 74 | 41.5 | 6/1·7.00 SP |
| 7 | 5 | J: Luke McAteer · T: David Marnane · draw 2 3yo · G · b | 313074 | 81 | 44.5 | 15/2·8.50 SP |
| 8 | 8 | J: Rory Cleary · T: Ms Claire O'Connell · draw 3 8yo · G · ch | 00000 | 72 | 31.0 | 200/1·201.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:10 Navan?
No — the AI top pick (Amiata) finished 4.
What were the placings in the 15:10 Navan?
Top finishers: 1. Moltophino (IRE) (3.75), 2. Namiid (IRE) (7.00), 3. Thunderbear (IRE) (9.50).
What was the winning time for the 15:10 Navan?
The winning time was 58.85s.
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