16:20 Navan

Ireland

Return Of The Jumps At Navan Racecourse September 19th Handicap (Div I)

1m2f · Flat · Good · 21 runners · €6,000 · Saturday, 5 September 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 2nd

1st
African Affair (IRE)
Robbie Colgan·Ms Sheila Lavery
40/1·41.00
SP
2nd
Make The Tide (IRE)AI top pick · 47.7
W J Lee·W McCreery·beaten 3 lengths
13/8F·2.62
SP
3rd
Nephin Mountain (IRE)
Terry Casey·Michael Mulvany·beaten .5 lengths
10/1·11.00
SP

Race time

2m 6.40s

Race time recorded.

In-running (African Affair (IRE))

“Settled in the pack early - moved up on the inside approaching 2f out - into 5th with a furlong and a half left - shared the advantage a furlong out then went on - stayed on well to the line for victory”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 1.62 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

Each-way45.9/100 rating

Albatala

12.00Betfair Sportsbook

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: God Knows

God Knows heads a large field of 24 at Navan over ten furlongs on good ground, rated five pounds clear of the next best, Pallatine Hills, which represents a meaningful advantage in a competitive race. Pallatine Hills, Neon Eyes and Make The Tide are the chief dangers, yet none can quite match God Knows on the figures, and he rates a confident selection over ten furlongs on this good ground. God Knows is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Make The Tide

W J Lee · W McCreery · 3yo

Top-rated of 24

score 47.7 · +1.8 clear of next best (45.9)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
80very strong
W McCreery: 6/19 winners last 14d (32%)
Freshness10% weight
70strong
3d since last run (quick turnaround)
Ratings50% weight
35below average
OR 53
Form20% weight
35weak
Last 6: 8-6-6-9-0-1

MarketBest price 3.50 (10 Bet) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Navan 1m2f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–8)

IV 1.03

Mid (9–16)

IV 1.05

High (17–24)

IV 0.92

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 52 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	7	African Affair J: Robbie Colgan · T: Ms Sheila Lavery · draw 2 3yo · G · b	008	9-07	57	—	—	33.0	40/1·41.00 SP
2	5	Make The Tide J: W J Lee · T: W McCreery · draw 6 3yo · F · b	866901	9-10	53	—	—	47.7	13/8F·2.62 SP
3	11	Nephin Mountain J: Terry Casey(7) · T: Michael Mulvany · draw 19 3yo · G · ch	051651	9-07	57	—	—	41.3	10/1·11.00 SP
4	10	Mare Crisium J: Shane Foley · T: K J Condon · draw 14 3yo · F · ch	594465	9-07	57	—	—	37.6	17/2·9.50 SP
5	22	Bang Po J: Rory Mulligan(5) · T: Liam McAteer · draw 12 6yo · G · b	900600	8-10	40	—	—	21.2	50/1·51.00 SP
6	8	Alto Sax J: Reese Holohan(7) · T: Peter Fahey · draw 10 5yo · G · bb	192592	9-07	51	—	—	33.2	9/2·5.50 SP
7	24	Giselles Defence J: Paddy Harnett(3) · T: Sean Davis · draw 15 6yo · G · btp	059050	9-08	52	—	—	26.5	16/1·17.00 SP
8	20	Miss Ivor J: Jimmy Dalton(7) · T: P O'Rourke · draw 16 3yo · F · b	00900	8-10	46	—	—	22.6	66/1·67.00 SP
9	15	Chloe's Boy J: Siobhan Rutledge · T: H Rogers · draw 13 3yo · G · bp	00600	9-03	53	—	—	25.5	50/1·51.00 SP
10	3	Pallatine Hills J: Jamie Powell · T: Eddie & Patrick Harty · draw 4 4yo · G · bt	50605	10-02	60	—	—	39.7	11/1·12.00 SP
11	13	Calamint J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Adrian Murray · draw 18 6yo · M · b	76283	9-06	50	—	—	35.0	10/1·11.00 SP
12	16	Kingcharles J: Rory Cleary · T: Kevin Thomas Coleman · draw 5 3yo · C · g	08808	9-03	53	—	—	26.0	28/1·29.00 SP
13	6	Neon Eyes J: Gary Carroll · T: Gavin Cromwell · draw 21 3yo · F · bh	40429	9-10	60	—	—	36.0	9/1·10.00 SP
14	9	Jazz Forever J: Luke McAteer · T: Paul W Flynn · draw 3 6yo · G · gtbFT TB	483000	9-07	51	—	—	26.3	40/1·41.00 SP
15	18	De Songbird J: Sadhbh Tormey(7) · T: T G McCourt · draw 11 3yo · F · ch	760770	8-13	49	—	—	31.1	50/1·51.00 SP
16	19	Cause I Like You J: Wesley Joyce(3) · T: Michael Mulvany · draw 24 3yo · F · btp	652152	8-12	48	—	—	39.7	7/1·8.00 SP
17	21	Capall Cuain J: Gavin Ryan · T: Dermot Kilmartin · draw 7 3yo · F · bhFT H	000	8-07	43	—	—	24.3	125/1·126.00 SP
18	4	God Knows J: Patrick McGettigan(5) · T: P Sweeney · draw 17 7yo · M · b	09070	9-13	57	—	—	27.0	28/1·29.00 SP
19	2	Katherine J: Conor Lamon(10) · T: Adrian Sexton · draw 1 9yo · M · bp	7608	10-02	60	—	—	28.9	100/1·101.00 SP
19	17	Churchill Gale J: James Ryan · T: Dermot A McLoughlin · draw 20 4yo · F · btp	79468	9-00	44	—	—	23.1	50/1·51.00 SP
21	23	Haeret In Pectore J: Chris Hayes · T: A J Martin · draw 8 5yo · G · bt	05506	8-10	40	—	—	37.7	25/1·26.00 SP
—	—	Oh I Do Declare J: Scott McCullagh · T: Richard John O'Brien · draw 22 3yo · G · ch	009	9-04	54	—	—	25.1	—
—	—	Albatala J: Sam Coen(5) · T: John C McConnell · draw 9 7yo · M · bt	26941	10-02	60	—	—	45.9	—
—	—	Wipeawayyourtears J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: Michael Butler · draw 23 3yo · F · bbFT B	23190	9-07	57	—	—	33.0	—

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:20 Navan on 5 September 2026?

African Affair (IRE) won the 16:20 Navan at SP 41.00. Ridden by Robbie Colgan. Trained by Ms Sheila Lavery.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:20 Navan?

No — the AI top pick (Make The Tide) finished 2.

What were the placings in the 16:20 Navan?

Top finishers: 1. African Affair (IRE) (41.00), 2. Make The Tide (IRE) (2.62), 3. Nephin Mountain (IRE) (11.00).

What was the winning time for the 16:20 Navan?

The winning time was 2m 6.40s.

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