Who won the 15:51 Thirsk on 14 September 2026?
Lamlash Bay (GB) won the 15:51 Thirsk at SP 6.00. Ridden by Billy Garritty. Trained by Michael & David Easterby.
15:51 Thirsk
Sapphire Selling Handicap Stakes
6f · Flat · Class 6 · Good · 11 runners · £3,664 · Monday, 14 September 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 7thRace report
- 1stLamlash Bay (GB)Billy Garritty·Michael & David Easterby5/1·6.00SP
- 2ndFan Mail (GB)David Allan·Tim Easterby·beaten 0.3 lengths7/4F·2.75SP
- 3rdDabbling (IRE)Harry Russell·Ollie Pears·beaten 0.3 lengths22/1·23.00SP
Race time
1m 11.18s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Lamlash Bay (GB))
“Set the pace from the start - clear throughout with no serious pressure - eased home comfortably for the win”
AI top-rated Paroda Diva (score 51.0) finished 7th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 6.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way40.7/100 rating
Lamlash Bay
7.00Betfair Exchange
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Wodao
Wodao holds a clear edge over this field on ratings, sitting seven pounds clear of the nearest rival Paroda Diva and with a more substantial advantage over the remainder, making this a straightforward case for his superiority in a competitive Class 6 sprint at Thirsk over six furlongs on good ground. Paroda Diva, Lamlash Bay and Record Day represent the chief dangers and will need to improve to bridge the gap, but nothing in this field gives serious cause for concern. Wodao is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Paroda Diva
Jason Hart · Patrick Neville · 3yo
Top-rated of 11
score 51.0 · +3.4 clear of next best (47.6)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Trainer20% weight73small sample (n=7)Patrick Neville: 2/7 winners last 14d (29%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
- Freshness10% weight70strong13d since last run (quick turnaround)
- Ratings50% weight43below averageOR 64 — above field median
- Form20% weight41below averageLast 6: 4-6-1-2-6-8
MarketBest price 210.00 (Matchbook) · 7th in the market of 11.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Thirsk 6f
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.22).
Low (1–4)
IV 0.73
Mid (5–8)
IV 1.08
High (9–11)
IV 1.22
Today: Paroda Diva (draw 10) and Dabbling (draw 9) get the bias; Why Because (draw 4) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 163 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 7 3yo · G · b | 45159 | 64 | 40.7 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 2 | 6 | J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 6 4yo · G · bv | 534095 | 57 | 37.7 | 7/4F·2.75 SP |
| 3 | 9 | J: Harry Russell · T: Ollie Pears · draw 9 3yo · F · bpFT P | 754360 | 52 | 47.6 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 4 | 5 | J: David Nolan · T: Paul Midgley · draw 4 4yo · F · chh | 64755 | 58 | 39.0 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 5 | 2 | J: Oisin Orr · T: Brian Ellison · draw 8 3yo · G · chbFT B | 893780 | 65 | 35.1 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 6 | 1 | J: Dougie Costello · T: Steph Hollinshead · draw 5 6yo · G · chvFT V | 45969 | 64 | 30.9 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 7 | 3 | J: Jason Hart · T: Patrick Neville · draw 10 3yo · F · b | 461268 | 64 | 51.0 | 6/1·7.00 SP |
| 8 | 7 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 11 4yo · G · bv | 089928 | 56 | 36.5 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 9 | 8 | J: Jack Garritty · T: Mark Walford · draw 2 3yo · F · gr | 56674 | 55 | 35.9 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
| 10 | 11 | J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 1 3yo · G · b | 717770 | 46 | 31.1 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 11 | 10 | J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby · draw 3 3yo · G · bp | 475707 | 47 | 35.7 | 150/1·151.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:51 Thirsk?
No — the AI top pick (Paroda Diva) finished 7.
What were the placings in the 15:51 Thirsk?
Top finishers: 1. Lamlash Bay (GB) (6.00), 2. Fan Mail (GB) (2.75), 3. Dabbling (IRE) (23.00).
What was the winning time for the 15:51 Thirsk?
The winning time was 1m 11.18s.
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