Who won the 14:00 Ayr on 17 September 2026?
Opal Storm (GB) won the 14:00 Ayr at SP 23.00. Ridden by P. J. McDonald. Trained by Brian Rothwell.
14:00 Ayr
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5f · Flat · Class 5 · Good To Soft · 20 runners · £4,711 · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Result
AI top pick was a non-runnerRace report
- 1stOpal Storm (GB)P. J. McDonald·Brian Rothwell22/1·23.00SP
- 2ndThunderstorm Katie (GB)Lauren Young·Jim Goldie·beaten .5 lengths10/1·11.00SP
- 3rdLucius Aurelius (GB)M. P. Sheehy·Kevin Ryan·beaten 0.2 lengths40/1·41.00SP
Race time
1m 2.64s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Opal Storm (GB))
“Settled in the pack towards the near rail - boxed in with 2f left - pushed along and made progress from the furlong marker - stayed on strongly to hit the front close home”
Settled · 1pt level stake = 22.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way61.8/100 rating
Great Profit
11.50Matchbook
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: The Caltonian
The Caltonian stands clearly ahead of the field on ratings, holding a meaningful edge over the next-best Oriental Prince and King's Crown, both of whom must be respected as the chief dangers alongside Vince L'Amour in what is a competitive 21-runner sprint at Ayr. He faces five furlongs on good-to-soft ground here, and the class edge he holds over the bulk of this field looks significant enough to make him a confident proposition. The Caltonian is the selection.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Startling
Jack Nicholls(3) · John Wainwright · 4yo
Top-rated of 21
score 65.9 · +4.1 clear of next best (61.8)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Trainer20% weight100small sample (n=5)John Wainwright: 2/5 winners last 14d (40%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
- Form20% weight86very strongLast 6: 2-4-2-2-1-1
- Freshness10% weight70strong2d since last run (quick turnaround)
- Ratings50% weight43below averageOR 65
MarketBest price 1001.00 (Dragon Bet) · 21st in the market of 21.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ayr 5f
full course data →Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24).
Low (1–7)
IV 1.24
Mid (8–14)
IV 0.98
High (15–21)
IV 0.75
Today: Hi Lord (draw 2) and The Caltonian (draw 6) get the bias; Startling (draw 17) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 122 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | J: P. J. McDonald · T: Brian Rothwell · draw 12 6yo · M · btp | 818946 | 55 | 31.1 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 2 | 6 | J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 11 5yo · M · b | 262916 | 68 | 48.6 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 3 | 18 | J: M. P. Sheehy · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 4 4yo · G · bp | 103898 | 55 | 33.7 | 40/1·41.00 SP |
| 4 | 1 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 9 5yo · G · b | 748261 | 69 | 47.4 | 9/2F·5.50 SP |
| 5 | 21 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: R. Mike Smith · draw 5 3yo · F · ch | 968497 | 52 | 27.9 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 6 | 2 | J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby · draw 7 5yo · G · btb | 790208 | 70 | 43.6 | 17/2·9.50 SP |
| 7 | 12 | J: William Pyle · T: Linda Perratt · draw 3 3yo · G · bh | 508599 | 65 | 39.5 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 8 | 5 | J: Joanna Mason · T: Samantha & Jacqueline Coward · draw 10 5yo · G · b | 694109 | 69 | 37.2 | 50/1·51.00 SP |
| 9 | 16 | J: Jason Hart · T: R. Mike Smith · draw 1 3yo · F · b | 093326 | 62 | 39.6 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
| 10 | 3 | J: Sean Kirrane · T: Michael Dods · draw 21 6yo · G · btp | 653405 | 69 | 41.9 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 11 | 13 | J: Tom Eaves · T: Stephen Hanlon · draw 2 4yo · G · bv | 137305 | 63 | 51.0 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 12 | 4 | J: Barry McHugh · T: Stephen Hanlon · draw 16 3yo · G · b | 822213 | 70 | 61.8 | 15/2·8.50 SP |
| 13 | 15 | J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby · draw 20 5yo · G · btv | 364273 | 62 | 41.0 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 14 | 7 | J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 15 4yo · G · b | 791801 | 68 | 48.4 | 22/1·23.00 SP |
| 15 | 8 | J: Paddy Bradley · T: Linda Perratt · draw 18 5yo · G · b | 040426 | 67 | 43.8 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 16 | 9 | J: Clifford Lee · T: Linda Perratt · draw 6 7yo · G · b | 050543 | 67 | 45.1 | 11/2·6.50 SP |
| 17 | 19 | J: Saffie Osborne · T: Iain Jardine · draw 19 9yo · G · bp | 672637 | 54 | 34.2 | 14/1·15.00 SP |
| 18 | 14 | J: Greg Fairley · T: Wilf Storey · draw 13 5yo · G · bt | 43180 | 62 | 37.4 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 19 | 11 | J: Mark Winn · T: Michael Dods · draw 14 3yo · G · ch | 543474 | 66 | 44.4 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| 20 | 20 | J: Lexie Clarkson(7) · T: Linda Perratt · draw 8 8yo · G · b | 01675 | 51 | 33.3 | 100/1·101.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: John Wainwright · draw 17 4yo · F · bb | 242211 | 65 | 65.9 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:00 Ayr?
No — the AI top pick (Startling) was a non-runner or unplaced.
What were the placings in the 14:00 Ayr?
Top finishers: 1. Opal Storm (GB) (23.00), 2. Thunderstorm Katie (GB) (11.00), 3. Lucius Aurelius (GB) (41.00).
What was the winning time for the 14:00 Ayr?
The winning time was 1m 2.64s.
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