16:45 Southwell (AW)

Dance Through The Decades Christmas Parties EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

5f · Flat · Class 5 · Standard · 9 runners · £4,320 · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Compare all prices

E/W terms3 places at 1/5 odds (10 runners)· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Plastic Dream

No. 3 · score 55.0 · +6.7 clear of next best · best 5/1·6.20

Best value vs consensus

So Sexy Me

26·26.00 Matchbook · +16% vs fair (consensus 22.34)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 29 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Model testThis race is on v1.0's public test card: Plastic Dream advised 11/2·6.40 (Matchbook), frozen at publication — win or lose, it stays on the ledger.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →

v1.12.37 score

Shaniko

8.00Matchbook

segment +9.3% · Flat · Standard · Class 5

Each-way55.0/100 rating

Plastic Dream

6.20Smarkets

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

No pundit verdict published for this race — the Racing Post covers most but not all races. Our model's view is above.

Why the model rates this top

Plastic Dream

Daniel Muscutt · Chris Dwyer · 2yo

Top-rated of 10

score 55.0 · +6.7 clear of next best (48.3)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Trainer20% weight
75strong
Chris Dwyer: 3/10 winners last 14d (30%)
Freshness10% weight
70strong
10d since last run (quick turnaround)
Form20% weight
50average
Last 6: 4-3-4
Ratings50% weight
46below average
OR 69

MarketBest price 6.20 (Smarkets) · 3rd in the market of 10.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Mixed shape — pace likely to be honest but not lightning.

Front-runners(0)—
Prominent(4)
3Plastic Dream 5Inglewood 6So Sexy Me 10Romotoso
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(2)
4Shaniko 9Picnic Princess
Unknown(4)
2Nushga 7Ghazalia 8Love Always Mollisha

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 5f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–4)

IV 1.09

Mid (5–7)

IV 0.96

High (8–10)

