Who won the 14:30 Ayr on 18 September 2026?
Mussab (GB) won the 14:30 Ayr at SP 5.50. Ridden by Oisin Orr. Trained by Richard & Peter Fahey.
14:30 Ayr
British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed Race)
5f · Flat · Class 1 · Soft · 8 runners · £31,190 · Friday, 18 September 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 6thRace report
- 1stMussab (GB)Oisin Orr·Richard & Peter Fahey9/2·5.50SP
- 2ndDubai Champion (IRE)Andrew Mullen·Ben Haslam·beaten 1.25 lengths15/2·8.50SP
- 3rdDance A Jig (GB)Jason Hart·Ralph Beckett·beaten 1 length4/1·5.00SP
Race time
1m 1.64s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Mussab (GB))
“Racing close up in the early stages - upped tempo to challenge 2f out - shaken up to hit the front inside final furlong - held on well to the line”
AI top-rated Nour (score 64.5) finished 6th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 12.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way56.6/100 rating
Mussab
6.40Matchbook
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Hickory Lad
Hickory Lad is narrowly behind the top-rated Mussab on these ratings but is preferred on the strength of a progressive profile that suggests he is still improving, making the pound deficit less significant than it appears on paper. Mussab represents the most obvious threat given his rating advantage, while Dance A Jig and Underdog will also need to be kept firmly in mind on this soft Ayr surface over five furlongs. This is a competitive Class 1 sprint and Hickory Lad's upward trajectory gives him a credible claim, though the margin for error is slim. The selection is Hickory Lad.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Nour
Pierre-Louis Jamin · K. R. Burke · 2yo
Top-rated of 8
score 64.5 · +6.1 clear of next best (58.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight100very strong22d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight80very strongLast 6: 3-3-1
- Trainer20% weight58averageK. R. Burke: 12/53 winners last 14d (23%)
- Ratings50% weight54averageOR 81
MarketBest price 81.00 (Virgin Bet) · 5th in the market of 8.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ayr 5f
full course data →Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24).
Low (1–3)
IV 1.24
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.98
High (7–8)
IV 0.75
Today: Dance A Jig (draw 3) and Dubai Champion (draw 1) get the bias; Hickory Lad (draw 7) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 122 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | J: Oisin Orr · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 4 2yo · C · br | 3361 | 97 | 56.6 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 2 | 3 | J: Andrew Mullen · T: Ben Haslam · draw 1 2yo · C · b | 43120 | 87 | 56.4 | 15/2·8.50 SP |
| 3 | 2 | J: Jason Hart · T: Ralph Beckett · draw 3 2yo · C · bvFT V | 22019 | 96 | 58.4 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 4 | 8 | J: Kaiya Fraser · T: Charlie Fellowes · draw 8 2yo · F · b | 612 | 75 | 53.6 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 5 | 4 | J: Sam James · T: Phillip Makin · draw 7 2yo · C · b | 121383 | 99 | 54.5 | 5/4F·2.25 SP |
| 6 | 7 | J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: K. R. Burke · draw 6 2yo · F · b | 331 | 81 | 64.5 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 7 | 6 | J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer · draw 5 2yo · C · b | 105099 | 82 | 48.8 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 8 | 1 | J: M. P. Sheehy · T: Adrian Keatley · draw 2 2yo · G · chbFT B | 3391 | 74 | 48.6 | 28/1·29.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:30 Ayr?
No — the AI top pick (Nour) finished 6.
What were the placings in the 14:30 Ayr?
Top finishers: 1. Mussab (GB) (5.50), 2. Dubai Champion (IRE) (8.50), 3. Dance A Jig (GB) (5.00).
What was the winning time for the 14:30 Ayr?
The winning time was 1m 1.64s.
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