Who won the 20:30 Southwell (AW) on 22 September 2026?
Solarize (GB) won the 20:30 Southwell (AW) at SP 9.50. Ridden by Daniel Muscutt. Trained by Charlie Johnston.
20:30 Southwell (AW)
Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
1m4f · Flat · Class 3 · Standard · 10 runners · £7,956 · Tuesday, 22 September 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 4thRace report
- 1stSolarize (GB)Daniel Muscutt·Charlie Johnston17/2·9.50SP
- 2ndFierce Fortitude (GB)David Egan·Kevin Philippart de Foy·beaten 1 length4/1·5.00SP
- 3rdTryfan (GB)Hector Crouch·Harry Charlton·beaten 0.05 lengths17/2·9.50SP
Race time
2m 34.26s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Solarize (GB))
“Sat behind pace - urged along 3f out and finding extra from 2f out - hit front inside final furlong - held rally to prevail”
AI top-rated Cliff Danger (score 62.9) finished 4th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →Each-way62.9/100 rating
Cliff Danger
6.80Matchbook
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Topteam
Topteam holds a narrow 2 lb deficit to the joint top-rated pair but brings a progressive profile and a fitness edge that could prove decisive over this twelve-furlong trip on the Southwell all-weather, and those factors tilt the balance in his favour ahead of what looks a competitive heat. Assail and Golden Knight are the primary threats on their ratings, while Fierce Fortitude, 2 lb behind them, cannot be dismissed in a field this open. Confidence is tempered by the strength of the opposition, but the selection's upward trajectory makes a compelling case. The vote goes to Topteam.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Cliff Danger
Kieran O'Neill · Tom Ellis · 3yo
Top-rated of 10
score 62.9 · +2.6 clear of next best (60.3)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Trainer20% weight100small sample (n=4)Tom Ellis: 2/4 winners last 14d (50%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
- Freshness10% weight85very strong37d since last run (fresh)
- Ratings50% weight51averageOR 76
- Form20% weight45below averageLast 6: 6-4-7-9-1
MarketBest price 6.80 (Matchbook) · 3rd in the market of 10.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 1m4f
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–4)
IV 1.05
Mid (5–7)
IV 1.08
High (8–10)
IV 0.88
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 208 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 7 4yo · C · b | 31152 | 86 | 52.9 | 17/2·9.50 SP |
| 2 | 2 | J: David Egan · T: Kevin Philippart de Foy · draw 3 4yo · G · b | 12130 | 89 | 50.8 | 4/1·5.00 SP |
| 3 | 7 | J: Hector Crouch · T: Harry Charlton · draw 9 5yo · G · bp | 920715 | 83 | 54.8 | 17/2·9.50 SP |
| 4 | 10 | J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Tom Ellis · draw 5 3yo · G · b | 64791 | 76 | 62.9 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 5 | 5 | J: David Probert · T: Hugo Palmer · draw 6 7yo · G · b | 089525 | 85 | 46.8 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 6 | 1 | J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding · draw 10 4yo · G · b | 15207 | 90 | 55.8 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 7 | 9 | J: Sam James · T: K. R. Burke · draw 2 3yo · G · b | 312 | 85 | 60.3 | 9/1·10.00 SP |
| 8 | 6 | J: Luke Morris · T: David Simcock · draw 8 6yo · G · ch | 66432 | 83 | 52.2 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 9 | 8 | J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · draw 4 3yo · C · b | 16013 | 89 | 54.4 | 7/2F·4.50 SP |
| 10 | 3 | J: Charles Bishop · T: Neil Mulholland · draw 1 4yo · G · gr | 01317 | 87 | 48.9 | 25/1·26.00 SP |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 20:30 Southwell (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Cliff Danger) finished 4.
What were the placings in the 20:30 Southwell (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Solarize (GB) (9.50), 2. Fierce Fortitude (GB) (5.00), 3. Tryfan (GB) (9.50).
What was the winning time for the 20:30 Southwell (AW)?
The winning time was 2m 34.26s.
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