IV 0.94

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 436 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
3	Plastic DreamPick J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Chris Dwyer · draw 7 2yo · F · btClass dropOnly runner	434	9-02	69	—	—	55.0	11/2·6.57	6.2·6.20 Smarkets · -6% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Smarkets6.2·6.20Matchbook6·6.00Betfair Exchange5.8·5.80 SmarketsSBK9/2·5.50 Spreadex9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 SportingIndex9/2·5.50 Star Sports4/1·5.00 Paddy Power4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00Hollywood Bets4/1·5.00Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 10 Bet4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00Midnite4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 William Hill4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 7Bet4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 Betfred7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook7/2·4.50Bet Victor7/2·4.50 Betano7/2·4.50 BetMGM10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33
10	Romotoso J: Harry Vigors(5) · T: William Knight · draw 6 2yo · F · bOnly runner	322	8-10	70	—	—	48.3	9/4·3.13	6/4·2.50 Boyle Sports · -20% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Boyle Sports6/4·2.50Virgin Bet6/4·2.50LiveScore Bet6/4·2.50 William Hill6/4·2.50 Coral6/4·2.50 Betfair Exchange2.48·2.48Matchbook2.48·2.48Smarkets2.44·2.44SmarketsSBK7/5·2.40 7Bet11/8·2.38 BetWright11/8·2.38 Betfred11/8·2.38 SportingIndex11/8·2.38 Spreadex11/8·2.38Hollywood Bets69/50·2.38Midnite11/8·2.38 Paddy Power11/8·2.38 Dragon Bet11/8·2.38 Quinn Bet11/8·2.38 Bet36511/8·2.38Betfair Sportsbook11/8·2.3810 Bet11/8·2.38 BetTom11/8·2.38 Star Sports11/8·2.37 Bet Victor5/4·2.25 BetMGM5/4·2.25 Betano5/4·2.25 Unibet5/4·2.25 Ladbrokes6/5·2.20
4	Shanikov1.1 J: William Carson · T: Craig Lidster · draw 8 2yo · F · bClass dropOnly runner	02442	9-02	72	—	—	47.0	9/1·9.86	10·10.00 Matchbook · +2% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook10·10.00SmarketsSBK9/1·10.00Smarkets9.8·9.80Betfair Exchange9.6·9.60 SportingIndex15/2·8.50 Spreadex15/2·8.50 Unibet15/2·8.50 Quinn Bet7/1·8.00 Paddy Power7/1·8.00 10 Bet7/1·8.00 Midnite7/1·8.00 Star Sports7/1·8.00 Bet36513/2·7.50Hollywood Bets13/2·7.50Dragon Bet13/2·7.50 7Bet13/2·7.50 LiveScore Bet13/2·7.50Virgin Bet13/2·7.50William Hill13/2·7.50Betfair Sportsbook13/2·7.50BetMGM6/1·7.00 Betfred6/1·7.00 Boyle Sports6/1·7.00 BetTom6/1·7.00 BetWright6/1·7.00 Bet Victor11/2·6.50 Betano11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes5/1·6.00 Coral5/1·6.00
5	Inglewood J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(3) · T: Julie Camacho · draw 3 · combo 3/45 (7%) 2yo · F · bh	5232	8-13	68	—	—	44.7	5/1·5.91	5.3·5.30 Matchbook · -10% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook5.3·5.30Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20Smarkets4.9·4.90BetTom7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 Midnite7/2·4.50 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50 SportingIndex7/2·4.50 10 Bet7/2·4.50 Paddy Power7/2·4.50 Quinn Bet7/2·4.50 Unibet7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50 William Hill7/2·4.50 Boyle Sports7/2·4.50Hollywood Bets7/2·4.50Star Sports7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50Betfair Sportsbook10/3·4.33BetMGM10/3·4.33 7Bet10/3·4.33 BetWright10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00 Ladbrokes11/4·3.75
—	Mollisha J: Billy Garritty · T: Brian Ellison · draw 4 2yo · F · bClass dropOnly runner	34	9-02	70	—	—	43.8	11/1·11.83	11.5·11.50 Betfair Exchange · -3% vs fair Compare 20 books ▾ Betfair Exchange11.5·11.50 Coral17/2·9.50 Bet3658/1·9.00Betfair Sportsbook8/1·9.00Star Sports8/1·9.00Hollywood Bets8/1·9.00Paddy Power8/1·9.00 10 Bet8/1·9.00 7Bet8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 BetWright8/1·9.00 Boyle Sports15/2·8.50 William Hill15/2·8.50 Betfred15/2·8.50 BetMGM15/2·8.50 Ladbrokes13/2·7.50Matchbook4·4.00Unibet0.0
2	Nushga J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 1 · combo 8/83 (10%) 2yo · F · b	—	9-02	—	—	—	19.0	11/1·12.48	10·10.00 Matchbook · -20% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook10·10.00Boyle Sports9/1·10.00 Spreadex9/1·10.00 SportingIndex9/1·10.00Betfair Sportsbook9/1·10.00Paddy Power9/1·10.00 Betfair Exchange9.8·9.80Smarkets9.8·9.80Unibet17/2·9.50Virgin Bet17/2·9.50BetWright17/2·9.50 Betfred17/2·9.50 LiveScore Bet17/2·9.50 Bet36517/2·9.50Hollywood Bets17/2·9.5010 Bet8/1·9.00 BetTom8/1·9.00 Midnite8/1·9.00 William Hill8/1·9.00 SmarketsSBK8/1·9.00 7Bet8/1·9.00 Quinn Bet8/1·9.00 Star Sports8/1·9.00 Dragon Bet8/1·9.00 Bet Victor15/2·8.50 Betano15/2·8.50 BetMGM13/2·7.50 Coral11/2·6.50 Ladbrokes11/2·6.50
