Who won the 16:51 Thirsk on 14 September 2026?
Fractional (GB) won the 16:51 Thirsk at SP 5.00. Ridden by Cieren Fallon. Trained by William Haggas.
16:51 Thirsk
Join Racing TV Today Fillies' Handicap Stakes
1m · Flat · Class 5 · Good · 9 runners · £3,926 · Monday, 14 September 2026
Result
AI top pick wonat SP 4/1·5.00Race report
- 1stFractional (GB)AI top pick · 56.3Cieren Fallon·William Haggas4/1·5.00SP
- 2ndAlways Blue (GB)Sean Dylan Bowen·Harriet Bethell·beaten 1.25 lengths4/1·5.00SP
- 3rdDonna Nook (GB)Daniel Tudhope·David O'Meara·beaten 1.5 lengths3/1F·4.00SP
Race time
1m 39.19s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Fractional (GB))
“Settled towards the back of the pack early - pushed along and made progress over 3f out - urged along with 2f left - moved left with a furlong to run - powered clear late to hit the front inside the final 110 yards - won going away”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way56.3/100 rating
Fractional
6.50Bet Victor
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Donna Nook
Donna Nook heads this nine-runner Class 5 contest at Thirsk on good ground narrowly ahead of Fractional on ratings, and her profile over a mile suggests she is well suited by today's conditions. Fractional represents the most immediate threat and cannot be dismissed lightly, while Always Blue and Alessia Fernanda, both rated 74, give the mid-section of the field genuine competitiveness. That said, Donna Nook's edge at the head of these ratings, over eight furlongs on this ground, makes her the most convincing case in the field, and she is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Fractional
Cieren Fallon · William Haggas · 3yo
Top-rated of 9
score 56.3 · +0.9 clear of next best (55.3)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight85very strong49d since last run (fresh)
- Trainer20% weight63averageWilliam Haggas: 14/57 winners last 14d (25%)
- Form20% weight60averageLast 6: 3-5-2-3-3
- Ratings50% weight47below averageOR 70 — highest combined rating in the field
MarketBest price 6.50 (Bet Victor) · market favourite.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Thirsk 1m
full course data →Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.16).
Low (1–3)
IV 0.82
Mid (4–6)
IV 1.04
High (7–9)
IV 1.16
Today: Fractional (draw 7) and Ravishing Beauty (draw 9) get the bias; Always Blue (draw 3) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 129 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas · draw 7 3yo · F · b | 35233 | 70 | 56.3 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 2 | 7 | J: Sean Dylan Bowen · T: Harriet Bethell · draw 3 3yo · F · ch | 25434 | 69 | 55.3 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 3 | 3 | J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara · draw 5 4yo · F · btv | 144439 | 69 | 43.5 | 3/1F·4.00 SP |
| 4 | 9 | J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 6 3yo · F · bp | 138131 | 66 | 52.3 | 15/2·8.50 SP |
| 5 | 6 | J: Oisin Orr · T: Marcus Tregoning · draw 2 3yo · F · b | 28334 | 69 | 39.9 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 6 | 2 | J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll · draw 8 6yo · M · cht | 867267 | 69 | 47.2 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 7 | 1 | J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 4 5yo · M · b | 25214 | 69 | 46.8 | 15/2·8.50 SP |
| 8 | 4 | J: Kevin Stott · T: Roger Fell · draw 1 4yo · F · b | 930135 | 66 | 47.1 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 9 | 8 | J: P. J. McDonald · T: Jedd O'Keeffe · draw 9 5yo · M · bp | 713348 | 62 | 49.4 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:51 Thirsk?
Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Fractional, won the race (AI score 56.3).
What were the placings in the 16:51 Thirsk?
Top finishers: 1. Fractional (GB) (5.00), 2. Always Blue (GB) (5.00), 3. Donna Nook (GB) (4.00).
What was the winning time for the 16:51 Thirsk?
The winning time was 1m 39.19s.
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