6	So Sexy Me J: Charles Bishop · T: Adam Kirby · draw 5 · combo 2/23 (9%) 2yo · F · b	65	8-13	—	—	—	15.3	22/1·22.34	26·26.00 Matchbook · +16% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook26·26.00Betfair Exchange24·24.00Smarkets23·23.00SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 Bet36518/1·19.00 10 Bet16/1·17.00 Star Sports16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00Hollywood Bets16/1·17.00LiveScore Bet16/1·17.00Betfair Sportsbook16/1·17.00Paddy Power16/1·17.00 BetTom16/1·17.00 Midnite16/1·17.00 Quinn Bet16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00Virgin Bet16/1·17.00William Hill15/1·16.00 Bet Victor14/1·15.00 Betano14/1·15.00 7Bet14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 BetMGM14/1·15.00 Coral10/1·11.00 Ladbrokes10/1·11.00
9	Picnic Princess J: Barry McHugh · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 10 · combo 1/33 (3%) 2yo · F · bOnly pairing	58	8-10	—	—	—	14.3	80/1·88.05	70/1·71.00 7Bet · -19% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ 7Bet70/1·71.00 BetTom66/1·67.00 Betfred66/1·67.00 Boyle Sports66/1·67.00Hollywood Bets66/1·67.00Midnite66/1·67.00 Quinn Bet66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00 William Hill66/1·67.00 Star Sports66/1·67.00 LiveScore Bet66/1·67.00Virgin Bet66/1·67.00Paddy Power66/1·67.00 Bet36566/1·67.00 10 Bet66/1·67.00 BetWright60/1·61.00 Dragon Bet60/1·61.00Matchbook60·60.00Betfair Sportsbook50/1·51.00BetMGM50/1·51.00 Bet Victor50/1·51.00 Betano50/1·51.00 Unibet50/1·51.00Smarkets42·42.00SmarketsSBK40/1·41.00 Ladbrokes33/1·34.00 Coral33/1·34.00 Betfair Exchange19.5·19.50
7	Ghazalia J: Taryn Langley(5) · T: Hilal Kobeissi · draw 9 2yo · F · bOnly runner	45	8-10	—	—	—	14.0	33/1·34.17	32·32.00 Matchbook · -6% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Matchbook32·32.00Bet36528/1·29.00 Betfair Exchange27·27.00 Unibet25/1·26.00 Star Sports25/1·26.00 10 Bet25/1·26.00 SportingIndex25/1·26.00 Spreadex25/1·26.00 BetTom25/1·26.00 Quinn Bet25/1·26.00 Boyle Sports25/1·26.00 Paddy Power25/1·26.00Hollywood Bets25/1·26.00LiveScore Bet25/1·26.00 Coral25/1·26.00Virgin Bet25/1·26.00Smarkets24·24.00Betfair Sportsbook22/1·23.00Betfred22/1·23.00 Midnite22/1·23.00 Dragon Bet22/1·23.00 BetWright22/1·23.00 William Hill22/1·23.00 SmarketsSBK20/1·21.00 7Bet20/1·21.00 BetMGM20/1·21.00 Bet Victor20/1·21.00 Betano20/1·21.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00
8	Love Always J: Libby Swallow(7) · T: Ollie Sangster · draw 2 · combo 0/7 (0%) 2yo · F · bClass dropOnly rideOnly runner	0	8-10	—	—	—	12.0	150/1·132.74	100/1·101.00 Coral · -24% vs fair Compare 29 books ▾ Coral100/1·101.00 10 Bet100/1·101.00 BetTom100/1·101.00 Betfred100/1·101.00 Boyle Sports100/1·101.00Hollywood Bets100/1·101.00Quinn Bet100/1·101.00 Star Sports100/1·101.00 William Hill100/1·101.00Betfair Sportsbook100/1·101.00Paddy Power100/1·101.00 Unibet100/1·101.00 LiveScore Bet100/1·101.00Virgin Bet100/1·101.00Bet365100/1·101.00 Bet Victor80/1·81.00 Betano80/1·81.00 Dragon Bet80/1·81.00 7Bet80/1·81.00 BetWright80/1·81.00 Midnite80/1·81.00 BetMGM66/1·67.00 Ladbrokes66/1·67.00 SportingIndex66/1·67.00 Spreadex66/1·67.00Matchbook50·50.00Smarkets38·38.00SmarketsSBK33/1·34.00 Betfair Exchange25·25.00

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 19–29 bookmakers per horse with the 31% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Dance Through The Decades Christmas Parties EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)?

The Dance Through The Decades Christmas Parties EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race) is off at 16:45 on 26 September 2026 at Southwell (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 16:45 Southwell (AW)?

5f, Class 5, Flat, 9 runners declared.

What is the going for the 16:45 Southwell (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 16:45 Southwell (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Plastic Dream (score 55.0, best price 6.20). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 16:45 Southwell (AW)?

The market favourite is Romotoso at a best price of 2.50. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Plastic Dream.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org